ATL: FIONA - Models

[NDG]

The pattern to watch is if indeed the trough out on the west coast becomes cutoff and doesn't move east to push the ridge over the eastern US. If it stays put the it can be pulled OTS if a shortwave dives down over the NE US around the mid level ridge over the plains.

[aspen]

12z HWRF throws a Cat 2/3 into Anguilla on Sunday.

Yeah that’s not gonna happen.

[MississippiWx]

12z HWRF throws a Cat 2/3 into Anguilla on Sunday.

Yeah that’s not gonna happen.

HWRF is nuts. I have a hard time believing any model that strengthens Fiona quickly. GFS, ICON, and HWRF are all in this camp. I don't see it, especially with the trend of this season.

[chaser1]

Models: following all the 12Z model runs (minus EURO)- Overall westward trend, with improved conditions for development near N.E. Caribbean.
MINUS
Satellite: a seemingly weak TC moving westward at a pace quicker then anything I recall during the past month, with the LLC appearing to increasingly distance itself from any convection.
= My takeaway is that Fiona will soon weaken to a TD or wave, begin to reorganize as it nears P.R. with TS conditions and heavy rains will impacting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Haiti. Thereafter, an increased risk of further westward re-development near S.E. Bahamas. Broad scale modeling appears inconsistent but a N. GOM or S.E. CONUS threat seems more reasonable today then it did 24 hours ago.

[chaser1]

The pattern to watch is if indeed the trough out on the west coast becomes cutoff and doesn't move east to push the ridge over the eastern US. If it stays put the it can be pulled OTS if a shortwave dives down over the NE US around the mid level ridge over the plains.

Even looking at the NAM for any CONUS weaknesses and i'm just not seeing much other then a very weak 850 to surface low off Georgia underneath an otherwise nearly bridged mid level flow between the big high over Texas and W. Atlantic. More so then the operational EURO I'm eager to see if the 12Z EURO ensembles trend any more westward (as I suspect they will).

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 48 hours... 1007 mb compared to 00z 1002 mb

[KWT]

For reference Blown away the ECM is nearly a full 5 degrees further west than the HWRF is at 48hrs! Thats a huge difference for such a short period of time. The HWRF at 12z tomorrow is at 56.9w.

I think at the moment given the LLC is still trucking along westwards I've got to favour the ECM handling of the lower levels at the moment. The only way I can foresee the HWRF being right is if the LLC totally opens out and a new center forms further east.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF... 90 hrs

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF... 120 hrs

[skyline385]

12Z Euro seems similar to 0Z so far




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[Blown Away]

ECMWF 144 hrs... Uh oh!

[lsuhurricane]

Euro has this getting tangled up with Eastern Cuba. Will delay any attempt to redevelop or recurve

[NDG]

The one difference in the pattern over the next few days is that the NAO is forecasted to go near neutral by the middle of next week, during Earl it was way negative.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF... 156 hrs... Big shift W, stalled,

[SFLcane]

CMC not so crazy now...

[sma10]

https://i.imgur.com/CQbwa6I.gif
12z ECMWF... 156 hrs... Big shift W, stalled,

Not totally stalled, but moving at snail's pace. This of course is a razors edge 156 hrs out: just a smidge to the right and this is not tangled in Cuba but instead over extremely warm waters

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF...186 hrs moving NW in SE Bahamas and getting stronger.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/2mMYPES.gif
12z ECMWF...174 hrs moving off E Cuba now

Still looks like it wants to recurve. It will take a lot for this to be a SEFL impact.

EDIT: Euro ate my words.

[ronjon]

12z Euro looks like 12z CMC so far...

[chaser1]

Euro has this getting tangled up with Eastern Cuba. Will delay any attempt to redevelop or recurve

Which would imply increased potential for real deepening to not even occur until perhaps southeast of Andros Island. Depending on steering at such a time, track and impact the possibilities would seem to be pretty wide ranging (though I'd probably guess you could take Bay of Campeche off the table LOL). I'm thinking that between tonight's 0Z & morning 12Z run's, that we might see ICON and GFS start trending more westward.