ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[skyline385]

BT at 0z

Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 03, 2022:

Location: 21.5°N 87.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 100 nm

https://i.imgur.com/gBnG5A6.png

jesus this thing has got to get away from the Yucatan i don't know how anyone can expect any kind of strengthening with this wind shear + land interaction. feel like its been parked over the Yucatan for days now.

Well the EURO predicted this long back, we are still on track to remain parked for like 6 hours.

[underthwx]

Do any of you foresee PTC1 attaining hurricane status?....This system looks healthy on Satellite.... I appreciate any info

No. Satellite imagery can be quite deceiving. The low-level center is over the NE Yucatan. That big blow-up of squalls is 150 miles to the east, indicating very strong wind shear is affecting the disturbance. Shear will increase as it moves northeastward, and squalls will be located even farther east of the exposed center. Strongest wind in Florida will occur with these squalls, well before the center nears. Not much weather with the center. It will likely peak as it is heading out to sea east of Florida, but it will be transitioning to an ET storm early next week.

Thankyou sir!....and all of you for keeping all of us informed.... That's why I love S2K.....I respect all of yall for helping me understand, and learn...

[Hurricaneman]

I personally thing structure wise good analogs for this are Barry in 2007 or Colin in 2016

[Spacecoast]

blob of convection waaay east of center...

[GCANE]

Forecast sounding for Miami Saturday morning showing a saturated air column thru the troposphere with strong Hodo.
I suspect this could be the area for likely tornado development.

[MGC]

The 7pm NHC position of 21.5N/87.5W, that LLC is weakening and the MLC @22N/85.8W with convection building I think will become the area to watch.

I think this will be the likely outcome.....MGC

[skyline385]

Forecast sounding for Miami Saturday morning showing a saturated air column thru the troposphere with strong Hodo.
I suspect this could be the area for likely tornado development.

The 12Z HWRF had a saturated column with 87 kts shear in the Everglades. There were some jokes about tornado chasing in the Everglades at night on wxtwitter

[Blown Away]

Because it’s void of convection, on the WV loop I think I see a weak LLC @NE Yucatán coast moving NE towards that convection building in the Yucatán channel.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[GCANE]

Forecast sounding for Miami Saturday morning showing a saturated air column thru the troposphere with strong Hodo.
I suspect this could be the area for likely tornado development.

The 12Z HWRF had a saturated column with 87 kts shear in the Everglades. There were some jokes about tornado chasing in the Everglades at night on wxtwitter

Someone will post a video of a gator coming down on their windshield

[Nuno]

I am concerned about tomorrow being a regular work day with standard traffic and school still in session in SFL. I dont mean to criticize the NHC much but their approach to the "PTC" designation always seems a bit random and inconsistent. You don't need an LLC for a PTC, it was clear as of yesterday evening or this morning that something was going to come towards the peninsula. Like others and wxman have said, by time the center arrives Saturday most of the rain will be gone sheared to the east. Tomorrow is going to be an absolute slog and I really think designating the PTC sooner might have been more effective in transmitting such a public safety concern. I hope everyone is safe out on the roads tomorrow...

[SFLcane]

I am concerned about tomorrow being a regular work day with standard traffic and school still in session in SFL. I dont mean to criticize the NHC much but their approach to the "PTC" designation always seems a bit random and inconsistent. You don't need an LLC for a PTC, it was clear as of yesterday evening or this morning that something was going to come towards the peninsula. Like others and wxman have said, by time the center arrives Saturday most of the rain will be gone sheared to the east. Tomorrow is going to be an absolute slog and I really think designating the PTC sooner might have been more effective in transmitting such a public safety concern. I hope everyone is safe out on the roads tomorrow...

This!

[robbielyn]

I am concerned about tomorrow being a regular work day with standard traffic and school still in session in SFL. I dont mean to criticize the NHC much but their approach to the "PTC" designation always seems a bit random and inconsistent. You don't need an LLC for a PTC, it was clear as of yesterday evening or this morning that something was going to come towards the peninsula. Like others and wxman have said, by time the center arrives Saturday most of the rain will be gone sheared to the east. Tomorrow is going to be an absolute slog and I really think designating the PTC sooner might have been more effective in transmitting such a public safety concern. I hope everyone is safe out on the roads tomorrow...

Hopefully the local weathermen can really get across to their viewers what and when conditions will deteriorate and what to expect. Even TS designations are perceived as nothin to get excited about by most floridians. Usually only threat of hurricanes get peoples attention.

[Category6]

A little surprising how quiet this thread is.

[chaser1]

Never stopped them before

I mean, they upgraded PTC 3 to Claudette last year after it made landfall in Louisiana, and TS Kate existed and had a name while being a pizza slice made of clouds, so they'll probably call this TD 1 soon enough

That all sounds well and good but there are specific criteria that need to be met before they will call a system a TD.
I don't think it is subjective.

