EPAC: KAY - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

[Astromanía]

Would be interesting if this has a chance to break the record for the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Baja

[Zonacane]

Might be one of the rare storms that makes it into Arizona. Certainly won’t complain about the rain

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located just off the coast of southern
Mexico continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. This activity is beginning to show signs of
organization, and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days, and
interests in those locations should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2022090312, , BEST, 0, 127N, 971W, 25, 1006, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep932022.dat

[cycloneye]

Looks like Baja California will get it but how strong is the biggest question.

[aspen]

Looks like Baja California will get it but how strong is the biggest question.

https://i.imgur.com/YmiFjlr.png

https://i.imgur.com/jqvjiQd.png

I’m doubtful this becomes a major. The HWRF has consistently been showing a very large system with lots of banding and structural upheavals, like Javier if it was able to become a hurricane. This will increase upwelling over already used waters, and likely prevent rapid organization and intensification. Unfortunately, the large size of future Kay could make it quite the rain maker for the Baja.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF still showing a great upper environment.

In general, the models are still shifting west but I’m not seeing too much ridging to the point where we won’t briefly see NNW motion so I’m skeptical of the westward solutions.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

PROBABLE FIX OF SYSTEM OFF SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST NEAR 15.5N 105.5W FOR 05/1800Z.

[cycloneye]

1. South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in
association with an area of low pressure located just off the coast
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days, and
interests in those locations and the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2022090318, , BEST, 0, 132N, 982W, 25, 1006, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep932022.dat

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)

B. 03/1730Z

C. 13.1N

D. 98.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET
AND FT ARE 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BERTALAN

[Sciencerocks]

[shah83]

18z run would probably cause flood deaths and higher veggie prices.

[Yellow Evan]

Classifiable.

[Iceresistance]

18z run would probably cause flood deaths and higher veggie prices.

A landfall in California? How is that even possible!?

[cycloneye]

1. South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located south of the coast of southern Mexico have gradually become
more organized during the afternoon and early evening. Although
recent satellite imagery indicates that the system does not have a
well-defined circulation yet, additional development is likely, and
a tropical depression is expected to form tonight or on Sunday. The
system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward or
northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
through early next week, bringing heavy rain to portions of that
region regardless of development. Interests in those locations and
the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2022090400, , BEST, 0, 137N, 989W, 25, 1006, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep932022.dat