EPAC: ROSLYN - Remnants

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1583641644208779266

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.imgur.com/FsLQiHl.jpg
Patricia, lol
This is not RI. More like EWRC

That pass is old. over 3 hours old.

[Iceresistance]

Hold up! Is she already developing an eye?


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/65399943.gif

[HurricaneBelle]

https://i.imgur.com/FsLQiHl.jpg
Patricia, lol
This is not RI. More like EWRC

There has to be an eye for an EWRC. This probably just core consolidation at this point

More like an eyewall establishment cycle

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1583644062330257409

[cheezyWXguy]

The eye is rapidly becoming defined. Should be quite the intensity jump overnight if trends continue

[Astromanía]

I love how everyone bring queen Patricia to the topic
Edit: yeah the eye is coming up

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 105.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES



Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

Roslyn has become even better organized on satellite images. The
system has a fairly symmetrical central dense overcast (CDO)
containing extremely deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80
deg C. There are a number of convective bands surrounding the CDO,
and the upper-level outflow pattern is well-defined. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are now at 77 kt,
so the advisory intensity is increased to 75 kt, making the cyclone
a hurricane. Objective Dvorak estimates are somewhat lower at this
time, but these will likely catch up to the subjective intensity
values soon. Roslyn is a rather compact hurricane, with its
inner-core region covering an area about 30 n mi in diameter.

Center fixes from geostationary and microwave imagery indicate that
the motion continues to be west-northwestward, or about 295/6 kt.
The track forecast scenario is basically unchanged from the previous
advisory package. A mid-level anticyclone to the north of the
hurricane is shifting eastward as a broad trough approaches the Baja
California peninsula. This evolution of the steering pattern should
result in Roslyn turning northward and north-northeastward over the
next 36 hours. The official track forecast is about the same as the
previous one and is near the eastern side of the model guidance
suite. This is also very close to the latest corrected model
consensus, HCCA, prediction.

Roslyn is expected to remain within a low vertical shear environment
into Saturday, with some increase in shear beginning in 24 hours or
so. Further strengthening seems likely during the next 12 to 24
hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification index shows a 40 percent
chance for a 25-kt intensity increase in 24 hours. Therefore the
official intensity forecast, although it is above the deterministic
guidance, may be conservative and it is certainly possible that
Roslyn could become a major hurricane before landfall.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it
passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast of
Mexico late Saturday and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a
potentially dangerous storm surge. A Hurricane Warning is in effect
for a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 16.7N 105.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 17.6N 106.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 19.3N 106.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 24.4N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Astromanía]

Way a conservative forecast

[Iceresistance]

Complete CMG ring with a LG eye rapidly warming up, the ADT is broken.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Uh-oh-not-Roslyn.png

[bahamaswx]

Beautiful little storm right now. Looks great.

[PavelGaborik10]

Genuinely shocked they aren't forecasting a major out of this....

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Instantaneous DT of 6.0.

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.imgur.com/FsLQiHl.jpg
Patricia, lol
This is not RI. More like EWRC

Where is the outer eyewall? Core is really small so tough for microwave to resolve.

[cheezyWXguy]

With a core that small and a rapidly clearing eye, this is probably nearing major status now

[ElectricStorm]

I'm surprised NHC kept the peak at 95kts, this will probably be stronger than that by morning at this rate, maybe getting pretty close to that now even.

Edit: Yep it's already there

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
100 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...ROSLYN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 105.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

[Yellow Evan]

Eye OW now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Popping out now. It is always amazing how the eye just appears