ATL: IAN - Models

[caneseddy]

I have this " wilma " type vibe with 98L not so much intensity but track. We shall see

https://i.postimg.cc/FFGRVmzt/wilma.png

Had the same thought..kept remembering how early model runs showed the hook around Tampa area or points north and then they slowly shifted south until the hook occurred around Naples area

Still too early to know one way or the other

[toad strangler]

The keys I think are the speed of 98L/Hermine and the trough incoming. There's strong support for a powerful trough coming down around the end of September.

If I may, I agree, with my limited knowledge and understanding, to me it just makes sense, a tropical system responding to the influence of a trough, and moving on a path accordingly, and I feel the models are displaying this.

Yes but we there is little confidence on timing of both the trough and it's placement with the actual location of the modeled storm in the later hours which will mean everything in terms of a final outcome.

[caneseddy]

I have this " wilma " type vibe with 98L not so much intensity but track. We shall see

https://i.postimg.cc/FFGRVmzt/wilma.png

Had the same thought..kept remembering how early model runs showed the storm hooking towards Tampa area or points north and then they shifted south until the hook took it over extreme SW Florida and SE Florida

Still too early to know one way or the other

[hurricane2025]

Will know more Friday, long ways to go

[CrazyC83]

At this juncture, anything from the western Gulf Coast to a track just west of Fiona is all reasonable.

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS Density / Mean / Deterministic:

HWRF / HMON (not likely):

[skyline385]

12Z EPS active as expected




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[toad strangler]

https://i.ibb.co/fQBb5g5/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Gulf-of-Mexico-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-2.gif

Wow cool run through all the hours. Get a much better perspective than choosing a static image.

[ConvergenceZone]

At this juncture, anything from the western Gulf Coast to a track just west of Fiona is all reasonable.

Yea, although I don't think an "out to sea" track will happen, but I guess it's possible, depends on the timing of the trough like you mentioned

[Spacecoast]

12z ECENS:( similar to 0z)

[aspen]

12z GEFS Density / Mean / Deterministic:
https://i.ibb.co/GCs9HWZ/cfh.jpg
HWRF / HMON (not likely):
https://i.ibb.co/gFHy902/cfi.jpg

HMON has been pretty bad with TCG recently. First it kept trying to kill off Fiona’s precursor and send it south of the model consensus. Now it’s doing the same for 98L.

[skyline385]

Has to be the most active EPS so far




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[tolakram]

12Z model runs to max 240hrs

EURO


GFS


CMC


UKMET


ICON

[blp]

I don't know if this was posted but the CMC Ensembles are way east of the OPS.

[Blown Away]

18z Update

[toad strangler]

Happy Hour 18z GFS def. faster than 12z

[LarryWx]

Besides the last few GFS runs, all other credible operational models keep this very weak for several more days, well into the Caribbean. Also, note that the 18Z GFS is the weakest it has been at the LAs since the 0Z 9/19 run. So, even the GFS is signaling that these last few runs will likely turn out to be too aggressive that far east. The map of TC origins during Sept 21-30 says that if it doesn't become a TD by the LAs (the likely case right now), it will almost certainly wait at least for another 800-1000 miles after which all bets are off on nondevelopment. So, I'm expecting no TD formation before at the very least 70W. But I fully expect this to become a big deal by the W Caribbean, regardless.

[Hurricaneman]

The trough on the 18zGFS is stronger and digging more than the 12z, makes it farther west before the turn but a stronger trough will probably end up with a similar spot to the 12z in the big bend or Panhandle so we’ll see what the rest of the run shows

[Jelmergraaff]

GFS (18z) gets it all the way to the western edge of Cuba, but the intensification is a lot less in the Carribian compared to the 12z (run).

[Jelmergraaff]

The trough on the 18zGFS is stronger and digging more than the 12z, makes it farther west before the turn but a stronger trough will probably end up with a similar spot to the 12z in the big bend or Panhandle so we’ll see what the rest of the run shows

Once 98L nears the GOM the intensification is incredibly fast according to this GFS-run. However, short term (again) less agressive.