tropicwatch wrote:If the remnants of Ian enters the Atlantic and becomes a sub-tropical system. Will it still be named Ian?
I'm not sure. I thought it merged with the frontal boundary, but it is possible that a distinct LLC remained in place. That would be the key in being designated "Remnants of Ian" vs. 92L or 93L (and the next name).
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Oct 03, 2022 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
That seems fair. If the NHC places an area there, and we confirm that it would be named Ian if it somehow developed, then it comes back? Otherwise, I think it would go in the 92L, 93L or whatever thread.
Sanibel wrote:I went to the Town Counsel at the Crown Plaza and got the point in that the spoil islands were not a good idea...Their saving money by making spoil islands came at more expense than they were worth...A continuous raised, piered span would have survived intact and made getting back to the island much faster and less expensive...The Causeway failed where Earthen Abutment met concrete span...And the spoil islands returned to the sea...
Yup, absolutely. A continuous span bridge is the way to go. The surge just wiped out the sandbars...
Death doll due to Ian now sits at 107, 100 of which in Florida (source = https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/03/us/hurricane-ian-florida-recovery-monday/index.html). So the first 100+ death hurricane for Florida since the 1935 Labor Day hurricane. And with the thousands of people still unaccounted for according to The Guardian I'm afraid the number of deaths might keep climbing over the coming days
Waay before Ian was named, I recall Larrywx making a statement that there was an increased risk of a major Gulf threat given how past third year -ENSO years have featured such a similar kind of pattern.
Seriously, wow, what a great prediction.
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Category5Kaiju wrote:Waay before Ian was named, I recall Larrywx making a statement that there was an increased risk of a major Gulf threat given how past third year -ENSO years have featured such a similar kind of pattern.
Seriously, wow, what a great prediction.
I also predicted the 'Big one' would be in the Caribbean and into the GoM at the beginning of September to occur in Late September into October, what are the odds of that!?
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The Guardian reporting that up to 10,000 people are unaccounted for. Don't know where they got that number though and I have a feeling it's sensationalist. I'm sure that will be drastically lowered but the toll being in the hundreds is already bad enough.
galaxy401 wrote:The Guardian reporting that up to 10,000 people are unaccounted for. Don't know where they got that number though
Interesting article. Thank you for posting. I didn't hit a paywall.
I'm always curious about these kind of reports myself..."About 10,000 people are still unaccounted for, and 1.7 million people have been driven from their homes"
Being able to account for the location of 1.7 million people who evacuated just days earlier (or chose not to) seems like sort of an unrealistic and ill-defined concept (accounting) to begin with. I'm sure they came up with the number from an emergency management official's quote or statement, so context is missing from the report.
Category5Kaiju wrote:Waay before Ian was named, I recall Larrywx making a statement that there was an increased risk of a major Gulf threat given how past third year -ENSO years have featured such a similar kind of pattern.
Seriously, wow, what a great prediction.
Thank you for acknowledging this. More specifically, the heightened threat this season was for the Gulf coast of FL per the 8 third year cold ENSO analogs as every one was active there and much more active there than any other location in the entire basin for landfall.
On another note in case it wasn't seen in the Ian models thread since hardly anyone is looking at that now:
Now I'll look at how these models did for the SC landfall for Ian by looking at the 9/26 12Z through 9/30 0Z runs: * = goes offshore FL
12Z 9/26: CMC just E of Columbus, GA GFS Albany, GA Euro Columbus, GA Icon SE GA *UKMET CHS
0Z 9/27: CMC 100 miles NW of Gainesville, FL GFS Gainesville, FL Euro: JAX *ICON: SAV *UKMET: CHS
12Z 9/27: CMC just SW of JAX GFS JAX *Euro just S of SAV *ICON Beaufort *UKMET CHS
0Z 9/28: CMC JAX *GFS HHI *Euro HHI *ICON CHS *UKMET 20 mi NE of CHS
12Z 9/28: *CMC Beaufort *GFS HHI *Euro HHI *ICON CHS *UKMET just SW of MB
Based on the above, I'm giving these grades for the four days of runs preceding the SC Ian landfall:
CMC D GFS C- Euro C- ICON B UKMET A
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On another message board someone asked why Ian's eyewall seemed to be stronger in the western eyewall than the eastern eyewall. And if so, why it seemed to be that way. I took a guess and decided to examine recon some.
I don't know, but a few guesses. I also want to take the time to just go over some recon data in the storm which gets a bit off topic of the question.
