EPAC: DARBY - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Upgraded to a 90 kt Cat 2 in a special advisory. At this rate, it’ll be a Cat 4 by the end of the day. Its current structure reminds me of Hector ‘18.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Darby continues the Darby streak!!!
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Eye has cleared out. Easily a major hurricane. Maybe a cat 4. Finally a storm that was able to mature without pesky shear.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
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skyline385
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
A. 05E (DARBY)
B. 11/1130Z
C. 14.6N
D. 122.7W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T5.5/5.5
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 5.5 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE AVERAGE
DT CALCULATED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS 5.3, WITH A PEAK DT OF 6.0 AT
1030Z. MET IS 5.0 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND AND THE PT IS 5.5. FT
IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT, WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS
AT THIS TIME.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
B. 11/1130Z
C. 14.6N
D. 122.7W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T5.5/5.5
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 5.5 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE AVERAGE
DT CALCULATED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS 5.3, WITH A PEAK DT OF 6.0 AT
1030Z. MET IS 5.0 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND AND THE PT IS 5.5. FT
IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT, WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS
AT THIS TIME.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Wow, Cat 3.
EP, 05, 2022071112, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1228W, 105, 968, HU
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Eye has warmed a lot, definitely on way to cat 4 if not already.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Darby really is on a massive streak when it comes to hitting major again and again.
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Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Darby really is on a massive streak when it comes to hitting major again and again.
It’s remarkable how it has always ended up as a 100-105kt/958-968mb Cat 3 in every season since 1992. However, Darby ‘22 will probably be the first one to reach Category 4 intensity. It might already be the strongest Darby in terms of wind speed because ADT/Dvorak supports 110-115 kt.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2022 Time : 132032 UTC
Lat : 14:34:47 N Lon : 123:05:59 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 953mb / 112kts
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : +8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -66.7C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2022 Time : 132032 UTC
Lat : 14:34:47 N Lon : 123:05:59 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 953mb / 112kts
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : +8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -66.7C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Sun is coming up, should see some spectacular visible imagery. Buzzsaw.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Man that is one symmetrical storm. Buzz saw is right. The eye is warming further too, amazing how far it’s come since last night
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Hurricane Darby Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
0315 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022
...DARBY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
Recent satellite imagery indicates that Darby has continued to
rapidly strengthen overnight. Darby is now a category 3 hurricane
with estimated maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h). This
new intensity will be incorporated into the next full advisory
before 5 AM HST.
$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
0315 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022
...DARBY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
Recent satellite imagery indicates that Darby has continued to
rapidly strengthen overnight. Darby is now a category 3 hurricane
with estimated maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h). This
new intensity will be incorporated into the next full advisory
before 5 AM HST.
$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2022 Time : 135032 UTC
Lat : 14:33:36 N Lon : 123:12:35 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 951mb / 115kts
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.3 6.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km
Center Temp : +16.9C Cloud Region Temp : -66.5C
Date : 11 JUL 2022 Time : 135032 UTC
Lat : 14:33:36 N Lon : 123:12:35 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 951mb / 115kts
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.3 6.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km
Center Temp : +16.9C Cloud Region Temp : -66.5C
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Nancy Smar
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2022 Time : 142032 UTC
Lat : 14:37:11 N Lon : 123:19:48 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 949mb / 117kts
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km
Center Temp : +16.0C Cloud Region Temp : -65.9C
Scene Type : EYE
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2022 Time : 142032 UTC
Lat : 14:37:11 N Lon : 123:19:48 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 949mb / 117kts
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km
Center Temp : +16.0C Cloud Region Temp : -65.9C
Scene Type : EYE
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