EP, 94, 2021082206, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1043W, 30, 1004, DB,
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/
EPAC: MARTY - Remnants
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Nancy Smar
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EPAC: MARTY - Remnants
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AlphaToOmega
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InfernoFlameCat
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ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion
Grace is generating serious convection right now. Wow. Reminds me of Iota as a tropical storm.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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AlphaToOmega
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ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion
1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and
offshore of the coast of west-central Mexico is associated with
the remnants of Grace. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next day or so while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
offshore of the coast of west-central Mexico is associated with
the remnants of Grace. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next day or so while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Will this be named Grace, or get an EPac name?
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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AlphaToOmega
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
aspen wrote:Will this be named Grace, or get an EPac name?
If it survives as a tropical cyclone when it crosses, it keeps its name. If it dissipates when it crosses and reforms in a new basin, it gets a new name. In this case, the Remnants of Grace will get a new name because it did not survive as a tropical cyclone when it crossed Mexico.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
aspen wrote:Will this be named Grace, or get an EPac name?
Marty will be the EPAC name.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Epac is hyperactive
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Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942021 08/22/21 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 56 56 54 48 44 41 40 38 37 34 33
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 56 56 54 48 44 41 40 38 37 34 33
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 42 42 38 33 28 24 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 9 7 10 12 11 10 9 11 7 10 15 17 15 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 3 1 1 3 0 3 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 72 80 74 81 53 56 97 92 110 101 134 168 199 186 186 188 192
SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.6 27.4 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.4 24.4 24.5 23.3 23.1 23.7 24.3
POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 156 154 152 140 129 125 121 116 108 109 109 97 94 100 105
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 6 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 76 76 72 68 62 59 58 54 50 49 42 37 34 29
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 8 10 11 10 14 14 12 11 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 82 78 74 81 78 84 52 35 38 44 47 44 19 0 6 15 11
200 MB DIV 52 59 40 40 25 20 21 -2 10 17 -15 -55 -22 11 -13 -4 -17
700-850 TADV 3 4 1 -3 -10 -3 6 8 3 7 5 3 9 14 20 16 20
LAND (KM) 10 94 191 299 414 458 646 815 1029 1190 1402 1689 1975 1955 1685 1439 1224
LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.7 20.9 20.8 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 104.3 105.7 106.9 108.2 109.5 112.5 115.5 118.2 121.0 123.8 126.6 129.8 133.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 13 15 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 14 11 11 9
HEAT CONTENT 22 19 18 17 14 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 23. 21. 19. 17. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 8. 8. 4. 3. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 26. 26. 24. 18. 15. 11. 10. 8. 7. 4. 3.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 104.3
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 08/22/21 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 5.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.49 3.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.98 0.8
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 20.4% 17.3% 16.3% 0.0% 16.1% 14.5% 11.7%
Logistic: 3.7% 22.2% 10.2% 4.4% 1.3% 5.1% 2.1% 2.5%
Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.0% 14.6% 9.2% 6.9% 0.4% 7.1% 5.6% 4.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 08/22/21 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942021 08/22/21 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 56 56 54 48 44 41 40 38 37 34 33
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 56 56 54 48 44 41 40 38 37 34 33
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 42 42 38 33 28 24 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 9 7 10 12 11 10 9 11 7 10 15 17 15 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 3 1 1 3 0 3 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 72 80 74 81 53 56 97 92 110 101 134 168 199 186 186 188 192
SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.6 27.4 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.4 24.4 24.5 23.3 23.1 23.7 24.3
POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 156 154 152 140 129 125 121 116 108 109 109 97 94 100 105
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 6 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 76 76 72 68 62 59 58 54 50 49 42 37 34 29
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 8 10 11 10 14 14 12 11 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 82 78 74 81 78 84 52 35 38 44 47 44 19 0 6 15 11
200 MB DIV 52 59 40 40 25 20 21 -2 10 17 -15 -55 -22 11 -13 -4 -17
700-850 TADV 3 4 1 -3 -10 -3 6 8 3 7 5 3 9 14 20 16 20
LAND (KM) 10 94 191 299 414 458 646 815 1029 1190 1402 1689 1975 1955 1685 1439 1224
LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.7 20.9 20.8 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 104.3 105.7 106.9 108.2 109.5 112.5 115.5 118.2 121.0 123.8 126.6 129.8 133.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 13 15 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 14 11 11 9
HEAT CONTENT 22 19 18 17 14 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 23. 21. 19. 17. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 8. 8. 4. 3. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 26. 26. 24. 18. 15. 11. 10. 8. 7. 4. 3.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 104.3
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 08/22/21 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 5.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.49 3.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.98 0.8
