ATL: IAN - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well, the good news is that the Euro and GFS finally have something of a consensus.

The bad news is that consensus is so close to the Tampa coastline that a 5-10 mile deviation east over the next 72 hours will literally make the difference between potentially major hurricane conditions and a breezy, very rainy day.

[aspen]

The 18z global and hurricane model runs show a landfall in western Cuba, no further east than Isla de la Juventud, between 06z and 09z Tuesday morning. That gives Ian another 30-36 hours over water, although tracks on the eastern side of the guidance could result in earlier land interaction with Juventud.

[ronjon]

18Z EPS mean makes a landfall near Tampa Bay

Looks like the mean actually landfalls near bradenton-sarasota area.

[StAuggy]

18Z EPS mean makes a landfall near Tampa Bay

https://i.imgur.com/XQunBqx.png

I’m looking at these members and I’m thinking… they are all going to be wrong on pressure pre Cuba. Hardly any red members before Cuba… Ian’s got to be able to make it lower than that right?

[ronjon]

Well, the good news is that the Euro and GFS finally have something of a consensus.

The bad news is that consensus is so close to the Tampa coastline that a 5-10 mile deviation east over the next 72 hours will literally make the difference between potentially major hurricane conditions and a breezy, very rainy day.

I would paraphrase it as the difference between major hurricane conditions with 10 ft of surge vs without.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z UKMET at 60 is 40 miles ESE of the 12Z at 66.

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM much stronger and east shift at 51 hours approaching SW coast of Florida.

[skillz305]

The 18Z UKMET at 60 is 40 miles ESE of the 12Z at 66.

Oh wow. Any visuals to that run?

[chaser1]

00Z NAM much stronger and east shift at 51 hours approaching SW coast of Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/Gm3wDQrY/nam-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-51.gif

Windshield wiping or honing in? My gut senses the latter

[StPeteMike]

NAM initialized already weaker than what it currently is at. Still think Ian passes Isle of Youth to the west.

[skyline385]

The 18Z UKMET at 60 is 40 miles ESE of the 12Z at 66.

Oh wow. Any visuals to that run?

Here is UKMET 12Z vs 12Z landfall vs18Z since the 06/18Z runs only go up to 60 hours

[Fancy1001]

Icons started about 10 to 12 mbar weaker than it actually is right now, not sure how that will affect the run though.

[Fancy1001]

If Ian Does decide to pay Tampa visit, we really have to hope that it had just south of Tampa rather than just north of it, At least then the storm surge would be lessened.

[skyline385]

0Z ICON mostly unchanged but slightly stronger

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon virtually no change in landfall point (Venice), but 6mb stronger in the 0z. Then rides (well slow walks since it takes nearly 24 hours) up I-4 to exit near New Smyrna Beach. Then another landfall in Edisto Beach, SC.

[Texas Snowman]

Ok, let’s stay cool here. As a friendly moderator reminder, discuss Ian in the Discussion thread for the storm. The Model thread is for talk about the model runs.

Potential is there for a stressful few days and we’ll have a lot of guests checking in, so let’s remember our rules and let’s stay on topic.

Texas Snowman

[Fancy1001]

GFS has started, let’s see if it continues the eastward shift.

[Fancy1001]

GFS is pretty much the same strength as the previous run but a tiny tiny bit to the left so far.

[Nimbus]

Icons started about 10 to 12 mbar weaker than it actually is right now, not sure how that will affect the run though.

A stronger Ian south of Cuba will likely pump up the high pressure dome it is developing under.
That would help the trough depart a little sooner.
NHC probably factored that in since they didn't call for a landfall Tampa bay south.
I still think Ian has a fair chance of reaching -85W if the dome starts to build early.

[eastcoastFL]

GFS 48H