ATL: EARL - Models

[MHC Tracking]

Solid uptrend on the GEFS

[SconnieCane]

0Z ICON now recurving at the end of its run as well

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh120-180-1.gif

That looks like it is doing an anticyclonic loop

Jeanne 2004 has entered the chat.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro run


Trivia question: How many upper level lows were around Dorian?

[Blown Away]

06z ECMWF... Subtle recent W shifts, and Ukmet shifted W. It happens I know, but sharp NE turn @27N seems extreme for Aug/Early Sept. The 12z BAMD may be a hint?

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/thwWmOj.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/xx32W7z.gif
06z ECMWF... Subtle recent W shifts, and Ukmet shifted W. It happens I know, but sharp NE turn @27N seems extreme for Aug/Early Sept. The 12z BAMD may be a hint?

Not really related but look up at 40N on that run. Something might try to snatch the name Danielle from 91L.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/thwWmOj.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/xx32W7z.gif
06z ECMWF... Subtle recent W shifts, and Ukmet shifted W. It happens I know, but sharp NE turn @27N seems extreme for Aug/Early Sept. The 12z BAMD may be a hint?

More then likely will not get passed 70w before turning north. Bermuda should keep an eye out.

[Steve H.]

Wax your surf boards

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/thwWmOj.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/xx32W7z.gif
06z ECMWF... Subtle recent W shifts, and Ukmet shifted W. It happens I know, but sharp NE turn @27N seems extreme for Aug/Early Sept. The 12z BAMD may be a hint?

The model seems to be consolidating it more toward the middle initializing it more south than before

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like your classic recurving hurricane to me. Euro is likely wrong as ever, far too weak 5+ days out. Bermuda may have to watch out for this one.

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs similar to 6z track wise out to 138 hours, but a good bit slower.

[sma10]

UK 12z still a far outlier to the left, much further SW than all other models, near Turks & Caicos at 144 hrs

[Blown Away]

12z CMC... Decent shift W, moves just above PR and almost to Central Bahamas before making extreme NE turn over Bermuda...

[syfr]

Man, that's some incredible acceleration eastward after the turn!

[Nimbus]

12Z GFS never gets west of -65 and the rest of the models are recurving Bermuda is at longitude -65 west. Looks like it will be a strong storm, if it exited out to sea a little slower it might leave a weakness for a couple September storms to follow.

[tolakram]

12Z EC-FAST



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-fast&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2022083012&fh=132

[Europa non è lontana]

12z GFS takes it mighty close to us in Europe!

https://i.imgur.com/hmbklUS.png

[LarryWx]

UK 12z still a far outlier to the left, much further SW than all other models, near Turks & Caicos at 144 hrs

Yeah, the 12Z UKMET is actually a bit SW of its 0Z position as of hour 96, when it is at 19.3N, 62.4W. This compares to the 0Z UKMET at 108, when it was 20.4N, 61.6W.

Then the 12Z UKMET at hour 108 "ceases tracking" it as a TC:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 48.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2022 0 14.8N 48.3W 1009 25
0000UTC 31.08.2022 12 15.6N 49.4W 1009 24
1200UTC 31.08.2022 24 15.8N 50.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 01.09.2022 36 16.3N 51.8W 1008 25
1200UTC 01.09.2022 48 17.5N 53.9W 1007 27
0000UTC 02.09.2022 60 18.0N 55.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 02.09.2022 72 18.9N 57.9W 1007 31
0000UTC 03.09.2022 84 19.1N 60.5W 1008 31
1200UTC 03.09.2022 96 19.3N 62.4W 1009 29
0000UTC 04.09.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING

Then, it brings it back at hour 138 as a "New tropical cyclone" when it has it at 21.0N, 70.1W, moving WNW, which is quite a bit WSW of the 0Z run's position for then:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 21.0N 70.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2022 144 21.6N 71.3W 1010 24

[Kingarabian]

Big SW shift on the 12z Euro.

[tolakram]

Weak and stalled. Will it go west if it stays weak?

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... Stalls and loops just E of Bahamas through 198... Very weak