ATL: IAN - Models

[gatorcane]

Looks to be trying to turn NNE at hour 96. BIG change on the GFS.

[tolakram]

Moving north now, GFS is not giving up on Ian getting pulled but then missing the trough.

https://i.imgur.com/XzwLJKQ.png

Looking at 500mb the trough is a bit slower in pulling out. It's lagging back a bit.

The easiest answer at this point is where it crosses into the Gulf. The Euro and GFS are not that far off. If it gets west of Cuba it goes further north, crosses Cuba further east. Seems pretty straightforward, just wish we knew right now who is going to get the crossing right.

[chris_fit]

Looks to be turn NNE at hour 96. BIG change on the GFS.

Trend...

[tolakram]

[NDG]

This is a good 60 mile shift to the right by the GFS compared to the 06z run, and a good 100-120 miles from the oz run.

[chaser1]

12Z GFS Trending decent ways E of previous runs...

https://i.imgur.com/nMldXY0.gif

A bit more east - yes. We can't lose sight of one other thing here too. Look at that GFS "prior forecast -to current" loop that you attached. Notice how the new 12Z GFS suggests a further north latitude then prior GFS runs? At least for the moment, GFS has sped up the time frame slightly with Ian reaching the latitude of the Western tip of Cuba as well. Whether or not this verifies remains to be seen however this northward and eastward nudging of forecast track bring the GFS closer in line with the EURO (and ICON). Disregard where NAM suggests landfall (and intensity) however do heed that model's broader scale CONUS mid/upper-level forecast and forecast trends.

[tolakram]

trend

[tronbunny]

Moving north now, GFS is not giving up on Ian getting pulled but then missing the trough.

https://i.imgur.com/XzwLJKQ.png

Looking at 500mb the trough is a bit slower in pulling out. It's lagging back a bit.

The easiest answer at this point is where it crosses into the Gulf. The Euro and GFS are not that far off. If it gets west of Cuba it goes further north, crosses Cuba further east. Seems pretty straightforward, just wish we knew right now who is going to get the crossing right.

It looks as if the longer it stays in the gulf, the better it is for all Florida residents. Like I said, it's the 18Z models that will determine my next course of action.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC turning NE a bit more south of the 00Z:

[eastcoastFL]

Moving north now, GFS is not giving up on Ian getting pulled but then missing the trough.

https://i.imgur.com/XzwLJKQ.png

Looking at 500mb the trough is a bit slower in pulling out. It's lagging back a bit.

The easiest answer at this point is where it crosses into the Gulf. The Euro and GFS are not that far off. If it gets west of Cuba it goes further north, crosses Cuba further east. Seems pretty straightforward, just wish we knew right now who is going to get the crossing right.

That’s going to be the million dollar question. Gfs has it going right off that western tip along the channel while the euro is a little bit east of it crossing over more of western Cuba. That little piece of the puzzle might be the game changer.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[NDG]

Not until I see the Euro start trending to the left towards the official track will I say that the NHC track is good in the 3-5 day range.

[eastcoastFL]

12Z CMC turning NE a bit more south of the 00Z:

https://i.postimg.cc/y8qkJV1t/gem-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh0-72.gif

Not a great trend especially after seeing the UKMET

[gatorcane]

CMC through 90 hours approaching the west coast and really slowing:

[eastcoastFL]

ICON 12z looks like it’s around Tampa

[ConvergenceZone]

I know that the flooding can be really bad, but I think we should all be grateful of the amount of shear that's forecasted to be in the northern gulf.... I can't even imagine how horrible this situation would have been if the conditions were great for intensification, rather than weakening. Cat 1 to maybe Cat 2 seems the most likely strength at landfall... .. I'm not really concerned about the wind as much though, except on the coast... I'm concerned about the rain/surge, especially if the EURO wins out and there's more of a stall over Florida......

[toad strangler]

CMC into the armpit of the Big Bend

[chris_fit]

12Z CMC Trend

[chaser1]

12Z CMC turning NE a bit more south of the 00Z:

https://i.postimg.cc/y8qkJV1t/gem-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh0-72.gif

AND..... this morning's 12Z CMC is also further north compared to yesterday's 12Z run as well.

[eastcoastFL]

CMC into the armpit of the Big Bend

What’s also kinda scary is they all seem to go from a NE heading to a N or NNE. So depending on how far it comes into the state it could potentially run right up the center of the state when it turns back to the north.