ATL: DANIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1564972721196376071

Time to organize some protests. We cannot let this stand! No August name systems!

No, counter protest for an August system!

Where did this little critter come from anyway? It seemed to pop up out of nowhere.

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1564972721196376071

Time to organize some protests. We cannot let this stand! No August name systems!

No, counter protest for an August system!

Where did this little critter come from anyway? It seemed to pop up out of nowhere.

Same frontal boundary that spawned former 92L that you can see to its west on satellite, the ghostly swirl. Conditions further east was better for 93L.

[Emmett_Brown]

Still looks a bit frontal, but transitioning. I guess it will be a judgement call.

[Iceresistance]

Still looks a bit frontal, but transitioning. I guess it will be a judgement call.

Ocean Prediction Center analysis is showing that this system is detached from any frontal boundary.

[ElectricStorm]

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is showing signs of organization over the
central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles west-southwest of the
westernmost Azores. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression
is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system
drifts generally eastward. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[galaxy401]

What is the highest latitude a Tropical system became a Hurricane? I think this Invest is even more north than Vince.

[Iceresistance]

What is the highest latitude a Tropical system became a Hurricane? I think this Invest is even more north than Vince.

Hurricane Pablo was much further north and east in 2019

[AJC3]

Same frontal boundary that spawned former 92L that you can see to its west on satellite, the ghostly swirl. Conditions further east was better for 93L.

https://i.imgur.com/YP0i7Ff.gif

Ex-92L is actually south of that larger vortex. Check out the post I made about it in the 93L pre-invest thread.

[Nuno]

https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1564972721196376071

Time to organize some protests. We cannot let this stand! No August name systems!

No, counter protest for an August system!

Where did this little critter come from anyway? It seemed to pop up out of nowhere.

Was this what the models saw as opening up a path for 91L to lift up and recurve?

[aspen]

Circulation looks closed to me. This should be at least a TD in the next advisory or two, but since ASCAT missed this (as normal when we really need it), the NHC probably won't pull the trigger until later tomorrow.

[Hammy]

Circulation looks closed to me. This should be at least a TD in the next advisory or two, but since ASCAT missed this (as normal when we really need it), the NHC probably won't pull the trigger until later tomorrow.
https://i.imgur.com/kGnOA4d.jpg

It would be kind of funny if they upgrade tomorrow, we get all the articles and takes about storm-free August and then the TCR shows it formed today

[SoupBone]

So are we going to make it? A little over 3 hours left.

[aspen]

So are we going to make it? A little over 3 hours left.

Unless we get an ASCAT pass like right now, no. Odds are this has been a TC for some time but will have to be revised in post-season.

[SoupBone]

So are we going to make it? A little over 3 hours left.

Unless we get an ASCAT pass like right now, no. Odds are this has been a TC for some time but will have to be revised in post-season.

I'm on team no-name though. So I take it as a win.

[Emmett_Brown]

Maybe they will call it a 30 knot depression, and then upgrade to a TS after 0Z (assuming there is evidence to warrant an upgrade).

[MHC Tracking]

DMIN has caused serious problems for 93L and has prevented designation in August. Though that's only to be expected with how this season has progressed so far
But, it looks likely that we will see 05L, and perhaps Danielle, from this tomorrow, and at the latest, Friday. hurricane potential with this is real, maybe even cat 2 potential if everything goes well for the storm

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Maybe they will call it a 30 knot depression, and then upgrade to a TS after 0Z (assuming there is evidence to warrant an upgrade).

Circulation looks like it would qualify as TS and that way we get one named storm in August.
But there may be other considerations.

[cycloneye]

No August TC.

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 850 miles west-southwest of
the westernmost Azores has changed little in organization since
earlier today. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression
is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system
drifts generally eastward. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[tolakram]

SLIDER proxy visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15390&y=3541&z=5&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6