ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bob rulz]

This is going to be one massive hurricane once it gets through an EWRC

[Hurricaneman]

This doesn’t seem to be intensifying as quickly as some thought it would and my thought on that is Hispaniola is limiting the inflow but that problem should be gone by tomorrow, hope this avoids Bermuda and hope Atlantic Canada doesn’t get a nasty surprise

[ElectricStorm]

I highly doubt it's that strong just yet but it'll probably get there tomorrow

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 SEP 2022 Time : 042020 UTC
Lat : 20:46:48 N Lon : 70:32:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 944mb / 115kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 6 km

Center Temp : -2.2C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C

Also recon hasn't updated in 40min

EDIT: finally updated. Whoa 963.7 extrap

[TheDreamTraveler]

Fiona is absolutely impressive looking right now especially so soon after coming off the Domican Republic

[Hammy]

This doesn’t seem to be intensifying as quickly as some thought it would and my thought on that is Hispaniola is limiting the inflow but that problem should be gone by tomorrow, hope this avoids Bermuda and hope Atlantic Canada doesn’t get a nasty surprise

Global models showed more gradual strengthening--only the hurricane models (as always) showed explosive intensification.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop has 967mb at 0m so pressure continues to fall. Winds look about the same as earlier on that pass but it's probably not too far away from becoming a major, maybe at the 4am advisory

[Hammy]

Some dry air entrainment going on it looks like, mostly coming off of Hispaniola, probably keeping it in check.

[cheezyWXguy]

Some dry air entrainment going on it looks like, mostly coming off of Hispaniola, probably keeping it in check.

https://i.imgur.com/MOz0i5x.png

I bet the large number of prominent bands competing with the core is holding things up a bit too

[ElectricStorm]

Eyewall is starting to approach some of those small islands. Hopefully anyone there is prepared and ready

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 70.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

[MarioProtVI]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 70.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

She finally did what Earl couldn’t do.

[Jelmergraaff]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 70.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

Well, there it is. Wouldn't be surprised if today it already reaches cat. 4 strength.

[skyline385]

Beautiful outflow

[Hurrilurker]

Yikes, Turks & Caicos about to be walloped by a rapidly strengthening storm. If people there didn’t check in for the last couple days they’re in for a nasty surprise.

[Jelmergraaff]

Beautiful outflow

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-prregional-14-06_10Z-20220920_map_-65-1n-10-100.gif

In this case, is it bad in terms of intensification that the eye is (somewhat) being covered by clouds, or is it just an indication that the eye is very small with the convective clouds being large enough to cover it?

[Subtrop]

AL, 07, 2022092006, , BEST, 0, 208N, 707W, 100, 967, HU,

[Hammy]

Beautiful outflow

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-prregional-14-06_10Z-20220920_map_-65-1n-10-100.gif

In this case, is it bad in terms of intensification that the eye is (somewhat) being covered by clouds, or is it just an indication that the eye is very small with the convective clouds being large enough to cover it?

Seems like there's some shear (possibly more high level than mid level) combined with the intense convective bursting, so won't likely have a high amount of impact on strengthening--perhaps a tad slower than it could've been otherwise at most.

[skyline385]

Beautiful outflow

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-prregional-14-06_10Z-20220920_map_-65-1n-10-100.gif

In this case, is it bad in terms of intensification that the eye is (somewhat) being covered by clouds, or is it just an indication that the eye is very small with the convective clouds being large enough to cover it?

Seems like there's some shear (possibly more high level than mid level) combined with the intense convective bursting, so won't likely have a high amount of impact on strengthening--perhaps a tad slower than it could've been otherwise at most.

Definitely feeling the effects of some shear on the NW quadrant

[Teban54]

Looks like shear has lessened:

Edit: Nvm, that didn't last long

[aspen]

I don’t think this is a major anymore. Recon has just arrived and will find out what’s going on, whether it be shear or an EWRC.