ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#121 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:26 pm

Jelmergraaff wrote:GFS (18z) gets it all the way to the western edge of Cuba, but the intensification is a lot less in the Carribian compared to the 12z (run).

https://imgur.com/IDCPRR8


But the rate of intensification is much higher in the Caribbean compared to 12z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#122 Postby Jelmergraaff » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:27 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Jelmergraaff wrote:GFS (18z) gets it all the way to the western edge of Cuba, but the intensification is a lot less in the Carribian compared to the 12z (run).

https://imgur.com/IDCPRR8


But the rate of intensification is much higher in the Caribbean compared to 12z.


True, noted it as well. Blows up into a massive storm in no-time.

Again a full hit for the US Gulf Coast (for what it's worth).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#123 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:30 pm

Look at this chonker's wind field :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#124 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:31 pm

Happy hour showing itself, strongest run since yesterday and even stronger than the noon (12z) runs. :eek:

ETA: now under 930 mb. This thing is a beast!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#125 Postby Jelmergraaff » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:32 pm

skyline385 wrote:Look at this chonker's wind field :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/eiAbvMv.png


Jeez... Wondering whether it will even strengthen further until landfall. Anyway, (luckily) still very far out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#126 Postby Kazmit » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:34 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#127 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:34 pm

Note that the Cat 5 - happy GFS is also indicating a lot of westerly shear across the Gulf late next week. That could be a factor in keeping it in check, somewhat. That said, I'll be initiating 7-day track forecasts tomorrow morning. Day 7 point north of the western tip of Cuba, heading for somewhere in Florida. I have it 90 kts at day 7, reserving the right to modify depending on additional data in a few days. I don't think it will likely impact from Mobile westward due to the west winds aloft across the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#128 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:35 pm

216 hours with a late opening of the ridge to the E I wonder if this "bends" (pun intended) back towards the Big Bend again?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#129 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:38 pm

This 18Z GFS run is terrifying.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#130 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:Note that the Cat 5 - happy GFS is also indicating a lot of westerly shear across the Gulf late next week. That could be a factor in keeping it in check, somewhat. That said, I'll be initiating 7-day track forecasts tomorrow morning. Day 7 point north of the western tip of Cuba, heading for somewhere in Florida. I have it 90 kts at day 7, reserving the right to modify depending on additional data in a few days. I don't think it will likely impact from Mobile westward due to the west winds aloft across the Gulf.
Good work 57, seems straight forward, a few days to work out the details but the "track" seems clear
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#131 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:39 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#132 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:39 pm

toad strangler wrote:216 hours with a late opening of the ridge to the E I wonder if this "bends" (pun intended) back towards the Big Bend again?


216 hours?, it will no doubt track over ocean pond Florida as a 915 mb hurricane next run..
Last edited by Nimbus on Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#133 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:40 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Note that the Cat 5 - happy GFS is also indicating a lot of westerly shear across the Gulf late next week. That could be a factor in keeping it in check, somewhat. That said, I'll be initiating 7-day track forecasts tomorrow morning. Day 7 point north of the western tip of Cuba, heading for somewhere in Florida. I have it 90 kts at day 7, reserving the right to modify depending on additional data in a few days. I don't think it will likely impact from Mobile westward due to the west winds aloft across the Gulf.
Good work 57, seems straight forward, a few days to work out the details but the "track" seems clear


What track is clear?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#134 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:41 pm

18Z into Western Florida panhandle around Destin
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#135 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:41 pm

toad strangler wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Note that the Cat 5 - happy GFS is also indicating a lot of westerly shear across the Gulf late next week. That could be a factor in keeping it in check, somewhat. That said, I'll be initiating 7-day track forecasts tomorrow morning. Day 7 point north of the western tip of Cuba, heading for somewhere in Florida. I have it 90 kts at day 7, reserving the right to modify depending on additional data in a few days. I don't think it will likely impact from Mobile westward due to the west winds aloft across the Gulf.
Good work 57, seems straight forward, a few days to work out the details but the "track" seems clear


What track is clear?
Eastern to north central gulf
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#136 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:42 pm

The hurricane almost collapsed when it reached the Florida Panhandle, which is kinda weird for a location to become post-tropical like.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#137 Postby shah83 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:45 pm

I really doubt that there will be no bending back towards east that this run showed. Wonder if this isn't essentially as far west as feasibly possible.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#138 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:48 pm

shah83 wrote:I really doubt that there will be no bending back towards east that this run showed. Wonder if this isn't essentially as far west as feasibly possible.


At nearly 10 days all we can do is look to the ensembles for clues. Just too far out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#139 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:Note that the Cat 5 - happy GFS is also indicating a lot of westerly shear across the Gulf late next week. That could be a factor in keeping it in check, somewhat. That said, I'll be initiating 7-day track forecasts tomorrow morning. Day 7 point north of the western tip of Cuba, heading for somewhere in Florida. I have it 90 kts at day 7, reserving the right to modify depending on additional data in a few days. I don't think it will likely impact from Mobile westward due to the west winds aloft across the Gulf.


What’s your thinking regarding South Florida? Anyway this comes in south of Tampa?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#140 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:55 pm

The path Hermine took in the last GFS run seems a lot like Ivan; not sure how likely that kind of track is in late September though
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