Isn’t that model mesoscale? HRRR sounds familiar
ATL: IAN - Models
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Isn’t that model mesoscale? HRRR sounds familiar
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- chris_fit
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Seems like a connection there with the trough, but no significant E movement
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Huge west shift on Euro.
Looks stronger and slower. Earlier runs had it hooking NW at landfall. Euro looks around Apalachicola
Looks stronger and slower. Earlier runs had it hooking NW at landfall. Euro looks around Apalachicola
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Wow if that 06z Euro verified, the storm surge would just push straight up Tampa Bay.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Hurricane Mike wrote:Wow if that 06z Euro verified, the storm surge would just push straight up Tampa Bay.
For sure storm surge would happen, but the sustained hurricane winds stay offshore at that position.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Wow, big shift to the west by the 06z Euro
The forecast is becoming a nightmare.
The forecast is becoming a nightmare.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Once again, no matter how much we doubt it, and I was a doubter, the GFS simply does better in this area. It's crazy, but it also hasn't happened yet, so I still have lingering doubts. Euro consistency is meaningless in my opinion.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:
Isn’t that model mesoscale? HRRR sounds familiar
It is, doesn't have a global grid either like the high resolution NAM versions
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
tolakram wrote:Once again, no matter how much we doubt it, and I was a doubter, the GFS simply does better in this area. It's crazy, but it also hasn't happened yet, so I still have lingering doubts. Euro consistency is meaningless in my opinion.
My head is spinning between the flopping model runs at such a short time scale between Euro and GFS. 06z GFS moved east, 06z Euro moved west....now what happens at 12z? Do they finally align with each other? If we weren't talking about a CAT4 storm, most of my concern might be academic but we're literally on pins and needles on the Florida west coast now.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
tolakram wrote:Once again, no matter how much we doubt it, and I was a doubter, the GFS simply does better in this area. It's crazy, but it also hasn't happened yet, so I still have lingering doubts. Euro consistency is meaningless in my opinion.
GFS was also the first to see the stall/slowdown, I remember when so many folks were very insistent that a stall isn't possible in the Gulf in late September
Last edited by skyline385 on Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
i mean the GFS has been ALL OVER the place the last 4 days...easy to give it credit because one of them has to be right eventually lol...GFS can put it into Sanibel or Destin next run and neither would surprise me or to see it laser in on somewhere now and be right
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
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Last edited by Elsiecoro on Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
skyline385 wrote:tolakram wrote:Once again, no matter how much we doubt it, and I was a doubter, the GFS simply does better in this area. It's crazy, but it also hasn't happened yet, so I still have lingering doubts. Euro consistency is meaningless in my opinion.
GFS was also the first to see the stall/slowdown, I remember when so many folks were very insistent that a stall isn't possible in the Gulf in late September
In 50+ years tracking hurricanes, the only thing I can say with certainty is that anythings possible, even if it's never been recorded before.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
CronkPSU wrote:i mean the GFS has been ALL OVER the place the last 4 days...easy to give it credit because one of them has to be right eventually lol...GFS can put it into Sanibel or Destin next run and neither would surprise me or to see it laser in on somewhere now and be right
I made a trend comparison between the GFS and Euro a few pages back, basically both models have fluctuated nearly the same over the past 2-3 days, GFS has been on the west while the Euro has been on east.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Yeah. I don't get why some people keep calling it the "worst model for Ian" when in fact, it has the been the best this far.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
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