ATL: IAN - Models

[Iceresistance]

GFS (18z) gets it all the way to the western edge of Cuba, but the intensification is a lot less in the Carribian compared to the 12z (run).

https://imgur.com/IDCPRR8

But the rate of intensification is much higher in the Caribbean compared to 12z.

[Jelmergraaff]

GFS (18z) gets it all the way to the western edge of Cuba, but the intensification is a lot less in the Carribian compared to the 12z (run).

https://imgur.com/IDCPRR8

But the rate of intensification is much higher in the Caribbean compared to 12z.

True, noted it as well. Blows up into a massive storm in no-time.

Again a full hit for the US Gulf Coast (for what it's worth).

[skyline385]

Look at this chonker's wind field

[Iceresistance]

Happy hour showing itself, strongest run since yesterday and even stronger than the noon (12z) runs.

ETA: now under 930 mb. This thing is a beast!

[Jelmergraaff]

Look at this chonker's wind field

https://i.imgur.com/eiAbvMv.png

Jeez... Wondering whether it will even strengthen further until landfall. Anyway, (luckily) still very far out.

[Kazmit]

[wxman57]

Note that the Cat 5 - happy GFS is also indicating a lot of westerly shear across the Gulf late next week. That could be a factor in keeping it in check, somewhat. That said, I'll be initiating 7-day track forecasts tomorrow morning. Day 7 point north of the western tip of Cuba, heading for somewhere in Florida. I have it 90 kts at day 7, reserving the right to modify depending on additional data in a few days. I don't think it will likely impact from Mobile westward due to the west winds aloft across the Gulf.

[toad strangler]

216 hours with a late opening of the ridge to the E I wonder if this "bends" (pun intended) back towards the Big Bend again?

[Hurricane Mike]

This 18Z GFS run is terrifying.

[jlauderdal]

Note that the Cat 5 - happy GFS is also indicating a lot of westerly shear across the Gulf late next week. That could be a factor in keeping it in check, somewhat. That said, I'll be initiating 7-day track forecasts tomorrow morning. Day 7 point north of the western tip of Cuba, heading for somewhere in Florida. I have it 90 kts at day 7, reserving the right to modify depending on additional data in a few days. I don't think it will likely impact from Mobile westward due to the west winds aloft across the Gulf.

Good work 57, seems straight forward, a few days to work out the details but the "track" seems clear

[skyline385]

[Nimbus]

216 hours with a late opening of the ridge to the E I wonder if this "bends" (pun intended) back towards the Big Bend again?

216 hours?, it will no doubt track over ocean pond Florida as a 915 mb hurricane next run..

[toad strangler]

Note that the Cat 5 - happy GFS is also indicating a lot of westerly shear across the Gulf late next week. That could be a factor in keeping it in check, somewhat. That said, I'll be initiating 7-day track forecasts tomorrow morning. Day 7 point north of the western tip of Cuba, heading for somewhere in Florida. I have it 90 kts at day 7, reserving the right to modify depending on additional data in a few days. I don't think it will likely impact from Mobile westward due to the west winds aloft across the Gulf.

Good work 57, seems straight forward, a few days to work out the details but the "track" seems clear

What track is clear?

[Ivanhater]

18Z into Western Florida panhandle around Destin

[jlauderdal]

Note that the Cat 5 - happy GFS is also indicating a lot of westerly shear across the Gulf late next week. That could be a factor in keeping it in check, somewhat. That said, I'll be initiating 7-day track forecasts tomorrow morning. Day 7 point north of the western tip of Cuba, heading for somewhere in Florida. I have it 90 kts at day 7, reserving the right to modify depending on additional data in a few days. I don't think it will likely impact from Mobile westward due to the west winds aloft across the Gulf.

Good work 57, seems straight forward, a few days to work out the details but the "track" seems clear

What track is clear?

Eastern to north central gulf

[Iceresistance]

The hurricane almost collapsed when it reached the Florida Panhandle, which is kinda weird for a location to become post-tropical like.

[shah83]

I really doubt that there will be no bending back towards east that this run showed. Wonder if this isn't essentially as far west as feasibly possible.

[toad strangler]

I really doubt that there will be no bending back towards east that this run showed. Wonder if this isn't essentially as far west as feasibly possible.

At nearly 10 days all we can do is look to the ensembles for clues. Just too far out.

[SFLcane]

Note that the Cat 5 - happy GFS is also indicating a lot of westerly shear across the Gulf late next week. That could be a factor in keeping it in check, somewhat. That said, I'll be initiating 7-day track forecasts tomorrow morning. Day 7 point north of the western tip of Cuba, heading for somewhere in Florida. I have it 90 kts at day 7, reserving the right to modify depending on additional data in a few days. I don't think it will likely impact from Mobile westward due to the west winds aloft across the Gulf.

What’s your thinking regarding South Florida? Anyway this comes in south of Tampa?

[Category5Kaiju]

The path Hermine took in the last GFS run seems a lot like Ivan; not sure how likely that kind of track is in late September though