I hadn't looked at recon for Ian yet. I just took a look at the last three missions prior to landfall. I'll go through the images at the end. Just taking a quick look at it, based on 30 second observations in which the hurricane hunters estimate the highest 10 second surface wind estimate in that 30 second period, Ian's left side did have stronger winds before landfall when the storm had not yet reached the coast. (surface wind estimated by SFMR instrument) Closer to landfall, and at landfall, the winds didn't seem to be much different in terms of the highest winds on the left or right side. (of course surge was worse south of the landfall point due to onshore winds) However, that is in terms of the highest wind found. There did seem to be a larger area of intense winds on the left side at landfall. (left side of the track) So it might be likely that more areas to the left of the track would see the intense winds than on the right side in this case.
However, due to the storm being a lot more on land, increasingly so, as it got closer to landfall, there were less areas to sample the highest 10 second estimated surface winds. That requires that be done over water that isn't too shallow. So at landfall there won't be as much surface wind that recon can estimate, including the right side of the storm. That might also partly explain some of the low values in the images I have below.
The pressure had stopped falling nearing landfall, becoming more steady, so it did seem like intensification had stopped leading up to landfall. I haven't examined enough data to determine if the storm was still around the same strength or if it weakened any just before landfall. I don't know where to get free radar velocity data that would allow me to see what the radar estimated velocities are high up in the storm to see how that changed approaching landfall. So there might be some data to indicate the storm stayed at the same strength that it was a bit earlier. Also, sometimes it takes time for surface winds to catch up. And, as the storm got closer to land, there was less areas of water to sample so some of the lower wind values might be misleading.
As for why it was more intense on that side, I don't know. Maybe dry air on the right side?
Dry air on the south side of Ian's circulation limited the amount of rain that fell to the right side of its track, but the hurricane's intensity, large size, and relatively slow forward speed (30% slower than average) allowed it to dump prodigious amounts of rain along the left side of the track.
"Fresh northeast winds will develop north of the weakening boundary Thu through Sat night, including the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and high pressure that builds over the southeastern U.S."
0605 UTC Tue Oct 4 2022:
"Fresh NE winds will develop north of the weakening boundary Thu through Sat night, including the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and high pressure that builds over the southeastern U.S."
It was windy in Tennessee where I had evacuated to.
Now for some images I created. I didn't observe the storm closely in real time, like looking at recon at the time and creating images that had recon matched up to satellite and radar. But here are some observations.
Some images are important to show that in terms of wind, some areas got significant wind, but you don't have to go far for the wind to be drastically lower.
Some of these images are chaotic that I created. I took a look at last three recon missions before Florida landfall. Best track data from the NHC is the white line. White round icons are vortex messages where the aircraft fixed the center. (and the surface pressure) Because of a big eye, they don't quite line up with the track. Also, since the best track points are every 6 hours, and I just draw a line between points, the storm would have curved some between points which is probably why vortex icons further out from landfall don't line up too closely.
First image is drawing a red line from the center point to the point along the pass of the plane where they last estimated 100mph 10 second surface winds. The yellow icon with a label in miles per hour is the highest 10 second estimated surface wind along that segment from the center to the last 10 second 100mph estimated surface wind. You can see that overall, further out from landfall there were some much higher estimated surface winds on the left side of the storm. (10 second estimates, not 1 minute sustained like the NHC advisory winds are) White lines that are somewhat faint are the track of the planes.
This is the same image as the last one, only with all the recon data from those missions added into the view:
Looking at just the last mission prior to landfall. I've taken off extra red lines. The red lines on the image now represent the path of the plane. I have highest 10 second estimated surface winds labeled for each segment coming into or out of the center. But I also added the point at which the wind along the track of the plane reached major hurricane strength. (111mph or more) Or a value just under it. So when the plane reached it, saw the highest wind, and then was nearly out, or out, of that area of major hurricane force 10 second estimated surface winds. (a major hurricane would be 111mph 1 minute sustained, again this is a 10 second estimate)
This is the last pass the plane made in which they covered an entire pass across the storm. They started from southeast of the center, went through the center and then went toward the northwest. I have labeled every point long the line that was about 50mph or more. (aside from the center itself) Each wind barb, and here each yellow icon, is every 30 seconds. Every 30 seconds they report various data, including the highest 10 second estimated surface wind over that period. The next images show it a little closer as some of the labels ended up being slightly out of order when zoomed this far out.
