ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

[WiscoWx02]

Since it has happened a lot in the past, please show some examples.

I seriously seriously seriously doubt recon will find anything close to a surface circulation…doubt this develops simply because it will follow the same fate as nearly every other system this season and run our of time over water to reach full potential even if that potential is relatively limited.

What happened the past systems do not dictate the fate of present and future systems.

I’m not saying it won’t develop because of what has happened, I’m saying it likely won’t develop because it does not have enough time now. It has a long way to go. Of course now that I say this recon will find something

[cycloneye]

70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche continue to become better
organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
additional development, and a tropical depression could form later
today, tonight, or on Saturday while the system moves northwestward
across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by
Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over
northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate the system. Interests along the northeastern coast of
Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring
locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1560679691819687937

[jaguars_22]

Dre, you still think Mexico?

[drezee]

Dre, you still think Mexico?

I never called a landfall. Center needs to consolidate first

[NDG]

Definitely something is developing down there, may not have a closed defined LLC yet but it has at least a broad closed circulation with falling surface pressures in the 2-3mb range from 24 hrs ago.

[wxman57]

I don't see any movement other than to the SW for low clouds on the west side. That outflow boundary on the west side is confusing things. Landfall 75 miles south of Brownsville tomorrow evening as a 35 kt TS. Some rain for deep south TX, but that's about it. Small system, too.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely something is developing down there, may not have a closed defined LLC yet but it has at least a broad closed circulation with falling surface pressures in the 2-3mb range from 24 hrs ago.

https://i.imgur.com/Sm3rOKJ.gif

Definitely broad turning well away from the center. as pressures fall it will become more noticeable.
At the edge of the canopy, you can see some towers moving south of the west side. likely a curved band trying to get started.

[cainjamin]

Still looks like a sharp wave to me on visible. Definitely looks well on its way to TD status before landfall though. Recon might be able to close off a centre by the time they arrive.

[wxman57]

With a "high" chance of development and possible landfall within 48 hrs, the NHC should be starting advisories by 4pm CDT. They would need to issue TS warnings for NE Mexico likely to just north of BRO, though I don't think BRO will see TS sustained wind. Probably PTC Four. I think Four is next...

[cycloneye]

Plane is descending to operational altitude.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

BoC spinups are always fun ones to watch.

[Nimbus]

Recon already found surface pressure below 1011mb and they aren't even into the convection yet so could be a TS now.
They can get the warnings up by 4 PM.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon already found surface pressure below 1011mb and they aren't even into the convection yet so could be a TS now.
They can get the warnings up by 4 PM.

Quite possibly a TS. small tight core can often be stronger than they appear from sat.

[wxman57]

Given FL winds of 30 kts or less, those 35-40kt 10-second SFMR winds are not likely representative of sustained winds above 30 kts at the surface. Still waiting to see if the plane can find a circulation.

[aspen]

Given FL winds of 30 kts or less, those 35-40kt 10-second SFMR winds are not likely representative of sustained winds above 30 kts at the surface. Still waiting to see if the plane can find a circulation.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think that spike of 35-40kt SFMR was during the plane’s descent. I think I recall similar SFMR spikes right before the plane reaches operational altitude.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Regardless of what recon finds some sort of advisory is probably in order for 21z, be it for a PTC or an actual TC.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=3485&y=6687&z=4&angle=0&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=120&motion=loop&refresh=1&maps%5Bborders%5D=off&maps%5Bcountries%5D=gold&maps%5Bcities%5D=gold&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20220819185617&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Sure looks like it has inflow on the west side

[ScottNAtlanta]

Some of these reading coming from the aircraft are all over the place as to pressure and altitude
like 994mb at 500 ft?

[aspen]

It’s having barometer data transmission issues, it seems. There haven’t been any pressure readings in 15 minutes or so.