https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573194455896694784
ATL: IAN - Models
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Keldeo1997
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
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hurricaneCW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Teban54 wrote:Meanwhile, Euro wants a Long Island Express.
https://i.postimg.cc/sDfWTjZK/ec-fast-mslpa-atl-9.png
More like Donna. In fact it's almost identical from SW FL onward.
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Jelmergraaff
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Three models nearing Cat. 5 intensity in 5 - 6 days time...
Uncertainty is big however, enough models as well which don't even show a MH.
Uncertainty is big however, enough models as well which don't even show a MH.
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20-year old meteorologist from The Netherlands. Interested in all fields of meteorology, including tropical systems like hurricanes.
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otowntiger
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SFLcane
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Jelmergraaff
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
GFS (06z) slightly more to the south/west at +102h.
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Keldeo1997
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Euro is going Wilma on this run, eh?
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: ATL: NINE - Models
06Z GFS from the 20th seems to be what it reverted back to atleast until a C. FL landfall..interesting 
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
Re: ATL: NINE - Models
06z GFS develops an UL anticyclone over TD9 in just 24-30 hours. If this verifies, shear will drop quicker than the NHC forecast calls for, and we could see a more organized system ready to take advantage of its nearly perfect environment starting early Sunday.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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RevanTheJedi96
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
How much does strength play a factor into where Nine ends up? Is this a case where the stronger it'll be, the more likely the GFS model is correct over the Euro?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Question: If the trough is forecast to be so strong and dive that far south, why is this hanging around offshore St. Augustine 60 hours later?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
N2FSU wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/66542f1ecec7a6d685ffd2939f6fa07d.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/c0636a6ea4ae9d18729ffd1cbed84a93.jpg
Question: If the trough is forecast to be so strong and dive that far south, why is this hanging around offshore St. Augustine 60 hours later?
it looks like as the trough moves out, a ridge builds over top of Florida to slow it back down
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
N2FSU wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/66542f1ecec7a6d685ffd2939f6fa07d.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220923/c0636a6ea4ae9d18729ffd1cbed84a93.jpg
Question: If the trough is forecast to be so strong and dive that far south, why is this hanging around offshore St. Augustine 60 hours later?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It won't be. Look for a progressive system. Up, In, and Out.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
GFS is initialized almost a half degree too far north according to recon fix.
Five day forecast has this in the eastern gulf though so its getting serious..
Five day forecast has this in the eastern gulf though so its getting serious..
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
06Z Guidance seems to be mostly around Ft. Meyers, Euro & UKMET could be the outlier here
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Latest runs
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M a r k
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Nimbus wrote:GFS is initialized almost a half degree too far north according to recon fix.
Five day forecast has this in the eastern gulf though so its getting serious..
If it's further south than expected, we could have a stronger system that is less affected by the trough and is further west.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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