WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

JTWC not impressed.


12W HINNAMNOR 220830 0600 26.7N 135.4E WPAC 125 932

[doomhaMwx]

CMA

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 300600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY HINNAMNOR 2211 (2211) INITIAL TIME 300600 UTC
00HR 26.8N 135.5E 920HPA 60M/S
30KTS WINDS 230KM NORTHEAST
250KM SOUTHEAST
220KM SOUTHWEST
180KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
80KM SOUTHEAST
70KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 28KM/H
P+12HR 26.2N 132.2E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 25.5N 129.7E 910HPA 65M/S
P+36HR 24.3N 127.4E 905HPA 68M/S
P+48HR 22.9N 126.8E 905HPA 68M/S
P+60HR 22.5N 126.5E 910HPA 65M/S
P+72HR 22.7N 126.3E 910HPA 65M/S
P+96HR 24.8N 125.8E 910HPA 65M/S
P+120HR 27.4N 125.7E 910HPA 65M/S=
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

CMA

https://i.imgur.com/e1qrDNY.png

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 300600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY HINNAMNOR 2211 (2211) INITIAL TIME 300600 UTC
00HR 26.8N 135.5E 920HPA 60M/S
30KTS WINDS 230KM NORTHEAST
250KM SOUTHEAST
220KM SOUTHWEST
180KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
80KM SOUTHEAST
70KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 28KM/H
P+12HR 26.2N 132.2E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 25.5N 129.7E 910HPA 65M/S
P+36HR 24.3N 127.4E 905HPA 68M/S
P+48HR 22.9N 126.8E 905HPA 68M/S
P+60HR 22.5N 126.5E 910HPA 65M/S
P+72HR 22.7N 126.3E 910HPA 65M/S
P+96HR 24.8N 125.8E 910HPA 65M/S
P+120HR 27.4N 125.7E 910HPA 65M/S=
NNNN

CMA's estimate looks more reasonable

[Nancy Smar]

Definitely JTWC's estimate is too unreasonable and stupid. If I were them, I would have it 150kts / 910mb.

[weeniepatrol]

Wow!

[MHC Tracking]

Definitely JTWC's estimate is too unreasonable and stupid. If I were them, I would have it 150kts / 910mb.

Maybe not 150, but i feel like 145 kt is justifiable at this stage. impressive DT7.0 with an eye around 21C justifying an addition of 5 kt. Could in reality be as high as 150-155 but no objective data supports that assessment.

[Meteophile]

This beautiful structure and eyewall reminds me some storms with warmer cloudtops but winds above155kts (dorian and Irma). It's probably Between 905-920 mb. The jtwc intensity estimation seems unlikely.

[aspen]

JTWC not impressed.


12W HINNAMNOR 220830 0600 26.7N 135.4E WPAC 125 932

Sometimes I just don’t get the JTWC. How is a system with a full W ring and a >15C eye not a Super Typhoon?

[rileydoxsee98]

Absolute Buffon whoever made these JTWC estimates. They put Rai who has a ragged CDO and rough edges and not even a positive eye temp at 150kt but they go 125kt with this. This could go down as a big robbery if amarl or whoever is making these Dvorak fixes don’t get their heads out of their asses. Easily 145kt. At the very damn least they can give 140kt, it’s had a round W CDO for over 12 hours with a 20C eye. If that’s not a Cat 5 then idk what it

[Subtrop]

TPPN13 PGTW 301200

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (HINNAMNOR)

B. 30/1120Z

C. 26.67N

D. 134.64E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. MET
YIELDS A 6.5. PT YIELDS A 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


AMARAL

[rileydoxsee98]

Absolute Buffon whoever made these JTWC estimates. They put Rai who has a ragged CDO and rough edges and not even a positive eye temp at 150kt but they go 125kt with this. This could go down as a big robbery if amarl or whoever is making these fixes don’t get it together. Easily 145kt. At the very damn least they can give 140kt, it’s had a round W CDO for over 12 hours with a 20C eye. If that’s not a Cat 5 then idk what it

[mrbagyo]

JMA just upgraded Hinnanmor to violent typhoon status

T2211(Hinnamnor)
Issued at 2022/08/30 12:50 UTC
Analysis at 08/30 12 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N26°35′ (26.6°)
E133°40′ (133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 95 km (50 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE220 km (120 NM)
SW165 km (90 NM)

[cycloneye]

12W HINNAMNOR 220830 1200 26.5N 133.6E WPAC 130 926

[Hurricane2022]

12W HINNAMNOR 220830 1200 26.5N 133.6E WPAC 130 926

[aspen]

12W HINNAMNOR 220830 1200 26.5N 133.6E WPAC 130 926

Fixes it at T7.0, goes below that for 12z.

The only way anything is gonna be called a Cat 5 in the WPac this year is if it has a full CDG ring and a >20C eye, and the JTWC might just call it 150 kt if they’re being generous.

[Ed_2001]

imho jtwc haven’t been doing much justice on Hinnamnor’s intensity this entire time. After all, it was still classified as invest 90w when a nascent eye was already in development…

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN13 PGTW 301200

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (HINNAMNOR)

B. 30/1120Z

C. 26.67N

D. 134.64E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. MET
YIELDS A 6.5. PT YIELDS A 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


AMARAL

This fix is technically incorrect too because it was embedded B at 12z. Broken clock moment.

[Yellow Evan]

SAB at T6.5 and ADT-SATCON are at 125-130. Technically you would have had to break constraints to get 7.0 at 6z and the 12z is short. Only NHC forecasters here that would go 140 is probably Blake and Latto.

[mrbagyo]

Hinnanmor


Dorian

[Iceresistance]

It is literally almost a perfect circle.


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Himawari_1km_ir_202208301405_23.75_28.75_-229.75_-222.50_ir1_ltnggw_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png