ATL: LISA - Remnants - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

I think Lisa is going for it now. FL winds in the NW quad peaked at 65kt in the most recent pass, and that pinhole eye is starting to show hints on IR

[Hurricane2022]

200
URNT12 KNHC 020452
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152022
A. 02/04:37:40Z
B. 16.97 deg N 085.17 deg W
C. 850 mb 1390 m
D. 997 mb
E. NA
F. CLOSED
G. C12
H. 44 kt
I. 096 deg 12 nm 04:33:00Z
J. 151 deg 52 kt
K. 062 deg 7 nm 04:35:00Z
L. 53 kt
M. 291 deg 9 nm 04:41:00Z
N. 059 deg 65 kt
O. 306 deg 24 nm 04:46:00Z
P. 16 C / 1521 m
Q. 20 C / 1520 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 1.75 nm
U. AF304 1215A LISA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 65 KT 306 / 24 NM 04:46:00Z
;

VDM reported a closed eye, 12nm diameter

[Landy]

Latest center passed bottomed out at 992.8mb extrap. Has deepened at a decent clip.

New sonde supports 992mb.

[ChrisH-UK]

Here is Lisa on Belize radar, no sign yet of an enclosed eye but the center looks to be on the radar.

http://nms.gov.bz/sensors/radar-imagery/

[aspen]

Pressure has remained steady at 992mb since last flight. SFMR might be enough to upgrade this to a hurricane.

[kevin]

Looks like a hurricane to me, 990.8 mb extrapolated and peak FL of 75 kt with 66 kt SFMR.

[GCANE]

VDM didn't report an eye
Eye Drop measured 79% RH at 925mb
It may be struggling due to the PV steamer overhead.

[tolakram]

Visible floater

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Category5Kaiju]

And it's now officially a hurricane!

See, contrary to initial doubts, it did manage to become a hurricane

[cycloneye]

AL, 15, 2022110212, , BEST, 0, 171N, 867W, 70, 988, HU

[GCANE]

Latest VDM, from Miss Piggy, reports a 3mb rise in surface pressure.

[WiscoWx02]

12z best track has Lisa up to 80mph winds now.

[PavelGaborik10]

Looks to be battling something at the moment, certainly not looking as healthy as she was a few hours ago.

[Iceresistance]

Extrapolated pressure down to 988 mb on latest pass, another AF plane is taking off to Lisa. We're having a rare successful consecutive missions because there is usually one that is having problems.

[GCANE]

Latest eye drop has 993mb.
Increase of 1mb from last fix.

[mpic]

Is the storm predicted for Friday in southeast Texas a result of Lisa?

[GCANE]

Big-ass tower firing off just east of Turneffe Islands.
Maybe big enough to push out that PV streamer.
If so, intensification could resume before landfall.

[wxman57]

Is the storm predicted for Friday in southeast Texas a result of Lisa?

The thunderstorms on Friday will be produced by a cold front. Lisa will be dissipating/dissipated in the southern Bay of Campeche. Wind shear and an abundance of dry air in the BoC will prevent any development or movement northward.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1587790624186683395

[Sciencerocks]