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 20.4% 17.3% 16.3% 0.0% 16.1% 14.5% 11.7%
Logistic: 3.7% 22.2% 10.2% 4.4% 1.3% 5.1% 2.1% 2.5%
Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.0% 14.6% 9.2% 6.9% 0.4% 7.1% 5.6% 4.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 08/22/21 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942021 08/22/21 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 45 48 52 53 50 45 39 36 32 32 33 32 32
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 45 48 52 53 50 45 39 36 32 32 33 32 32
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 40 38 35 30 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 6 9 14 11 16 11 14 12 10 9 11 9 13 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 4 0 0 3 1 2 1 -2 -2 -2 -6 0 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 88 88 96 41 22 78 89 85 97 107 136 171 184 193 201 184 196
SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.3 26.4 26.1 26.1 25.3 24.7 25.1 24.8 24.3 24.5 24.3 24.7 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 152 152 149 129 126 126 118 111 116 113 107 108 106 109 108
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2
700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 75 74 71 66 62 60 56 51 50 47 44 40 39 38
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 12 13 16 15 15 14 13 11 9 8 6 6 6 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR 79 81 84 78 69 72 47 61 55 65 68 66 46 26 21 19 19
200 MB DIV 72 55 33 21 23 21 -2 -3 21 1 -37 -47 -36 -1 -15 -17 -27
700-850 TADV 4 2 -3 -13 -11 3 5 3 2 5 3 5 2 6 7 9 6
LAND (KM) 103 209 317 413 416 568 753 950 1159 1346 1618 1914 2103 1832 1592 1393 1216
LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.2 20.0 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 105.8 107.1 108.4 109.6 111.1 114.1 117.0 119.8 122.7 125.6 128.6 131.8 134.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 14 14 15 15 13 11 10 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 19 18 16 14 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 22. 20. 18. 18. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 18. 22. 23. 20. 15. 9. 6. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 105.8
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 08/22/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.56 3.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 0.6
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 17.7% 16.1% 15.3% 0.0% 13.9% 12.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.9% 13.2% 5.9% 2.1% 0.4% 1.8% 1.0% 1.9%
Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.5% 10.7% 7.4% 5.8% 0.1% 5.2% 4.4% 0.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 08/22/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942021 08/22/21 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 45 48 52 53 50 45 39 36 32 32 33 32 32
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 45 48 52 53 50 45 39 36 32 32 33 32 32
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 40 38 35 30 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 6 9 14 11 16 11 14 12 10 9 11 9 13 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 4 0 0 3 1 2 1 -2 -2 -2 -6 0 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 88 88 96 41 22 78 89 85 97 107 136 171 184 193 201 184 196
SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.3 26.4 26.1 26.1 25.3 24.7 25.1 24.8 24.3 24.5 24.3 24.7 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 152 152 149 129 126 126 118 111 116 113 107 108 106 109 108
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2
700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 75 74 71 66 62 60 56 51 50 47 44 40 39 38
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 12 13 16 15 15 14 13 11 9 8 6 6 6 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR 79 81 84 78 69 72 47 61 55 65 68 66 46 26 21 19 19
200 MB DIV 72 55 33 21 23 21 -2 -3 21 1 -37 -47 -36 -1 -15 -17 -27
700-850 TADV 4 2 -3 -13 -11 3 5 3 2 5 3 5 2 6 7 9 6
LAND (KM) 103 209 317 413 416 568 753 950 1159 1346 1618 1914 2103 1832 1592 1393 1216
LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.2 20.0 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 105.8 107.1 108.4 109.6 111.1 114.1 117.0 119.8 122.7 125.6 128.6 131.8 134.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 14 14 15 15 13 11 10 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 19 18 16 14 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 22. 20. 18. 18. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 18. 22. 23. 20. 15. 9. 6. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 105.8
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 08/22/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.56 3.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 0.6
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 17.7% 16.1% 15.3% 0.0% 13.9% 12.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.9% 13.2% 5.9% 2.1% 0.4% 1.8% 1.0% 1.9%
Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.5% 10.7% 7.4% 5.8% 0.1% 5.2% 4.4% 0.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 08/22/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Great example that if a tropical system has a strong mid level circulation and shear is in its favor it can redevelop after passing through high mountains when is back over water.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Epac is hyperactive
No where near hyperactive
Is slightly above average.
3 likes
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 100 miles west of the coast of west-central Mexico are
becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later today or on Monday while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
located about 100 miles west of the coast of west-central Mexico are
becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later today or on Monday while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Yellow Evan
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Eye Feature on Visible?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
That’s dry air.-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
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- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: That’s dry air.
Thanks, that looked weird . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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EquusStorm
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Having the vigorous anticyclone aloft from a former major hurricane certainly can't hurt things...
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: That’s dry air.
I think the Anti cyclone is helping the outflow tremendously, generating an eye feature that normally would not be present over a weak system like that.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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