ATL: FIONA - Models

[tolakram]

CMC goes south, way south (end of run).

[ElectricStorm]

12z HWRF blows it up into a hurricane, HMON very weak and much further south

[Fancy1001]

Is anyone else laughing at the GFS run

[skyline385]

OTS on Euro most likely




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[Jr0d]

CMC goes south, way south (end of run).

https://i.imgur.com/Y0tpdRm.gif

Interesting feature developing off the NE CONUS and moving SW on that run. Not sure what to make of it.

So far the CMC is the outlier with the others take it north.

[pgoss11]

Is anyone else laughing at the GFS run

I had a good laugh. It’s always good to be in the bulls eye 10 days out

[aspen]

12z Euro reminds me of Isaias, with its general path (NECar into Bahamas and up) and interaction with Hispaniola.

[AtlanticWind]

Models showing pretty big differences in upper air pattern one run to the next in the 144 hours+
I wouldnt put too much stock in the long range at this point.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro recurves.

If you prefer the more dominant global models, it's favoring a sharp turn north somewhere after the Islands...

[BobHarlem]

12z ukmet ends at roughly the same place the 12z euro has it at 144 hours. Best bet right now is into Hispaniola then a right turn through the se Bahamas, probably will recurve after that, but hard to be sure right now. 5pm track probably will start to show the curve north at the end. 12z euro does bend east a lot more toward Bermuda though and doesn't get as far north although hard to tell if its a cyclonic loop or not with the ECFAST 24 hour blocks.

[AutoPenalti]

Interesting thread.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1570102505048080385

[AtlanticWind]

The end of Euro it drifts east, could be getting trapped

[Hammy]

So the Euro with a general left/west bias recurves early, GFS with a recurve bias goes up the coast, and Canadian with a general east/right bias goes into the Gulf

[wxman57]

12Z GFS looks "funky". It's way slower in reaching NE Caribbean.

[AutoPenalti]

The Euro ensembles with a huge spread.

[sma10]

The Euro ensembles with a huge spread.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fco878wXgAYmkG8.png

That's about as huge a spread as you can get. This is definitely a job for LarryWx.

[BobHarlem]

18z earlies, notale that the TVCN shifted to curve from Hispaniola to over Puerto Rico and Stays east of the Bahamas. NHC track probably shifts right at 5PM, although not a whole lot since the GFS may be a bit too fast.

[skyline385]

EPS 12Z, lots of spread as mentioned above




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[SoupBone]

18z earlies, notale that the TVCN shifted to curve from Hispaniola to over Puerto Rico and Stays east of the Bahamas. NHC track probably shifts right at 5PM, although not a whole lot since the GFS may be a bit too fast.
https://i.imgur.com/8ezdCtu.gif

CMC is alone on an island. I'm curious why it thinks that ridge will be more potent and shunts this thing that far west.

[LarryWx]

The Euro ensembles with a huge spread.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fco878wXgAYmkG8.png

To clarify, those 12Z EPS members at 240 which are located from NE of PR to the LAs to those MHs NE of the Leewards as well as those S of PR and Hisp. in the Caribbean are actually from the AEW now just off Africa.