ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[fllawyer]

Could be just a wobble but looking at current trends in the models it is concerning
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220927/1480b00c68523740e18cfff60b1f12f4.jpg

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As in it is trending east?

[Teban54]

Delayed, but not denied.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Could be just a wobble but looking at current trends in the models it is concerning
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220927/1480b00c68523740e18cfff60b1f12f4.jpg

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As in it is trending east?

Yes. This storm reminds me a little bit or Dorian 19'. East of the track nearly all it's life.

[wx98]

Looks like a Cuban landfall is 60-70 miles away. Should be crossing the western strip while everyone is asleep.

[caneman]

Could be just a wobble but looking at current trends in the models it is concerning
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220927/1480b00c68523740e18cfff60b1f12f4.jpg

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As in it is trending east?

Looks left of track to me now. If it passes 84, I think Tampa Bay is still the risk area

[Cat5James]

now just left of track.. and still moving NNW

https://i.ibb.co/kKsnyZn/ezgif-com-gif-maker-57.gif

That is certainly not left of track. That is closer then any part of the cone has it passing the Island of the young, which would
Be right of track.

[Poonwalker]

Wobbling a little more to the left..

https://i.ibb.co/Wc1bhj4/ezgif-com-gif-maker-56.gif

The critical longitude is 84w. Inside of that is where the models are showing the east runs that turn into central Florida. West of that they show the trough not pulling as much and the more poleward solution near the coast. Iam watching that line like a hawk.

[Grumpy]

I've been out preparing for the last several hours and missed the 5:00 p.m. update, until now. Not very encouraging news. We're going to get smoked by the surge. Siesta Key, Lido Key and Longboat Key are going to be destroyed.

[psyclone]

That 11 is gonna be to my east...maybe. See if they take that hurricane warning down to Bonita beach so it includes charlotte and lee.

[FLpanhandle91]

Wow what a hot tower. This looks like the one to truly kick off substantial intensification. Recon getting there at the perfect time.

[Smurfwicked]

Could be just a wobble but looking at current trends in the models it is concerning
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220927/1480b00c68523740e18cfff60b1f12f4.jpg

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To me the IR satellite makes it look further east than it does on the radar.

Also wouldn't be surprised to see a more westerly wobble as it interacts with Cuba. Might be a technical name for it but I've seen it described like a rolling tire being dropped.

[REDHurricane]

It's go time now.

[ConvergenceZone]

I"m thinking they will go with 105 mph on the next advisory. I don't think they will keep it at 100 mph

They might but so far there isn't much to support it. Maybe this next recon pass will find something.

Sometimes they will upgrade just on satellite appearance alone. In fact, I've even heard that mentioned in discussions before when they hadn't received data yet.

[Keldeo1997]

[eastcoastFL]

I"m thinking they will go with 105 mph on the next advisory. I don't think they will keep it at 100 mph

They might but so far there isn't much to support it. Maybe this next recon pass will find something.

Sometimes they will upgrade just on satellite appearance alone. In fact, I've even heard that mentioned in discussions before when they hadn't received data yet.

They won’t do that when they have recon and radar to work with.

[Meteorcane]

I"m thinking they will go with 105 mph on the next advisory. I don't think they will keep it at 100 mph

They might but so far there isn't much to support it. Maybe this next recon pass will find something.

Sometimes they will upgrade just on satellite appearance alone. In fact, I've even heard that mentioned in discussions before when they hadn't received data yet.

Yep plenty of systems have been rated based on Dvorak analysis (which like you mentioned is based on analyzing satellite features), although generally when they have recon in the storm they won't fall back to Dvorak. That being said (despite current RECON evidence supporting a 100mph storm at best), I would be stunned if the low-lvl winds don't start responding to the deepening storm and improving convective pattern.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Probably going to get half or maybe more than half of the rainfall that the WPC is predicting for the next 5-7 days... tonight.

[johngaltfla]

That 11 is gonna be to my east...maybe. See if they take that hurricane warning down to Bonita beach so it includes charlotte and lee.

I'm wagering it stays in place through Tampa but expands south to Cape Coral. Just a hunch based on the data this evening and TVCN guidance a few hours ago.

[FLpanhandle91]

023800 2126N 08324W 6983 02881 9778 +089 +011 121074 081 085 018 00

Cat 3 FL winds.

[psyclone]

That 11 is gonna be to my east...maybe. See if they take that hurricane warning down to Bonita beach so it includes charlotte and lee.

I'm wagering it stays in place through Tampa but expands south to Cape Coral. Just a hunch based on the data this evening and TVCN guidance a few hours ago.

the southern breakpoint for NWS Ruskin is Bonita beach...that separates the tampa cwa from miami. that's the one they would use