ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

This system will be Danielle. Perhaps within 48 hrs, but probably before the end of August. May just graze the NE Caribbean islands to the north. Too early to tell it it will recurve as it nears the Bahamas. My Labor Day holiday weekend may be in jeopardy if it doesn't recurve. Don't see a Gulf threat out of this.

[NotSparta]

This system will be Danielle. Perhaps within 48 hrs, but probably before the end of August. May just graze the NE Caribbean islands to the north. Too early to tell it it will recurve as it nears the Bahamas. My Labor Day holiday weekend may be in jeopardy if it doesn't recurve. Don't see a Gulf threat out of this.

Could be Earl if 91L takes its time and 92L swoops in and swipes Danielle

[Category5Kaiju]

Keeping my eyes focused on this system. I have a nagging sensation that this is going to be a LONG thread with many concerned folks down the line.

[Iceresistance]

Keeping my eyes focused on this system. I have a nagging sensation that this is going to be a LONG thread with many concerned folks down the line.

We don't know where the system is going in the first place, it's current location is where the evil D formed in 2019 just a few days before today back then.

[cycloneye]

If this is going to be a Tropical Cyclone, it will have to contend first with the sal.

[Blown Away]

Proxi visible

Convection starting to fire near the circulation
https://i.imgur.com/QGRQVPn.gif

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17454&y=7682&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=1&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6&borders=1

The area looks to be moving NW? If 91L passes N of 20N before 60W the likelihood of a Bahamas, SFL, GOM issue is reduced quite a bit. Of course mid Atlantic & Bermuda remain in play.

[SoupBone]

If this is going to be a Tropical Cyclone, it will have to contend first with the sal.

https://i.imgur.com/o07LMAE.jpg

That's a lot of dry air out there for late August. Wow

[NotSparta]

If this is going to be a Tropical Cyclone, it will have to contend first with the sal.

https://i.imgur.com/o07LMAE.jpg

That's a lot of dry air out there for late August. Wow

Pretty normal for that graphic. This is the one we're used to, there's some SAL but nothing crazy for late August

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though there are multiple eddys at least 3 to my count going around a broad center but those eddys are connected to the convection so I believe this is about to go as looking at all the eddys the common center is about 42.5w and 15N

[InfernoFlameCat]

Convection continues to organize. Only question now is when it becomes a tc.

[ElectricStorm]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure over the central
tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph toward the waters east of the
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Iceresistance]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure over the central
tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph toward the waters east of the
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/43BMQVU.png

20/60? Things are starting to escalate fast!

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/g0NJCw2m/56559422.gif [/url]

Might be better at the low levels that we thought?

Its wrapped up much better overnight still pretty dry on the eastern side.
Could be called as a depression or even a TS if recon finds strong enough wind fields.
its about 14 something degrees north so the SW lobe won the dominance battle.

[BobHarlem]

Water vapor is a good clue why this probably won't develop for a few days. No named storms in August would be effectively the story of dry air (not necessarily SAL at all)

[ChrisH-UK]

The rotation is still spread out between the the two centers

[SFLcane]

Water vapor is a good clue why this probably won't develop for a few days

https://i.imgur.com/4WRHzUF.gif

Or at all potentially. That dry air isn’t going anywhere.

[Hurricaneman]

The rotation is still spread out between the the two centers

https://i.imgur.com/n4cnyVB.png

I Don’t see two centers but do see a broad rotation in between the two blobs of convection which is moving towards the southern blob if what I’m seeing is correct

[SouthFLTropics]

You are definitely seeing a good rotation between the two blobs. It’s as clear as day with the sun coming up and the visible images.

[Keldeo1997]

30/70 now