Very very true however some of the criteria which you speak of has been woefully exceptionalized for a good number of gales, baroclinic, or just very poorly organized tropical hot messes over the last decade or two. Most of which occur in the GOM or off the US Eastern Seaboard. Miraculously, this seems far less the case out in the tropical Atlantic. I dont honestly believe that tropical upgrades occur out of pure subjectivity but I absolutely do believe that objectivity is largely cast aside where "risk management" (or risk mitigation) factors in.

Even a weak Tropical Depression should by definition, have a fairy defined area of low surface pressure, have 20-35 knot winds near the center... and not limited to elevated oil platforms or distances 50, 100 or greater miles to the east of center. Precip should not be limited to boundry layer interaction well east of center. Diurnal fluctuation is typical with a weak tropical circulation, so I dont cling to any one feature such as a CDO or symmetrical banding as solely prerequisite for being tagged a Depression. However, a TD practically devoid of even shallow precip (let alone actual convection)? For anyone to suggest that weak tropical depressions simply lack most of those criteria, then my reply would essentially be "perfect, lets just start labeling every single mesoscale system as Tropical Depressions" (warm core or not).

[SFLcane]

A little surprising how quiet this thread is.

Nothing to see here but scrambled eggs.

[chaser1]

A little surprising how quiet this thread is.

....because when you get right down to it, just how long can 100 people all gather around and simply just stare at the same "hairball" for LOL? No defined center, very limited expectation for strengthening, hell.... even our crazy uncle CMC won't throw down any run up to Cat 3 model runs for our viewing pleasure. Hey, i get it though- we're all pretty jazzed about the start of a new hurricane season. Let 'em just inexplicably name the darn thing so we may then return to our seats, buckle up, and wait for the captain to illuminate the over-head signs that "it's about to get real folks"

Then we'll get this party started!

[Sciencerocks]

Looks pretty bad! I wouldn't be shocked to see another blow up before making landfalling allowing it to become a tropical storm. I'll say 70/30 for that at some point.

[cane5]

This is a classic example of what could be a killer storm but because it’s not sexy or a Cat 3 let’s just call it minor and business as usual. There are enough variables to keep people home for one day for precautionary reasons. In such a informed society shame on city leaders not to be proactive and aire on the side of caution.

[Craters]

I am concerned about tomorrow being a regular work day with standard traffic and school still in session in SFL. I dont mean to criticize the NHC much but their approach to the "PTC" designation always seems a bit random and inconsistent. You don't need an LLC for a PTC, it was clear as of yesterday evening or this morning that something was going to come towards the peninsula. Like others and wxman have said, by time the center arrives Saturday most of the rain will be gone sheared to the east. Tomorrow is going to be an absolute slog and I really think designating the PTC sooner might have been more effective in transmitting such a public safety concern. I hope everyone is safe out on the roads tomorrow...

Nuno -- That's certainly a valid concern, but my guess is that most people get their weather info from local sources rather than directly from the NHC. If (IF!!!) the local radio and TV weather folks are doing their jobs concscientiously (I know, I know. . .), the fact that PTC 1 is headed toward SFL should be their Number One (Numero Uno, The Big Cheese, The Head Honcho) story, regardless of input from the NHC. In fact, if they'll be behaving anything like some of the [unnamed] local weather people in Houston, PTC 1 is going to be the spawn of Satan, coming so early in the season. I don't know what it's been like in SFL lately, but a tropical system headed that way should be prime hype material. I don't think that people will be unaware of the rain that's coming.

Just my more-or-less geezerish view of the situation.

Mark

[skyline385]

I am concerned about tomorrow being a regular work day with standard traffic and school still in session in SFL. I dont mean to criticize the NHC much but their approach to the "PTC" designation always seems a bit random and inconsistent. You don't need an LLC for a PTC, it was clear as of yesterday evening or this morning that something was going to come towards the peninsula. Like others and wxman have said, by time the center arrives Saturday most of the rain will be gone sheared to the east. Tomorrow is going to be an absolute slog and I really think designating the PTC sooner might have been more effective in transmitting such a public safety concern. I hope everyone is safe out on the roads tomorrow...

Nuno -- That's certainly a valid concern, but my guess is that most people get their weather info from local sources rather than directly from the NHC. If (IF!!!) the local radio and TV weather folks are doing their jobs concscientiously (I know, I know. . .), the fact that PTC 1 is headed toward SFL should be their Number One (Numero Uno, The Big Cheese, The Head Honcho) story, regardless of input from the NHC. In fact, if they'll be behaving anything like some of the [unnamed] local weather people in Houston, PTC 1 is going to be the spawn of Satan, coming so early in the season. I don't know what it's been like in SFL lately, but a tropical system headed that way should be prime hype material. I don't think that people will be unaware of the rain that's coming.

Just my more-or-less geezerish view of the situation.

Mark

There is not much hype here, not even close to something like the spawn of Satan. We were talking about it today in the office, most people were just mildly annoyed if anything because of the ruined weekend from the rainmaker. I have been in SFL for only 4 years but from what I have seen, people here dont care much about TS systems mostly because they are used to much worse.