ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

New one on me, and I'm iffy on whether it's "a thing", but now I want to see something similar for Louisiana.

Ask and you shall receive, LARanger:

[url]https://i.ibb.co/ryRX7gF/Cajun-boxes.jpg [/url]

2020 Hurricane Season, is that you?

Says "no!" and slams the door.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Ok...bedtime...either I will wake up to a surprise Hurricane or tilt-a-whirl storm that ain't stacked

[3090]

Center is farther south. What this may mean in future forecast track will be interesting.

[Hurricaneman]

Center is farther south. What this may mean in future forecast track will be interesting.

It’s not farther south, it’s on the west side of the convective burst

What you’re probably following is an eddy

[3090]

Center is farther south. What this may mean in future forecast track will be interesting.

It’s not farther south, on the west side of the convective burst

OK we’ll see.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The last few frame you really can tell the center of circulation is tightening up. Looks like it's consolidating.

[Teban54]

Quoted from the recon thread:

I don't know why Recon went there? That wasn't the advisory center and likely is a mesovortex.

[chaser1]

Quoted from the recon thread:

I don't know why Recon went there? That wasn't the advisory center and likely is a mesovortex.

Guessing someone lost a pen; Followed by aimless meandering to find it

[3090]

Quoted from the recon thread:

I don't know why Recon went there? That wasn't the advisory center and likely is a mesovortex.

Guessing someone lost a pen; Followed by aimless meandering to find it

Center is around 13.08N

[chaser1]

G'nite all! Someone wake me when there's an eye. Otherwise, I'm sleeping in

[CrazyC83]

I'd take a look around 14.9N 78.4W, at least that looks visibly to be a center. But will Recon find anything?

[MississippiWx]

Recon shows this thing still has a long way to go. Still a loose circulation that is farther south and west than satellite would let you believe. Odd.

[blp]

Let's see what recon finds when it comes toward the northern quad. I think anything south is old center.

[MarioProtVI]

LLC is still elongated and preventing this from taking off. Until it consolidates it’s not gonna intensify much.

[Craters]

Recon shows this thing still has a long way to go. Still a loose circulation that is farther south and west than satellite would let you believe. Odd.

It sure is going to be interesting to see how long it'll be before the models have a solid center so they can well and truly initialize...

[MarioProtVI]

Let's see what recon finds when it comes toward the northern quad. I think anything south is old center.

I believe it’s elongated NW-SE, with the NW lobe under the MLC but the SE end has so far refused to consolidate back into the NW portion.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Hammy]

Increasingly feels like Isaac in 2012 which was forecast to 110 on the first advisory and the models kept blowing up but never managed to get itself organized. Recon barely even supports storm intensity, let alone the current 45kt.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yeah, internally this storm is a complete mess. GFS initializes this at 997 mb; it's barely a tropical cyclone per recon.

[ElectricStorm]

I haven't really followed this as much today, but I'll say I'm surprised at what recon is finding. Would have thought this would have been much more organized by now but it clearly has a long way to go. I would think the NHC will have to lower the forecast intensity at least for the near term.

That being said, there's still going to be a lot of time for this to get going before it hits the shear in the gulf. I still think this will peak around 115kts or so, but I'm hesitant to go with anything higher than that, as it's still a long ways off from having any chance to intensify quickly