ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

Pinar Del Rio gets tagged a lot

Western Cuba has got to be one of the most hit places in the basin.

I am going to light up a Cohiba and have a double shot of rum as a gesture of sympathy

You really are a sweet generous person! I will do the same in solidarity for our Cuban neighbors!

[Keldeo1997]

Recon reporting that the EWRC is done.

[InfernoFlameCat]

That thing inside the eye actually looks like a feeder band. From the inside.

[eastcoastFL]

963 extrap this pass

I think this is going to continue for another 24 hours or so too. Scary.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Closed Eyewall per VDM. I think that's the first time we've seen that.

[Teban54]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1021831616605200516/1024132609590169722/Screenshot_138.png

Recon reporting that the EWRC is done.

Finally, after all it went through today, a closed eyewall.

[eastcoastFL]

Eye walls finally closed off. Pressure continues to drop. I imagine the winds will start catching up soon.

[ConvergenceZone]

I"m thinking they will go with 105 mph on the next advisory. I don't think they will keep it at 100 mph

[StAuggy]

Gcane it’s nice to see you on here!

I’ll be eagerly anticipating any info you can share on the tornado threat as well as this evolves and approaches landfall.

[AutoPenalti]

CDO ripe for RI right at DMIN.

[wx98]

I"m thinking they will go with 105 mph on the next advisory. I don't think they will keep it at 100 mph

They might but so far there isn't much to support it. Maybe this next recon pass will find something.

[wx98]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2022 Time : 005020 UTC
Lat : 20:56:12 N Lon : 83:28:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 970mb / 80kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 3.8

Center Temp : -63.1C Cloud Region Temp : -60.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

[Sanibel]

It is doing "The Fist" (sign of intensifying)...

[Beef Stew]

While I’m cognizant of stair-stepping and am seeing it occur now, I’m starting to doubt that Ian’s going end up missing the Isle of Youth. Even if it just clips it, its another subtle eastern stray like that we’ve been seeing the past few hours.

[CrazyC83]

That supports 962 mb. However, I see nothing to suggest - yet - stronger winds.

[johngaltfla]

That supports 962 mb. However, I see nothing to suggest - yet - stronger winds.

Based on the insane model shifts all day and night, do you feel as some of or local mets do that we will not have a good fix on the path until early Tuesday morning? As always, I value your opinion.

[Steve H.]

I agree. It wasn’t supposed to hit the isle of youth. It seems it’s farther east than I thought it would be. Not feeling good about this.

[GCANE]

Gcane it’s nice to see you on here!

I’ll be eagerly anticipating any info you can share on the tornado threat as well as this evolves and approaches landfall.

Much thanks.
Yup, I'll post on the tornado threat as it approaches landfall for sure.

[CrazyC83]

That supports 962 mb. However, I see nothing to suggest - yet - stronger winds.

Based on the insane model shifts all day and night, do you feel as some of or local mets do that we will not have a good fix on the path until early Tuesday morning? As always, I value your opinion.

IMO it is slightly east of the track and should go near or over the Isle of Youth. (That island is so flat it should have little impact on the intensity though - and also go over a flatter part of Cuba).

[wx98]

While I’m cognizant of stair-stepping and am seeing it occur now, I’m starting to doubt that Ian’s going end up missing the Isle of Youth. Even if it just clips it, its another subtle eastern stray like that we’ve been seeing the past few hours.

Per recon fixes and Key West radar, Ian would now need to move northeast to hit it. It will scrape the western side, but it won't hit it directly.