ATL: IAN - Models
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
GFS 66H
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Significantly to the left, basically back to the 12Z position. Completely out of step with the other models.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Seems quite a bit west of last run
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Still chugging north at 72H
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
The CMC is a bit to the right at 42 hours. The GFS is starting to look like the outlier.
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PandaCitrus
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Way way west back to a Panhandle threat. It will be interesting to see the Euro which had a left shift at 18z. If it moves west like the GFS, there may be large track changes because of the stronger developing storm in the caribbean.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Worth noting the GFS is the only model showing a complete stall at about 28N.
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hohnywx
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
CrazyC83 wrote:Significantly to the left, basically back to the 12Z position. Completely out of step with the other models.
If other models hold serve this cycle, I would think you’d have to start giving them more credence over the windshield wiper GFS.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
84H moving slightly to the NNE
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
96H
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
CrazyC83 wrote:Significantly to the left, basically back to the 12Z position. Completely out of step with the other models.
Unless new data suggests trough upper level support might be waning or pulling off to the northeast at that time? Guess we'll have to see if the EURO follows suit
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Andy D
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
102H
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
00z GFS really stalls between 72-96 hrs. But this run more like 12z into the panhandle.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
If you look at total precip it has 20 inches of rain NE of Jax over the water.
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
108
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Looks like the german model was very close to the NHC 11pm advisory as any minute shift brings it South of Tampa as predicted just this afternoon.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
And landfall away from pretty much every model…
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StPeteMike
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
CMC wants to go against everyone else and strengthen Ian while moving towards Florida landfall. Interesting.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Well that wasn’t super helpful for figuring out this track
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