ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

We always hear about an October surprise for hurricane season, but it turns out it's actually the November surprise instead.

Late start to the season, oct becomes november

[robbielyn]

Agreed that CFL mets do not seem to be downplaying this.

I went to his YT page and his video was very very comprehensive and thorough.

Can you supply a link to his channel, I went there but could find any data about this storm.

Thks

Mr. Weatherman — the . belongs there title is Major system could become a hurricane

[jlauderdal]

AL, 98, 2022110612, , BEST, 0, 206N, 668W, 30, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 220, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039, SPAWNINVEST, al732022 to al982022

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982022.dat

Here comes the hwrf, that will get everyone excited.

Hwrf is delivering eye candy on the models thread, shocking.

[robbielyn]

A hurricane approaching FL from the east in the 2nd week of November... I gotta see it to believe it and as of now i just don't. I do believe a big storm with a large gale and storm force windfield is possible if not likely. I could see a massive beach erosion event from the mid atlantic southward at the very least. I do agree with the Tampa bay area mets tamping down the hype squad on this side of the state as of now..but a nice offshore breeze with some passing party squalls in November sounds amazing.

Remember Kate 1985. And 1935 storm. So it’s believable just not typical but it’s unusually warm feels like early october. They told us we could have a back ended season. Time will tell.

[cycloneye]

1 PM TWO:

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located more than 200 miles north of Puerto
Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northward and then
northwestward into the southwestern Atlantic where environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or
so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or
west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle part
of this week where additional development is possible.

Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf,
and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States
coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this
week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the
progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by
early Monday. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and in products from your local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[psyclone]

WPB Local Meg did a terrific Facebook Live explaining the situation,
He’s not downplaying the situation at all.

Here on the West coast Friday Denis Phillips on the Tampa ABC affiliate was saying he is not worried about this at all.
Not judging him but not too smart to go out on a limb and give a false sense of security to viewers even though thats what they really want to hear.

I know i saw that and turned off part way through. I liked him for Ian but didn’t like his dismissiveness of the GFS for 98L.

He's playing the odds and dumping needed water on the social media panic squad, there's plenty of time to change course if that's appropriate. Backdoor storms typically aren't a big deal here...they tend to lack precip and wind is of an offshore component. The threat is to the east coast. a substantial beach eater with nasty conditions over multiple high tide cycles could pose a real threat for those areas. Looks like good drinking conditions for west coasters at this point..

[HurricaneBelle]

He's playing the odds and dumping needed water on the social media panic squad, there's plenty of time to change course if that's appropriate. Backdoor storms typically aren't a big deal here...they tend to lack precip and wind is of an offshore component. The threat is to the east coast. a substantial beach eater with nasty conditions over multiple high tide cycles could pose a real threat for those areas. Looks like good drinking conditions for west coasters at this point..

Unless of course it crosses the state at a lower latitude and then heads north and northeast in the Gulf as some models show.

[LarryWx]

2 PM TWO:

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located more than 200 miles north of Puerto
Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northward and then
northwestward into the southwestern Atlantic where environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or
so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or
west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle part
of this week where additional development is possible.

Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf,
and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States
coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this
week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the
progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by
early Monday. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and in products from your local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Note they say a "storm" instead of just a "depression" (as they said on the 8AM TWO) is likely to form. More aggressive wording for sure.

[psyclone]

He's playing the odds and dumping needed water on the social media panic squad, there's plenty of time to change course if that's appropriate. Backdoor storms typically aren't a big deal here...they tend to lack precip and wind is of an offshore component. The threat is to the east coast. a substantial beach eater with nasty conditions over multiple high tide cycles could pose a real threat for those areas. Looks like good drinking conditions for west coasters at this point..

Unless of course it crosses the state at a lower latitude and then heads north and northeast in the Gulf as some models show.

even then what's the most we could get over here? Probably not much. It should be interesting weather but i can't imagine it getting bad over this way for those of us on land. A gale over the marine environment with some passing squalls and showers. WPC qpf limits the good stuff to the east coast and that seems like a reasonable solution.

[MetroMike]

Here on the West coast Friday Denis Phillips on the Tampa ABC affiliate was saying he is not worried about this at all.
Not judging him but not too smart to go out on a limb and give a false sense of security to viewers even though thats what they really want to hear.