In this center pass they dropped a dropsonde and measured a pressure of 939mb at the surface.
You can see that to the left of the track, there was a large area of more intense winds along the track. Again though, some of the storm had already moved on land so at this point higher winds may have already moved onshore. While the winds at the center are calm, out ahead of the center, perpendicular to the track of the plane in this pass, the coast, like the landfall point of Cayo Costa, may have been just about to get out of the intense winds. We're just seeing this cross section of the storm, not what the winds were out ahead of the storm. Cayo Costa would have gotten intense winds in the northeast quadrant as the storm moved northeast, then calm winds at the center, and then they would have gotten the southwest quadrant of the storm. They didn't simply get the low winds that this image indicated they were soon to get.
Even closer images, so you can see various communities. Look at the difference between 132mph wind and 115mph wind. Extrapolating that out to the coast, you can see what a big difference there could be in wind damage from Englewood to South Venice for example. (scale in bottom left corner) Knowing these difference is important for people that went through the storm. First off, these are not sustained winds. (Perhaps the sustained wind could be near some of these values, but you need some other information to help make a good estimation) Second, people might think they got a near category 5 hurricane because of the advisory wind speeds. But it's important for them to know what winds they were more likely to have gotten where they are specifically.
I haven't gone over it too much. But obviously Fort Myers Beach received some catastrophic surge. Shallow water off the western coast of Florida helps a storm build up a lot of water. I don't know what kind of winds some of these areas officially got, but you can see that that the area of most intense winds southeast of the center might have been around Sanibel and Fort Myers Beach if you extrapolate out from here. Again, higher values may have occurred already by this point or closer to the coast where the plane didn't sample. Some of the highest values were to the southeast of the center in comparison to the northwest pass the plane made exiting the center. So Fort Myers Beach might have seen about the worst winds and surge. I don't know how bad the surge was south of there, but you might quickly get out of the intense wind field south of there. Again, scale in bottom left corner. Look at the 137mph, 128mph, 111mph and then 88mph. A quick drop off. 4.7 miles from 137mph to 111mph. 7.2 miles from 137mph to 88mph.
In the previous recon mission, the 30 second highest flight level wind (which is measured) was 173mph. Highest 10 second flight level wind (also measured, and is the highest 10 second flight level wind over the 30 second period) was 184mph. These are at flight level. NHC advisories use 1 minute sustained surface wind. Highest 10 second surface wind estimate was 158mph. I include two images here because the flight level winds were higher in one for 10s and higher in the other for 30s. I left mapped the complete pass the last mission before landfall had made. It's uncertain based on just the data I reviewed whether the storm may have weakened before landfall or if higher winds were simply not sampled. (perhaps in part because it was already partly on land)
I won't get into it, but here are the sondes that last mission dropped. To see data from them you can go here:
But the yellow icon represents where the sonde was released. The sonde icon represents where the last wind was reported, which is usually just above the surface before it falls into the ocean. I connected a red line between them to see the estimated path it would have taken. They go far when the wind is powerful. Sondes record momentary winds, even shorter than a gust. I'm not sure, but maybe something like a quarter of a second or half of a second. So those winds can be expected to be higher than surface or flight level winds. But because they don't simply drop from the plane straight down to the surface, looking at sonde data can be confusing. A sonde can be slung out of the eyewall. So it might look like the wind is a lot lower at the surface when in reality it is no longer in the eyewall by the time it reaches the surface. So you have to look at where it lands. I would want to see what satellite or radar imagery looked like at the time, so I didn't go over this data much.
And if I could just add, people should evacuate when they are told to. (and if a city or county government drags their feet on evacuation orders, you may need to decide earlier than they do) You must prepare for the worst and hope for the best. For some this was the worst case scenario and for some of those they didn't prepare for the worst case scenario. For those not in the areas where there is catastrophic damage, make sure to consider where you are in relation to the core of strongest winds or where surge was worst south of the landfall point. Often, people think they survived a hurricane like this with little damage because maybe their house is built better than they think. In reality, it's probably because they just didn't get the core of strongest winds. Some people have really well built houses that can withstand a pretty powerful hurricane. But I would say most don't. (and you don't want to stay and chance it even with a well built house, because you don't really know how well it was built, like if they cut corners) And when it comes to surge, you just don't mess with surge. There's absolutely nothing you can do to stop surge if you stay.
It is interesting and also sad to note that Hurricane Ian is already more damaging than other historic hurricanes like Irma and Sandy.
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