ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[weeniepatrol]

2 AM outlook adds TS likelihood to the discussion

Good catch!

[Nimbus]

Shear in the NW Carribean appears to be waning this morning.
If the TUT low further north off the Carolinas fills in the shear forecast could change.
That isn't forecast but its one of those 10% minority scenarios that has to be ignored until it isn't.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[SFLcane]

Curved band this morning on satellite. Still a work in progress but it’s getting there.

[cane5]

Can someone please issue a timeline to when they think the first bands will be reaching the Florida Peninsula…thank you.

[jlauderdal]

2.13 in last night's rain event, over 5 since Saturday, NE Fort Lauderdale. South Florida has been worked over the last week so 5+ will cause issues. The precip output is worth looking at but it can't nail down training which is where the real action will be in this setup and it that could be from the keys to Central Florida, don't focus on landfall as it's not a wind event. Interesting to see the Euro and GFS trending toward a slower solution. Happy Hunting and make a donation to s2k, whatever you can you do, I made mine yesterday. Webhosting, etc. isn't free and when we get a big Atlantic system with 100s looking at the board and posting, it requires a robust hosting solution.

[wxman57]

Can someone please issue a timeline to when they think the first bands will be reaching the Florida Peninsula…thank you.

By around 9am-10am tomorrow for the Keys, early afternoon for the southern Peninsula. Rain ending early afternoon Saturday as the center nears.

[Chemmers]

Looks like wind shear is trying to back off, does anyone know if they are sending a recon today

[jlauderdal]

Looks like wind shear is trying to back off, does anyone know if they are sending a recon today

It's planned but these things can change, I see no reason they wouldn't go today.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml


000
NOUS42 KNHC 011631
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT WED 01 JUNE 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-006

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 02/1600Z C. 03/0400Z
D. 22.0N 86.5W D. 22.0N 86.5W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2130Z E. 03/0530Z TO 03/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. FIX

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 03/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 03/0915Z
D. 22.5N 86.0W
E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: THIS PRODUCT, THE TCPOD, OUTLINES TASKED NHC, CPHC, AND NCEP
OPERATIONAL WEATHER-RECONNAISSANCE FLYING REQUIREMENTS. IT WILL BE
ISSUED DAILY NO LATER THAN 1830 UTC THROUGH 30 NOVEMBER BY THE CHIEF,
AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE COORDINATION, ALL HURRICANES (CARCAH) UNIT OF THE
U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE COMMAND'S 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON.

$$
WJM

NNNN

[wxman57]

I'm surprised the NHC hasn't started PTC advisories yet, since squalls with possible TS winds may reach the keys tomorrow afternoon. Should be a TS watch out (or a warning).

[aspen]

I'm surprised the NHC hasn't started PTC advisories yet, since squalls with possible TS winds may reach the keys tomorrow afternoon. Should be a TS watch out (or a warning).

Based on the 8am TWO, this will probably get labeled as PTC-1 sometime today. They said advisories might be needed later in the day, so they’ll most likely start PTC advisories at 5pm instead of 11am.

[cycloneye]

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion
of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level
winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or
tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys,
and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required
for some of these areas later today.

1. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during
the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida
and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern
Bahamas on Saturday. These heavy rains could cause scattered to
numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

I'm surprised the NHC hasn't started PTC advisories yet, since squalls with possible TS winds may reach the keys tomorrow afternoon. Should be a TS watch out (or a warning).

Based on the 8am TWO, this will probably get labeled as PTC-1 sometime today. They said advisories might be needed later in the day, so they’ll most likely start PTC advisories at 5pm instead of 11am.

Also, they may wait for the recon data this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Low just north of Cozumel.

A 1004 mb low pressure is centered just north of Cozumel, Mexico
near 21N87W at 0900 UTC, moving slowly northeastward. This low
is embedded within a broad area of low pressure that is located
near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery
shows disorganized clusters of scattered to numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection within this area of broad low
pressure over the waters north of 15N and west of 79W. Strong
east to southeast winds were highlighted by overnight ASCAT data
passes over this part of the Caribbean. Despite strong upper-
level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical
depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for some of these areas later today. This
system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours.

[NDG]

I am sure the recon this afternoon will find strong enough winds but the question is if it will find a well defined LLC, which as of this morning I don't see it yet.
SLPs have continued dropping during the past 24 hrs.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1532326998202368003

[ouragans]

My bet would be PTC at 11AM, then after Recon, TD or straight to TS at 5PM. First TS force winds are expected for Cuba in the next 36 hours, and next 48 hours for SoFla

[NDG]

http://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1532326998202368003?s=21&t=8NB-nBKzywu5H67Ylp0gaA

CoC is definitely inland right now over the NE tip of the Yucatan P by looking at the radar loop and surface observations.

[cycloneye]

Low on NE tip of Yucatán.

[cycloneye]

Closeup.

[AutoPenalti]

Window for intensification is starting to close. Shear likely to pick up again tonight into tomorrow.