EPAC: DARBY - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

Luckily shear should be in the way soon. SSTs by themselves won't be enough to weaken this quickly.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1546611355263782912

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

If this was August would bet on a cat 5.

[cycloneye]

Impressive closeup view of the eye.

[skyline385]

[St0rmTh0r]

This might be a dumb question but why don't the hurricane hunters fly into the storms from above the eye instead of blasting through the eyewall?

[skyline385]

This might be a dumb question but why don't the hurricane hunters fly into the storms from above the eye instead of blasting through the eyewall?

There is no above the eye though, it extends all the way into the atmosphere.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1546614801756958720

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1546622980377022464

[Yellow Evan]

11/2330 UTC 14.8N 125.7W T6.0/6.0 DARBY -- East Pacific

[Category5Kaiju]

Is it just me, or do EPAC storms tend to have higher pressures than their Atlantic counterparts in many cases (especially low to mid-end Cat 4 storms?) I would think for a 140 mph hurricane, the minimum pressure would be expected to be in the 940s or so? For example, Douglas 2020 was 130/954, Genevieve 2020 was 130/950, Felicia 2021 was 145/945, and Linda 2021 was 130/953. Compare that to many Atlantic storms (like Harvey was 130/937, Danielle 2010 was 130/942, Ophelia 2011 was 140/940, Gonzalo 2014 was 145/940, and Sam was at one point 140/943?)

[Emmett_Brown]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1546622980377022464?s=21&t=O_KRhDbGXN4y7Qv_9R4lYQ

Shows that SST's dont have to be extremely warm to support a strong storm... much more important that the background environment (upper level winds, moisture etc) are favorable

[cycloneye]

EP, 05, 2022071200, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1259W, 120, 954, HU

[aspen]

Is it just me, or do EPAC storms tend to have higher pressures than their Atlantic counterparts in many cases (especially low to mid-end Cat 4 storms?) I would think for a 140 mph hurricane, the minimum pressure would be expected to be in the 940s or so? For example, Douglas 2020 was 130/954, Genevieve 2020 was 130/950, Felicia 2021 was 145/945, and Linda 2021 was 130/953. Compare that to many Atlantic storms (like Harvey was 130/937, Danielle 2010 was 130/942, Ophelia 2011 was 140/940, Gonzalo 2014 was 145/940, and Sam was at one point 140/943?)

Background pressures do vary between basins and even regions within a basin (storms like Harvey and Wilma being able to achieve lower pressures than open Atlantic counterparts like Jose and Dorian), but I think the fact that all of the EPac storms you mentioned have only been assessed with satellite estimates is a big reason why their pressures seem high. If recon went into these storms, they might’ve found wind-pressure relations closer to some Atlantic storms.

Also, I’m pretty sure Douglas was stronger than just 115kt/954mb. You don’t get such a warm eye and pronounced stadium effect from a low-end 4.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DARBY EP052022 07/12/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 120 121 120 117 112 99 87 73 59 49 38 30 22 22 22 21 22
V (KT) LAND 120 121 120 117 112 99 87 73 59 49 38 30 22 22 22 21 22
V (KT) LGEM 120 120 115 108 100 86 75 63 51 40 32 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 7 8 6 2 4 4 6 16 23 27 25 27 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 5 5 3 1 0 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 88 54 69 48 38 14 182 229 241 257 275 307 314 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.0 25.9 25.2 25.1 24.9 25.0 24.7 25.4 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 136 130 124 123 116 115 113 114 111 119 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.4 -54.6 -55.1 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 65 65 65 65 62 60 56 51 48 42 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 18 18 15 16 15 13 13 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 4 9 11 4 0 -7 -6 -5 -14 -11 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 36 24 5 17 32 35 26 14 -6 -18 -36 -38 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 1 6 0 0 3 1 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1805 1915 2008 2101 2198 2282 1995 1705 1410 1128 864 562 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.8 17.4 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 125.9 127.3 128.7 130.0 131.3 133.7 136.3 138.9 141.6 144.3 146.9 150.0 153.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 12 14 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -20. -31. -41. -50. -57. -64. -68. -70. -71. -73. -77. -80.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -3. -8. -21. -33. -47. -61. -71. -82. -90. -98. -98. -98. -99. -98.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.8 125.9

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/12/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 596.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.23 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.8% 2.1% 3.0% 1.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.6% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/12/22 00 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1546664837471674369

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenCohenTC/status/1546682245980868610

[Yellow Evan]

No microwave confirmation but IR strongly suggests Darby is suddenly in the middle of an ERC.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/derrickherndon2/status/1546698810503618562