ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

Wobbling a little more to the left..

https://i.ibb.co/Wc1bhj4/ezgif-com-gif-maker-56.gif

Unless it's path changes in the next hour or so, IAN is going to clip the far west tip of Cuba.
That won't slow it down much, more like a speed bump but let's see what that does to the
overall track of the storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[CryHavoc]

Reminder to those living in Southern Florida: Convection from developing TCs can be vigorous, even severe. Keep an eye out for cells coming from the south. You don't need to get the brunt of Ian to take a direct hit from a severe cell, possibly even with tornadic circulation. Everyone on the entire peninsula should be weather aware for the next 72+ hours, even if Ian's eye isn't coming close to you.

[johngaltfla]

That supports 962 mb. However, I see nothing to suggest - yet - stronger winds.

Based on the insane model shifts all day and night, do you feel as some of or local mets do that we will not have a good fix on the path until early Tuesday morning? As always, I value your opinion.

IMO it is slightly east of the track and should go near or over the Isle of Youth. (That island is so flat it should have little impact on the intensity though - and also go over a flatter part of Cuba).

Thank you. I have the feeling that you won't get a lot of sleep and the 0500 update will be must see/read information for everyone from Naples north and on the East Coast of Florida now.

[Blown Away]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1021831616605200516/1024132609590169722/Screenshot_138.png

Recon reporting that the EWRC is done.

Maybe most important, .4N and still 83.3W

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wxpaparazzi/status/1574577055186157568

[Meteorcane]

Reminder to those living in Southern Florida: Convection from developing TCs can be vigorous, even severe. Keep an eye out for cells coming from the south. You don't need to get the brunt of Ian to take a direct hit from a severe cell, possibly even with tornadic circulation. Everyone on the entire peninsula should be weather aware for the next 72+ hours, even if Ian's eye isn't coming close to you.

Definitely want to highlight this point, a lot of the CAMs are showing robust convection in the very moist southerly flow regime ahead of Ian over Southeastern Florida tonight into Tuesday with some localized QPF amounts over 6-8 inches. Consequently definitely see some flooding concerns in metro SE Florida despite the core of Ian passing comfortably to the west. And with the low-lvl wind fields increasing (and naturally 0-1 SRH) there is always the potential for a quick spin up.

[pcolaman]

Closed Eyewall per VDM. I think that's the first time we've seen that.

Check out the water vapor on it and definitely an eye now in the middle of a doughnut!!

[NDG]

That's a huge trough, no wonder Ian is already moving almost due north this evening, the narrow ridging that was to its north is completely gone now.

[Canelaw99]

Reminder to those living in Southern Florida: Convection from developing TCs can be vigorous, even severe. Keep an eye out for cells coming from the south. You don't need to get the brunt of Ian to take a direct hit from a severe cell, possibly even with tornadic circulation. Everyone on the entire peninsula should be weather aware for the next 72+ hours, even if Ian's eye isn't coming close to you.

Definitely want to highlight this point, a lot of the CAMs are showing robust convection in the very moist southerly flow regime ahead of Ian over Southeastern Florida tonight into Tuesday with some localized QPF amounts over 6-8 inches. Consequently definitely see some flooding concerns in metro SE Florida despite the core of Ian passing comfortably to the west. And with the low-lvl wind fields increasing (and naturally 0-1 SRH) there is always the potential for a quick spin up.

King tides are this week as well, which always brings in extra water.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Reminder to those living in Southern Florida: Convection from developing TCs can be vigorous, even severe. Keep an eye out for cells coming from the south. You don't need to get the brunt of Ian to take a direct hit from a severe cell, possibly even with tornadic circulation. Everyone on the entire peninsula should be weather aware for the next 72+ hours, even if Ian's eye isn't coming close to you.

Definitely want to highlight this point, a lot of the CAMs are showing robust convection in the very moist southerly flow regime ahead of Ian over Southeastern Florida tonight into Tuesday with some localized QPF amounts over 6-8 inches. Consequently definitely see some flooding concerns in metro SE Florida despite the core of Ian passing comfortably to the west. And with the low-lvl wind fields increasing (and naturally 0-1 SRH) there is always the potential for a quick spin up.

Yup. And right after you said that, I looked at AMX (Miami) radar, and it shows some heavy returns pushing N through fort lauderdale. It has already started raining again, and there have been a few flashes of lightning with this already.

Earlier today, two heavy downpours dumped around 2 inches of rain here already. Atmosphere is very saturated per current mesoanalysis, with PWATS approaching 2.4 inches, if not surpassing it.

[StAuggy]

Closed Eyewall per VDM. I think that's the first time we've seen that.

Check out the water vapor on it and definitely an eye now in the middle of a doughnut!!

Eye visible on IR now for sure

[Meteorcane]

That's a huge trough, no wonder Ian is already moving almost due north this evening, the narrow ridging that was to its north is completely gone now.

Yep, I mean check out some of those postfrontal temperatures in the midwest/northeast, for much of the US (including my neck of the woods in NJ) the first real taste of fall. Unfortunately not a good setup for the west coast of Florida, although this synoptic setup becomes increasingly likely as we get into the latter part of the hurricane season.

[cheezyWXguy]

Going off the Key West radar, Ian's NE eyewall is passing about 12 miles wsw of the Isle of Youth. I know it's looking really high up, but since this isn't a tilted storm, I would think it should still hold up at the surface.

[Patrick99]

There could indeed be a pretty bad flooding event developing in SE FL. The very first band dropped almost 2 inches and already started flooding streets. Been getting more over the last hour.

[Aric Dunn]

now just left of track.. and still moving NNW

[Blown Away]

Going off the Key West radar, Ian's NE eyewall is passing about 12 miles wsw of the Isle of Youth. I know it's looking really high up, but since this isn't a tilted storm, I would think it should still hold up at the surface.

Can you provide radar link? Thanks

[skyline385]

Could be just a wobble but looking at current trends in the models it is concerning


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[cheezyWXguy]

Going off the Key West radar, Ian's NE eyewall is passing about 12 miles wsw of the Isle of Youth. I know it's looking really high up, but since this isn't a tilted storm, I would think it should still hold up at the surface.

Can you provide radar link? Thanks

I used the distance tool on Radarscope, which I could post, but it looks like Aric's already got me covered lol

[hipshot]

Going off the Key West radar, Ian's NE eyewall is passing about 12 miles wsw of the Isle of Youth. I know it's looking really high up, but since this isn't a tilted storm, I would think it should still hold up at the surface.

It looks pretty much like it will miss the Isle of Youth and go over the very far west end of Cuba and then ?? who knows.