ATL: IAN - Models

[BobHarlem]

6z gfs spends a whole day over Florida, gets out into the Atlantic then Loops back and hits Florida again (much weaker) and THEN gets into the Gulf again. Inverse happy hour.

[NDG]

Anybody has the 06z HWRF, don't see it on tropical tidbits and weathernerds is exceeding load capacity and not showing it at this time.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1573266509232840705

[Iceresistance]

Anybody has the 06z HWRF, don't see it on tropical tidbits and weathernerds is exceeding load capacity and not showing it at this time.

I got it on TT, brushes the western tip of Cuba at +90-93 hours, weakens a little bit, but only to reintensify even stronger.

[kevin]

Anybody has the 06z HWRF, don't see it on tropical tidbits and weathernerds is exceeding load capacity and not showing it at this time.

Low-end cat 3 before landfall on the westernmost point of Cuba (958 mb, 97 kt). Landfall causes slight weakening to 89 kt.



And it's currently at +102 hrs, 947 mb & 105 kt.

[fllawyer]

Seems the approach and distance from Jamaica may give some early hints where the storm may ultimately go.

[tolakram]

Anybody has the 06z HWRF, don't see it on tropical tidbits and weathernerds is exceeding load capacity and not showing it at this time.

I got it on TT, brushes the western tip of Cuba at +90-93 hours, weakens a little bit, but only to reintensify even stronger.

It's here, just slow to load. Not finished yet, moving west of Cuba.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=09L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2022092306&fh=102

[skyline385]

06Z HWRF

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS ensembles have a big cluster west of the west coast of Florida that hang back:

[NDG]

I am still not used to seeing the GFS and hurricane models based off of it being to the left of the Euro. Is usually the other way around.
Hope the 06z GFS doesn't come to fruition, it will be catastrophic for central & SW FL.

[tolakram]

Really going to depend on where the center ends up consolidating IMO. If it ends up further south you can thank Fiona for maybe taking a storm that would have stayed east of Florida and changing the outcome.

last frame of HWRF

[skyline385]

Euro 06Z is west of previous run

[tolakram]

I am still not used to seeing the GFS and hurricane models based off of it being to the left of the Euro. Is usually the other way around.
Hope the 06z GFS doesn't come to fruition, it will be catastrophic for central & SW FL.

I trust the GFS more when a storm is forming under shear. Not really confident but the GFS tends to sniff out center relocations a lot better than the Euro, which generally keeps a broad low like it's doing now. Really don't know, but I think that's why the GFS is further west.

[Jelmergraaff]

Both HMON (126kt/934mb) and HWRF (118kt/943mb) show TD Nine getting to category 4 strength at +126 hours. Even if it crosses over Western-Cuba, not much of a significant disruption it seems like.

[NDG]

I am still not used to seeing the GFS and hurricane models based off of it being to the left of the Euro. Is usually the other way around.
Hope the 06z GFS doesn't come to fruition, it will be catastrophic for central & SW FL.

I trust the GFS more when a storm is forming under shear. Not really confident but the GFS tends to sniff out center relocations a lot better than the Euro, which generally keeps a broad low like it's doing know. Really don't know, but I think that's why the GFS is further west.

It could also be that the GFS shows ridging across central FL into the central GOM slightly stronger longer thus a more westward track than the Euro which shows the trough a little further south. Such a disagreement in such short range.

[tolakram]

EC-FAST 72 hours

[pgoss11]

EC-FAST 72 hours
https://i.imgur.com/eEdM53N.png

Is that west of 00z?

[AJC3]

EC-FAST 72 hours
https://i.imgur.com/eEdM53N.png

Is that west of 00z?

SW

[NDG]

06z Euro a slight shift to the west through 90 hrs and slightly weaker than its previous 0z run.

[SFLcane]

06z Euro a slight shift to the west through 90 hrs and slightly weaker than its previous 0z run.

https://i.imgur.com/U3Yko6f.gif

Hmm don’t think it will be that weak and that run would probably still hit SFL.