ATL: DANIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Joe B thinks that Danielle will become a Major Hurricane later on.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1565398435443916804

[CrazyC83]

CDO coverage with embedded center in shallow cloud tops = T3.5?

[tolakram]

I love storms like this. I can't do Dvorak but hopefully some other experts will chime in.

[Ntxw]

Earlier raw T #s could've been higher but it is curved band now, bit less symmetrical so harder for center fix. It's quite high latitude so cloud temps probably won't get too cold.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 SEP 2022 Time : 222020 UTC
Lat : 38:06:06 N Lon : 44:27:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 1002mb / 35kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : -8.3C Cloud Region Temp : -47.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in LT GRAY

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

TXNT21 KNES 020010
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DANIELLE)

B. 01/2330Z

C. 37.9N

D. 44.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...6.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 2.5 BASED
ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 3.0. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO THE PULSING CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[galaxy401]

^ That is Danielle's you posted.

[cycloneye]

^ That is Danielle's you posted.

Yeah. Moved here.

[ElectricStorm]

05L DANIELLE 220902 0000 38.0N 44.1W ATL 55 999

[Teban54]

Not often do you see rotating hot towers at 38°N:

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

55 kt is likely too low. This is probably a hurricane right now with those dual rotating hot towers. Unfortunately, the shallow convection typical of high latitude systems will make intensity estimates a little funky.

[Hurricane Mike]

I wouldn't be surprised if Danielle cranks to 115 mph and becomes a major out to sea hurricane. Wait and see.

[Hammy]

Seems like at least 70kt at the moment

[Teban54]

Oddly I think Danielle is the best looking storm globally at the moment. Hinnamnor is suffering from upwelling, and right now it looks like a shell of its former self.

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 SEP 2022 Time : 045024 UTC
Lat : 37:53:23 N Lon : 43:31:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 999mb / 41kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.1 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -50.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 42nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1018mb

Satellite Name : GOES16
Satellite Viewing Angle : 54.9 degrees

****************************************************

[CrazyC83]

Since the water temperatures are about 28C despite its latitude, surface translation of winds shouldn't be an issue like with some other storms at high latitudes. That looks like T4.5 to me, and T5.0 if it can hold up for a while. I'd go with 75 kt and a Special Advisory.

[Kingarabian]

CDO coverage with embedded center in shallow cloud tops = T3.5?

If we add an eye feature (which there is), it's an easy 4.5. Per Dvorak, this is a Cat.2.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if the NHC is going to acknowledge the new developments with an upgrade or just wait until 09Z (5 am EDT)? They could either go with a Tropical Cyclone Update or a Special Advisory.

[Kingarabian]

Should be a special advisory for sure. I would go 85kts. IR/NightVIS show a clear eye. IR/VIS Eye means hurricane... Tropical storm's only have mid level microwave eyes.

[Extratropical94]

Still not a hurricane as per 06Z Best Track

AL, 05, 2022090206, , BEST, 0, 379N, 436W, 60, 996, TS