ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Poonwalker]

It’s looking like the eye will plow into Cuba at 84w. Look at the models and you can see they had Ian east of that point around 83.5w. I hate to say it but there will be a west shift based on that launching point.

[sponger]

Looks like a Cuban landfall is 60-70 miles away. Should be crossing the western strip while everyone is asleep.

Not going anywhere until 2am model run! This one is for all the marbles!!!!!

[wx98]

Now I could see them going with 105 at the update.

[jfk08c]

Area where it crosses Cuba is only one factor in this. I believe trough timing will have a much bigger effect on direction moving forward

[wx98]

It’s looking like the eye will plow into Cuba at 84w. Look at the models and you can see they had Ian east of that point around 83.5w. I hate to say it but there will be a west shift based on that launching point.

I wouldn't put all your eggs in that particular basket just yet.

[FLpanhandle91]

I believe NHC was waiting for that pass for the 11PM advisory.

I can see 105mph 963mb.

[skillz305]

It’s looking like the eye will plow into Cuba at 84w. Look at the models and you can see they had Ian east of that point around 83.5w. I hate to say it but there will be a west shift based on that launching point.

I wouldn't put all your eggs in that particular basket just yet.

Just gotta let Mother Nature do it’s thing.

[CrazyC83]

I agree, that data suggests 90 kt for the intensity.

[Poonwalker]

It’s looking like the eye will plow into Cuba at 84w. Look at the models and you can see they had Ian east of that point around 83.5w. I hate to say it but there will be a west shift based on that launching point.

I wouldn't put all your eggs in that particular basket just yet.

It’s not just the point but the angle as it exits and the influence of the trough at that distance created, timing included. Unless that trough is much deeper the models handled that similarly both the Euro and Gfs.

[ConvergenceZone]

They might but so far there isn't much to support it. Maybe this next recon pass will find something.

Sometimes they will upgrade just on satellite appearance alone. In fact, I've even heard that mentioned in discussions before when they hadn't received data yet.

They won’t do that when they have recon and radar to work with.

Well yea if they already have the data. I'm speaking of the few times when the data hasn't come in yet and there's no recon. They usually only do this if the satellite has a very impressive improvement however, at least from my experience when reading the discussions over the years. But it sounds like they are waiting on recon which is good news

[eastcoastFL]

It you live in a flood prone area in Martin County they will be making sandbags available tomorrow morning:::



MARTIN COUNTY UNDER TROPICAL STORM WATCH & FLOOD WATCH

Martin County continues to monitor Hurricane Ian and make preparations to ensure continued operations. Martin County is currently under a Tropical Storm Watch and a Flood Watch, with flooding rain and tornadoes being the greatest threats for our area. The National Weather Service anticipates Martin County may receive 4-6 inches of rain and winds of 25-35 mph.

Sandbags


Details:

In anticipation of potential impacts from Hurricane Ian, sand and sandbags will be made available to Martin County residents on Tuesday, September 27 at Halpatiokee Regional Park, located at 8303 SW Lost River Road in Stuart.

Sandbag operations will run from 9 a.m. until 5 p.m. in the parking lot located immediately south of the hockey rink at the main entrance of the park.

Martin County residents are allowed up to 25 sandbags per residence, and we ask that you provide your name and address for documentation. County staff will be available to assist in filling bags, but residents are encouraged to bring their own shovels to expedite the loading process.

[NDG]

Ok, I can now say Ian is a legit Cat 2.

URNT15 KBIX 270246
AF301 1809A IAN HDOB 42 20220927
023600 2131N 08319W 6969 02972 9867 +084 +009 123086 087 071 031 03
023630 2130N 08321W 6960 02963 9841 +087 +009 125096 098 074 024 00
023700 2128N 08322W 6958 02946 9817 +089 +010 126098 101 077 021 00
023730 2127N 08323W 6969 02915 9788 +097 +011 123085 094 081 027 00
023800 2126N 08324W 6983 02881 9778 +089 +011 121074 081 085 018 00
023830 2124N 08325W 6942 02908 9751 +097 +011 134070 078 083 020 00
023900 2123N 08326W 6989 02841 9713 +119 +012 140054 062 078 011 00
023930 2122N 08327W 6969 02858 9688 +132 +013 143041 048 069 002 03
024000 2121N 08329W 6963 02858 9671 +140 +015 147030 038 053 003 00
024030 2120N 08330W 6966 02849 9653 +152 +015 158024 027 040 001 03
024100 2119N 08332W 6967 02844 9643 +158 +019 152014 022 030 002 00
024130 2118N 08333W 6970 02845 9634 +170 +021 128005 011 023 000 00
024200 2116N 08335W 6965 02853 9633 +173 +022 036006 008 022 000 00
024230 2115N 08336W 6966 02856 9646 +165 +025 001010 012 020 001 00
024300 2113N 08337W 6968 02859 9664 +152 +026 325017 021 032 001 00
024330 2112N 08338W 6970 02864 9673 +151 +026 314027 030 037 002 00
024400 2110N 08339W 6961 02880 9683 +146 +027 310037 040 043 003 00
024430 2108N 08340W 6966 02884 9704 +139 +026 308050 055 065 007 00
024500 2106N 08340W 6973 02892 9707 +151 +024 302063 067 086 011 00
024530 2105N 08341W 6960 02924 9736 +140 +024 297065 069 085 013 03
$$

[skillz305]

It’s looking like the eye will plow into Cuba at 84w. Look at the models and you can see they had Ian east of that point around 83.5w. I hate to say it but there will be a west shift based on that launching point.

I wouldn't put all your eggs in that particular basket just yet.

It’s not just the point but the angle as it exits and the influence of the trough at that distance created. Unless that trough is much deeper the models handled that similarly both the Euro and Gfs.

Looks like the wobble, wobbled right back. Maybe an illusion?

[ElectricStorm]

Yep looks like the winds are starting to catch up now

[eastcoastFL]

Sometimes they will upgrade just on satellite appearance alone. In fact, I've even heard that mentioned in discussions before when they hadn't received data yet.

They won’t do that when they have recon and radar to work with.

Well yea if they already have the data. I'm speaking of the few times when the data hasn't come in yet. They usually only do this if the satellite has a very impressive improvement however, at least from my experience when reading the discussions over the years. But it sounds like they already have the data which is good news

Ok, I see what you mean.

[FLpanhandle91]

11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 26
Location: 21.3°N 83.4°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[Hammy]

11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 26
Location: 21.3°N 83.4°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN
IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

[eastcoastFL]

It’s looking like the eye will plow into Cuba at 84w. Look at the models and you can see they had Ian east of that point around 83.5w. I hate to say it but there will be a west shift based on that launching point.

I wouldn't put all your eggs in that particular basket just yet.

It’s not just the point but the angle as it exits and the influence of the trough at that distance created, timing included. Unless that trough is much deeper the models handled that similarly both the Euro and Gfs.

The last euro run the trough looked much deeper and it dug much further south. I don’t know if they’ll shift the track either way but i wouldn’t count on much movement west. Not a lot to support that at the moment.

[skyline385]

small shift east