ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[d3v123]

Euro 06z big shift W this run and now I cannot get a grip on this storm ha. Curious what wxman’s take is this morning

[Category5Kaiju]

I think three things are certain at this point:

1. Ian has the characteristic beginning looks of typical blockbuster storms

2. This thing is not going to miss Florida to the East and it will be in the Eastern Gulf

3. Ian looks to be a bigger storm than Charley.

[chris_fit]

Euro 06z big shift W this run and now I cannot get a grip on this storm ha. Curious what wxman’s take is this morning

Curious on his thoughts at all. I'll be waiting for him to post! And, glued to the 12Z Euro Run to see if this one was a fluke or something.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Euro 06z big shift W this run and now I cannot get a grip on this storm ha. Curious what wxman’s take is this morning

Curious on his thoughts at all. I'll be waiting for him to post! And, glued to the 12Z Euro Run to see if this one was a fluke or something.

He posted an hour ago...ya gotta get up early for the best forecast

[MJGarrison]

Euro 06z big shift W this run and now I cannot get a grip on this storm ha. Curious what wxman’s take is this morning

Curious on his thoughts at all. I'll be waiting for him to post! And, glued to the 12Z Euro Run to see if this one was a fluke or something.

The GFS has generally shown a west track with a storm in the 950s. The Euro (18Z last night and 06Z this morning) finally shows a storm in the 950s and is a bit west, now west of the GFS.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[skillz305]

Imagine the GFS trends east while the EURO starts trending west would be pretty insane

[ScottNAtlanta]

Haven't seen any obs from mission 15 recon in like 45 mins

[chris_fit]

Imagine the GFS trends east while the EURO starts trending west would be pretty insane

Yes, but also actually expected and 'back to normal' as typically Euro is on the 'left' side and GFS on the 'right'

[La Sirena]

Imagine the GFS trends east while the EURO starts trending west would be pretty insane

Don’t bring that evil on me Ricky Bobby!

Honestly, at this point nothing would surprise me with this storm. I’m heading out to Tybee Thursday. I used to live there but I’m starting to think they may shut down the rentals due to the storm. We’ll see!

[AutoPenalti]

I wonder if any watches or warning will be posted for anyone in the metro dade/broward/palm beach. Any wobbles from here on out will determine a lot for windspeed probabilities.

[Poonwalker]

The critical part of this is going to be the position crossing Cuba. Models seem to keep deviating from that point. If it’s on the left side it takes a more northward motion. The influence of the trough has everything to do with the position it’s at entering the GOM.

[Fancy1001]

The critical part of this is going to be the position crossing Cuba. Models seem to keep deviating from that point. If it’s on the left side it takes a more northward motion. The influence of the trough has everything to do with the position it’s at entering the GOM.

I think it also has to do with the strength, a stronger storm past Cuba seems to result in a westward track, while a weaker storm results in Eastward track

[tolakram]

One critical thing I notice is that timing will be critical for the Tampa Bay area. There may be a brief period on Thursday when Ian's forward speed slows to 4-5 mph. That occurs as Ian is about 30 miles offshore. If Ian moves more quickly, then it may move farther east, with landfall shifting just south of Tampa before the stall or slow-down. That's what the ICON is indicating. Those of you in Tampa want Ian to move more slowly so that it is blocked offshore and not allowed to move inland south of Tampa.

Checking recon, the plane found no hurricane force wind in the NW or SE quadrants.

Here's 57's post about speed being important.

[MarioProtVI]

VHTs seem to be failing to wrap around W side. Coincides with radar presentation looking a bit anemic and open. Won’t see RI unless it closes off / is able to wrap around that side.

[Nimbus]

The critical part of this is going to be the position crossing Cuba. Models seem to keep deviating from that point. If it’s on the left side it takes a more northward motion. The influence of the trough has everything to do with the position it’s at entering the GOM.

I think it also has to do with the strength, a stronger storm past Cuba seems to result in a westward track, while a weaker storm results in Eastward track

And the slower track is going to give Tampa bay insane amounts of rainfall for over 30 hours straight.
Good time to stick any loose shingles down with Locktite PL.

[wxman57]

12Z TVCN is in. No big changes. Passes about 30 miles offshore Clearwater Thursday moving VERY slowly. Landfall just north of Crystal River late Thursday. Lots of uncertainty about where that slowing will occur. Ian's forward speed next 48 hrs will play an important role in where it moves inland south of Tampa and slows down or if it slows down just offshore. For now, I have it passing offshore.

[Elsiecoro]

I posted this on model page too, so forgive me, but..

please if you can, donate to help keep Storm2K going

ive gotten many years of invaluable information from the boards here, and the small amounts I have donated could never repay the priceless information and education I have received here.

There is a handy PayPal link at the top of the page, and I just added a small amount to the kitty myself.

[chris_fit]

12Z TVCN is in. No big changes. Passes about 30 miles offshore Clearwater Thursday moving VERY slowly. Landfall just north of Crystal River late Thursday. Lots of uncertainty about where that slowing will occur. Ian's forward speed next 48 hrs will play an important role in where it moves inland south of Tampa and slows down or if it slows down just offshore. For now, I have it passing offshore.

Thoughts on W Shift on 06Z Euro?

[Blown Away]

Maybe NNW movement now?

[tolakram]