ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

[zzh]

not even close lol
Satellite appearance sometimes can be very misleading

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/J5ZsOoh.jpg
not even close lol
Satellite appearance sometimes can be very misleading

1. it is on the edge. 2. ASCAT will have a hard time resolving such a small circ. happens all the time. 3. the ambiguities are plentiful...

[NDG]

Very good UL divergence, closed circulation looks like it by surface reports and vis satellite, the question is if it has a well defined LLC yet.

[zzh]

1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.

[skyline385]

https://i.imgur.com/J5ZsOoh.jpg
not even close lol
Satellite appearance sometimes can be very misleading

Plenty of 30 kts barbs for 1.5 hour old pass


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[Kingarabian]

:uarrow:
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.

Respectfully disagree with the first note here. It can sure and most of the times it will, but not always.

[zzh]

I am not sure that there is anything wrong with the models. This may well be just a wave axis currently, as they had been predicting. Don't be too quick to draw conclusions without any supporting data. ASCAT descending pass clipped Barbados at 13Z. At the rate data is coming in, it could pass the BoC by late this afternoon.

ASCAT shows a wave

[Kingarabian]

I am not sure that there is anything wrong with the models. This may well be just a wave axis currently, as they had been predicting. Don't be too quick to draw conclusions without any supporting data. ASCAT descending pass clipped Barbados at 13Z. At the rate data is coming in, it could pass the BoC by late this afternoon.

ASCAT shows a wave

If it's a wave then it'll go due west into Mexico in the next 24 hours. So we'll find out soon lol.

[Kingarabian]

If the models are right and this is actually a pure wave it'll crossover in to the EPAC within the next 18-24 hours. Wouldn't put money on that.

[NDG]

:uarrow:
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.

There have been plenty of times that ASCAT has missed a small developing closed circulation.
On visible satellite I can clearly see W to E moving low level clouds near the southern coast of the BOC, south of the deep convection.

[SouthDadeFish]

That ASCAT pass does not look physical on the southern side to me. Would love to see the ambiguities. Also, recon just took off after having maintenance issues. The first fix will be after 18Z but hopefully we get some good obs.

[wxman57]

Data indicate it's a wave. Recon had maintenance issue. Switching to backup plane.

[cycloneye]

Recon will clear all soon as is now flying.

[SouthDadeFish]

That ASCAT pass does not look physical on the southern side to me. Would love to see the ambiguities. Also, recon just took off after having maintenance issues. The first fix will be after 18Z but hopefully we get some good obs.

To clarify, I'm not saying it's necessarily closed, but I do not believe the abrupt transition from S/SE flow to E flow on the SW edge of the pass.

[zzh]

:uarrow:
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.

There have been plenty of times that ASCAT has missed a small developing closed circulation.
On visible satellite I can clearly see W to E moving low level clouds near the southern coast of the BOC, south of the deep convection.

Since it has happened a lot in the past, please show some examples.

[Aric Dunn]

That ASCAT pass does not look physical on the southern side to me. Would love to see the ambiguities. Also, recon just took off after having maintenance issues. The first fix will be after 18Z but hopefully we get some good obs.

To clarify, I'm not saying it's necessarily closed, but I do not believe the abrupt transition from S/SE flow to E flow on the SW edge of the pass.

here are the Ambiguities.
probably can throw this pass out. luckily recon is on the way.

[WiscoWx02]

:uarrow:
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.

There have been plenty of times that ASCAT has missed a small developing closed circulation.
On visible satellite I can clearly see W to E moving low level clouds near the southern coast of the BOC, south of the deep convection.

Since it has happened a lot in the past, please show some examples.

I seriously seriously seriously doubt recon will find anything close to a surface circulation…doubt this develops simply because it will follow the same fate as nearly every other system this season and run our of time over water to reach full potential even if that potential is relatively limited.

[Teban54]

There have been plenty of times that ASCAT has missed a small developing closed circulation.
On visible satellite I can clearly see W to E moving low level clouds near the southern coast of the BOC, south of the deep convection.

Since it has happened a lot in the past, please show some examples.

I seriously seriously seriously doubt recon will find anything close to a surface circulation…doubt this develops simply because it will follow the same fate as nearly every other system this season and run our of time over water to reach full potential even if that potential is relatively limited.

What happened the past systems do not dictate the fate of present and future systems.

[NDG]

:uarrow:
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.

There have been plenty of times that ASCAT has missed a small developing closed circulation.
On visible satellite I can clearly see W to E moving low level clouds near the southern coast of the BOC, south of the deep convection.

Since it has happened a lot in the past, please show some examples.

It happed at least a couple of times during the past 2-3 years, can't remember exactly which systems they were. Here is a good read about ASCAT missing closed circulations at times.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/brennan-et-al-wf09.pdf

[CyclonicFury]

:uarrow:
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.

There have been plenty of times that ASCAT has missed a small developing closed circulation.
On visible satellite I can clearly see W to E moving low level clouds near the southern coast of the BOC, south of the deep convection.

Since it has happened a lot in the past, please show some examples.

Nana in 2020 comes to mind.