ATL: IAN - Models

[IcyTundra]

Threads the needle between the Yucatan and Cuba.

[Teban54]

I really wanted this to be Gaston, but with a name like Hermine, will get plenty of memes.

There's actually a small chance that 98L develops later than expected, the 0/40 wave steals the name Hermine, and the I curse strikes again.

[Fancy1001]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/QI7VqHW.png

Pretty large storm

[FLpanhandle91]

Ridging is slightly stronger ahead of it. This looks like a western panhandle impact.

[Keldeo1997]

[IcyTundra]

Ridging is slightly stronger ahead of it. This looks like a western panhandle impact.

Looks like it could come in west of the FL panhandle on this run.

[Fancy1001]

I really wanted this to be Gaston, but with a name like Hermine, will get plenty of memes.

There's actually a small chance that 98L develops later than expected, the 0/40 wave steals the name Hermine, and the I curse strikes again.

That storm will visit us to spread the wonder of graphene lol

[skyline385]

Its slowing down in the middle of the Gulf, trapped from the ridge

[Keldeo1997]

Shear is much more favorable this run in the Gulf. Jet is much futher NW this run

[Hurricane Mike]

Another terrifying GFS run.

[skyline385]

Its getting eroded again, look at all the precipitation being pulled out through Florida. Its going to weaken before landfall again.

[skyline385]

Yep, rapidly weakened again prior to landfall.

[cheezyWXguy]

Its getting eroded again, look at all the precipitation being pulled out through Florida. Its going to weaken before landfall again.

https://i.imgur.com/ofToPZD.png

What is the mechanism imparting shear on it as it approaches the northern gulf? I don’t see another trough, it looks like largely zonal flow to me.

[AutoPenalti]

West shift this run.

[IcyTundra]

Lets hope 98L doesn't get too strong because as we can see even with strong shear towards the end of the run 98L is still quite powerful after weakening.

[Hurricane Mike]

Even with the weakening, what a storm surge potential we'd have.

[Hurricaneman]

West shift this run.

It’s actually an east shift from Destin on the 18z to Panama City this run

[AtlanticWind]

West shift this run.

Actually landfall was slightly east this run

[skyline385]

Its getting eroded again, look at all the precipitation being pulled out through Florida. Its going to weaken before landfall again.

https://i.imgur.com/ofToPZD.png

What is the mechanism imparting shear on it as it approaches the northern gulf? I don’t see another trough, it looks like largely zonal flow to me.

Not sure myself but I think the precipitation is being pulled by the front created by this trough digging in

[ElectricStorm]

Although it weakens that wind field would probably be pretty dang large. That would be a lot of water moving in, not to mention some of those areas are still recovering from Michael. Just not a good run all around