ATL: IAN - Models

[somethingfunny]

Note that the Cat 5 - happy GFS is also indicating a lot of westerly shear across the Gulf late next week. That could be a factor in keeping it in check, somewhat. That said, I'll be initiating 7-day track forecasts tomorrow morning. Day 7 point north of the western tip of Cuba, heading for somewhere in Florida. I have it 90 kts at day 7, reserving the right to modify depending on additional data in a few days. I don't think it will likely impact from Mobile westward due to the west winds aloft across the Gulf.

Yesterday you were saying not to put much trust into the GFS beyond 4-5 days out. (Which I agree with). What makes you think the upper air pattern is a lock over a week in advance this time?

[3090]

No center has formed yet. Lots of speculation beyond 5 days.

[Iceresistance]

No center has formed yet. Lots of speculation beyond 5 days.

Really good point here, we don't have a defined LLC yet.

[3090]

Note that the Cat 5 - happy GFS is also indicating a lot of westerly shear across the Gulf late next week. That could be a factor in keeping it in check, somewhat. That said, I'll be initiating 7-day track forecasts tomorrow morning. Day 7 point north of the western tip of Cuba, heading for somewhere in Florida. I have it 90 kts at day 7, reserving the right to modify depending on additional data in a few days. I don't think it will likely impact from Mobile westward due to the west winds aloft across the Gulf.

Yesterday you were saying not to put much trust into the GFS beyond 4-5 days out. What makes you think the upper air pattern is a lock over a week in advance this time?

Purely speculative until a center has formed. Need an official center to set the models off accurately.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS

[chris_fit]

FWIW, 18z GEFS coming in decently to the right of the operational.

[MGC]

The 18Z GFS has some cool air (low to mid 60s) to the west of the hurricane at landfall. Not sure if this it why the GFS weakens the hurricane in the north GOM. Zeta in 2020 also had cool air to its west but still intensified all the way to the Louisiana coast. It went from tropical air to cool continental air shortly after the hurricane passed to my north. I also remember Hilda in 1964 having cool air on the west side of its circulation. Lets hope this hurricane don't happen.......MGC

[Spacecoast]

Look at this chonker's wind field

https://i.imgur.com/eiAbvMv.png

GFS hr 216: I calculate TS force winds extending 224 miles (~200nm) from center .

[boca]

FWIW, 18z GEFS coming in decently to the right of the operational.

What does that mean as far as track goes?

[skyline385]

12Z Super Ensemble, decent agreement in path for at least the next 5 days

[SFLcane]

FWIW, 18z GEFS coming in decently to the right of the operational.

[lsuhurricane]

The GFS Ensembles have been consistently right of the operational since this disturbance was on the radar.

Not seeing how that is possible considering the overall trend across all modeling has been weaker from 0-72 hrs and further west.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS Ensembles have been consistently right of the operational since this disturbance was on the radar.

Not seeing how that is possible considering the overall trend across all modeling has been weaker from 0-72 hrs and further west.

Wind shear from the outflow of Fiona will limit this storm until it reaches more favorable conditions in the Central and Western Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

GFS takes right through a front I call that bluff.

[lsuhurricane]

The GFS Ensembles have been consistently right of the operational since this disturbance was on the radar.

Not seeing how that is possible considering the overall trend across all modeling has been weaker from 0-72 hrs and further west.

Wind shear from the outflow of Fiona will limit this storm until it reaches more favorable conditions in the Central and Western Caribbean.

Euro had this sniffed out pretty well all along, while the GFS had gradually reduced strength in the short term to meet reality

[Stellar]

I think the "H" storm this year will actually be this angry blob about to roll of the coast of Africa:



https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-capeverde-14-6-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

...and 98L will actually get the dreaded "I" name in a few days. We shall see.

[ScottNAtlanta]

A hurricane making landfall moving NE just north of Tampa Bay would be worst case. That would inundate a huge and highly populated area with storm surge.

[sma10]

I think the "H" storm this year will actually be this angry blob about to roll of the coast of Africa:

https://i.postimg.cc/13JSm81D/COD-GOES-East-global-capeverde-14-20220920-232020-over-map-bars.gif

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-capeverde-14-6-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

...and 98L will actually get the dreaded "I" name in a few days. We shall see.

Could be, could be. It'll be close if 98L takes its time

[tomatkins]

I think the "H" storm this year will actually be this angry blob about to roll of the coast of Africa:

https://i.postimg.cc/13JSm81D/COD-GOES-East-global-capeverde-14-20220920-232020-over-map-bars.gif

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-capeverde-14-6-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

...and 98L will actually get the dreaded "I" name in a few days. We shall see.

LOL. I was just about to say this.

[aspen]

The GFS Ensembles have been consistently right of the operational since this disturbance was on the radar.

Not seeing how that is possible considering the overall trend across all modeling has been weaker from 0-72 hrs and further west.

Wind shear from the outflow of Fiona will limit this storm until it reaches more favorable conditions in the Central and Western Caribbean.

While it will be a major limitation for the next 5 days, it doesn’t mean we won’t see development before 65W. The GFS, ICON, and HWRF still form a TD in the next 48 hours that remains weak (or slightly intensifies) for a few more days until the harsh UL flow weakens and an anticyclone starts forming. If 98L develops earlier, its ceiling might be a little higher because that means there will be a well-established TC moving into the WCar and more favorable conditions, instead of one building itself up from scratch last 70-75W.