I know i saw that and turned off part way through. I liked him for Ian but didn’t like his dismissiveness of the GFS for 98L.

He's playing the odds and dumping needed water on the social media panic squad, there's plenty of time to change course if that's appropriate. Backdoor storms typically aren't a big deal here...they tend to lack precip and wind is of an offshore component. The threat is to the east coast. a substantial beach eater with nasty conditions over multiple high tide cycles could pose a real threat for those areas. Looks like good drinking conditions for west coasters at this point..

Yes about the avoiding all out panic on social media is one thing but totally dismissing a respecting model that showed a Florida hit a week ago Saturday and has been remarkably consistent is bordering on a disservice.
Hype is sometimes what people need for planning purposes.
Ok its November and nothing can happen in the tropics of note. In past years yes this has been largely true, but we have a very strange setup atmospherically and anything is on the table including a fast moving hurricane traversing the state.

[ronjon]

Here's what I took away from 2 pm TWO. Seems PTC might go up tonight at some point.

Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the
progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by
early Monday.

[SFLcane]

Nhc two…

Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the
progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by
early Monday.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've said it before, but always be wary of an Atlantic storm that is forced west. Nothing good comes of it.

[Michele B]

He's playing the odds and dumping needed water on the social media panic squad, there's plenty of time to change course if that's appropriate. Backdoor storms typically aren't a big deal here...they tend to lack precip and wind is of an offshore component. The threat is to the east coast. a substantial beach eater with nasty conditions over multiple high tide cycles could pose a real threat for those areas. Looks like good drinking conditions for west coasters at this point..

Unless of course it crosses the state at a lower latitude and then heads north and northeast in the Gulf as some models show.

even then what's the most we could get over here? Probably not much. It should be interesting weather but i can't imagine it getting bad over this way for those of us on land. A gale over the marine environment with some passing squalls and showers. WPC qpf limits the good stuff to the east coast and that seems like a reasonable solution.

By “over here” if you mean SW. FL coast, plenty of us still have tarps but no roofs. Doesn’t bode well for lots of rain. Lots of debris still stacked up around yards…doesn’t bode well for any significant wind…

And they’re saying it will be a large system so we could feel some of both of those effects.

If you are in the panhandle, that’s a different kettle of fish.

[wxman57]

This will almost certainly start out as a large subtropical storm rather than a TD/TS. As it nears Florida, the big question is whether it can start developing a core and transition to tropical. My forecast has it staying subtropical, with the area of max winds out to 170 miles NE of the center and a large are of sub-25 mph wind associated with the center at landfall. May not be much on the west coast of FL or across the Panhandle as it tracks north of Tampa on Thursday. By Friday, it's racing up the east coast at 40 mph while becoming fully ET. Models do not indicate a lot of rain along the coast, and any TS winds will likely be confined to coastal counties (as a subtropical storm). Back to my advisory. Started working on it at 6:30am CST.

[cycloneye]

Important key messages.

[robbielyn]

Here on the West coast Friday Denis Phillips on the Tampa ABC affiliate was saying he is not worried about this at all.
Not judging him but not too smart to go out on a limb and give a false sense of security to viewers even though thats what they really want to hear.

I know i saw that and turned off part way through. I liked listening to him during Ian but didn’t like his complete dismissiveness of the GFS for 98L.

He's playing the odds and dumping needed water on the social media panic squad, there's plenty of time to change course if that's appropriate. Backdoor storms typically aren't a big deal here...they tend to lack precip and wind is of an offshore component. The threat is to the east coast. a substantial beach eater with nasty conditions over multiple high tide cycles could pose a real threat for those areas. Looks like good drinking conditions for west coasters at this point..

Yeah but i felt he was being too too dogmatic about it. Present both sides even if u give 80/20% or something but he gave 100/0% I appreciate how Craig Setzer and Brian Shields present the data. Craig says slowly prepare, gas up just in case. He’s properly prepping people to think ok he doesn’t seem too concerned just yet but he’s saying just in case gfs is right slowly prepare. That is professionalism at its finest.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1589327766734147586

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/brianwftv/status/1589317423928578048

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the Hurricane Hunters will take off around 2am central time 0800Z.