ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

[MGC]

Biloxi had some strong thunderstorms this morning which could have delayed recon.

99L is looking real close to being a TC would not be surprised if recon finds a TC later today.......MGC

[Iceresistance]

Biloxi had some strong thunderstorms this morning which could have delayed recon.

99L is looking real close to being a TC would not be surprised if recon finds a TC later today.......MGC

Yeah, the storms blew through Southern Mississippi earlier today.

[wxman57]

I have an advisory typed up. Taking a center inland about 75 miles south of Brownsville (near 25N) tomorrow evening as a 35 kt TS. Very small system. May not get much from it in south TX. Not totally unexpected. Would help if ASCAT could pass over the region or recon would investigate. It's probably still lacking a circulation, but that's hard to tell. Pretty sure the NHC won't let another low move inland without calling it at least a depression. Increasing northerly winds/shear along the TX coast tomorrow should keep it in Mexico.

[Kingarabian]

Deeper convection would help it fend off some shear effects over the next 36-48 hours i believe.

[jaguars_22]

Wxman!! Should? What happens if that wind shear doesn’t get there quick enough?

[skyline385]

I have an advisory typed up. Taking a center inland about 75 miles south of Brownsville (near 25N) tomorrow evening as a 35 kt TS. Very small system. May not get much from it in south TX. Not totally unexpected. Would help if ASCAT could pass over the region or recon would investigate. It's probably still lacking a circulation, but that's hard to tell. Pretty sure the NHC won't let another low move inland without calling it at least a depression. Increasing northerly winds/shear along the TX coast tomorrow should keep it in Mexico.

With how this season has been going, ASCAT would probably miss it as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1560651437566087168?t=xd871MV3H83O6_qzx4A19w

Err behaving as planned with respect to what? Not as the models for sure…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He’s giving himself a Pat on the back.

[Kingarabian]

I think the odds are getting lower and lower of this going into Mexico and not directly moving over some part of Texas. The only thing showing a Mexico landfall is the models who have never acknowledged this system to begin with.

[Stormcenter]

Doesn’t it bother anyone that the GFS and
others models seem to be out to lunch with 99L?
I mean they show nothing.

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1560651437566087168?t=xd871MV3H83O6_qzx4A19w

Err behaving as planned with respect to what? Not as the models for sure…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Speaking of which. Somebody here 2 saturdays ago said watch Texas 17-19th range. Might be a day off.

[weeniepatrol]

[Kingarabian]

Doesn’t it bother anyone that the GFS and
others models seem to be out to lunch with 99L?
I mean they show nothing.

They've been bad in the short term since 2019. Used to it by now.

[Edwards Limestone]

The globals need a complete overhaul. Something is wrong.

[ElectricStorm]

Certainly need to watch for an overperformer here IMO. Not sure what's going on with the models but they seem to have no clue. My initial guess yesterday was a 35-40kt TS at landfall but I think I'm going to have to raise that. If it gets going quickly (which it seems like it is) I think it could bring TX into play which would also likely lead to a stronger storm. Can't ever trust anything in the gulf, that's for sure, hopefully recon gets out there soon.

[skyline385]

Still going, cold tops continue to expand


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmmm... where is recon..

we have towers firing and rotating around where the center likely is. This could be well on its way as a TS.

[wxman57]

I am not sure that there is anything wrong with the models. This may well be just a wave axis currently, as they had been predicting. Don't be too quick to draw conclusions without any supporting data. ASCAT descending pass clipped Barbados at 13Z. At the rate data is coming in, it could pass the BoC by late this afternoon.

[Kingarabian]

IMO looks like Ivette just before it was classified a TD.

[skyline385]

I am not sure that there is anything wrong with the models. This may well be just a wave axis currently, as they had been predicting. Don't be too quick to draw conclusions without any supporting data. ASCAT descending pass clipped Barbados at 13Z. At the rate data is coming in, it could pass the BoC by late this afternoon.

Wasn’t there radar data yesterday showing a MLC?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LarryWx]

I think this is a TC already and will likely reach TS status soon.