ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/uVCstTjB_sk[/youtube]

[cane5]

I'm just glad to see that the words "monster" are no longer being used with this storm and how many models are backing off from the high end strength they were showing much earlier.........Hot oceanic temperatures mean nothing when there is shear and dry air you are contending with...........The best thing that can happen now is that models can continue to shift east and maybe we'll get lucky and it will just hit the the southern part of Florida as a weak hurricane and then move out to sea. Regardless of the direction, I feel MUCH MUCH better about this than I did 2 or 3 days ago........

Well that’s real great I live in Miami

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm just glad to see that the words "monster" are no longer being used with this storm and how many models are backing off from the high end strength they were showing much earlier.........Hot oceanic temperatures mean nothing when there is shear and dry air you are contending with...........The best thing that can happen now is that models can continue to shift east and maybe we'll get lucky and it will just hit the the southern part of Florida as a weak hurricane and then move out to sea. Regardless of the direction, I feel MUCH MUCH better about this than I did 2 or 3 days ago........

This feels incredibly premature.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm just glad to see that the words "monster" are no longer being used with this storm and how many models are backing off from the high end strength they were showing much earlier.........Hot oceanic temperatures mean nothing when there is shear and dry air you are contending with...........The best thing that can happen now is that models can continue to shift east and maybe we'll get lucky and it will just hit the the southern part of Florida as a weak hurricane and then move out to sea. Regardless of the direction, I feel MUCH MUCH better about this than I did 2 or 3 days ago........

Well that’s real great I live in Miami

Well, my hope is that if it WERE to hit the MIami area that it wouldn't be very strong.......I have several friends that live there as well.........But I like where wxman is putting it right now, somewhere between tampa and fort myers seems reasonable at this time, but of course that could change...

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm just glad to see that the words "monster" are no longer being used with this storm and how many models are backing off from the high end strength they were showing much earlier.........Hot oceanic temperatures mean nothing when there is shear and dry air you are contending with...........The best thing that can happen now is that models can continue to shift east and maybe we'll get lucky and it will just hit the the southern part of Florida as a weak hurricane and then move out to sea. Regardless of the direction, I feel MUCH MUCH better about this than I did 2 or 3 days ago........

This feels incredibly premature.

It could be. But we shall see won't we? Afterall, it is 2022 , the year of weird and crazy tropical storms. Anything can happen, I just like the odds here.

[tolakram]

I'm just glad to see that the words "monster" are no longer being used with this storm and how many models are backing off from the high end strength they were showing much earlier.........Hot oceanic temperatures mean nothing when there is shear and dry air you are contending with...........The best thing that can happen now is that models can continue to shift east and maybe we'll get lucky and it will just hit the the southern part of Florida as a weak hurricane and then move out to sea. Regardless of the direction, I feel MUCH MUCH better about this than I did 2 or 3 days ago........

Well that’s real great I live in Miami

Well, my hope is that if it WERE to hit the MIami area that it wouldn't be very strong.......I have several friends that live there as well.........But I like where wxman is putting it right now, somewhere between tampa and fort myers seems reasonable at this time, but of course that could change...

Who used monster besides a few amateurs? Let's stop over and under hyping the storm, it's too early and I think declaring things this early is pretty darn close to trolling.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well that’s real great I live in Miami

Well, my hope is that if it WERE to hit the MIami area that it wouldn't be very strong.......I have several friends that live there as well.........But I like where wxman is putting it right now, somewhere between tampa and fort myers seems reasonable at this time, but of course that could change...

Who used monster besides a few amateurs? Let's stop over and under hyping the storm, it's too early and I think declaring things this early is pretty darn close to trolling.

No Problem Mark

[Blown Away]

Improving by the hour... @12N/67W

[Iceresistance]

It appears that the NHC has prepared a whole fleet of Recon for 98L, they're ready.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1573000974872055808

[psyclone]

We're still in the "something may or may not happen" phase. I wouldn't be remotely worried yet. Hopefully if a storm does happen we get some drier and cooler air in its wake so it's less miserable for anyone stuck without power. That's a potential advantage of a late season storm...if there is such a thing..
Beyond that, I'm excited for a PTC designation just so we can start getting some NHC forecasts..

[SFLcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221748
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda,
and on Tropical Storm Gaston, located a few hundred miles
west-northwest of the central Azores.

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that an area
of low pressure has formed in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, though
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized. The environment is forecast to become more conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the
next day or so. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward and
be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend where conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development. Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the Windward Islands,
northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain today. These impacts
are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia later this evening.
Interests in Jamaica should closely monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Lightning48]

Please remember Charley Jumped from a 1 to a cat 4 in 6 hours when in that vicinity-Granted that was August but as someone else mentioned intensity is still a major guess when it comes to these unpredictable water creatures

[SconnieCane]

Beyond that, I'm excited for a PTC designation just so we can start getting some NHC forecasts..

TD will come before PTC with this system as long as it actually forms before watches/warnings need to be issued for land.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/dc6tT3k.gif
Improving by the hour... @12N/67W

Quite a vigorous spin just north of South America. This should come together relatively quickly once it pulls away from land and UL shear starts to become less hostile starting tomorrow.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/MDR_Titan/status/1573007529491238912

[wxman57]

I still don't think that the shear will drop off enough for consolidation until Saturday. Lots of questions regarding potential intensity when it enters the Gulf. The Gulf hasn't been that favorable for development all summer. Models, particularly the Euro, indicate shear and dry air could be an issue in the Gulf. For now, if I lived anywhere in Florida, I'd make sure I have supplies to sustain my family for a week. Focus may be more on the peninsula than the panhandle. If you wait until the NHC issues a forecast, then it's too late. All supplies will be gone.

[AnnularCane]

Please remember Charley Jumped from a 1 to a cat 4 in 6 hours when in that vicinity-Granted that was August but as someone else mentioned intensity is still a major guess when it comes to these unpredictable water creatures

I've said before and I'll say it again. Never trust the Gulf.

[Iceresistance]

Please remember Charley Jumped from a 1 to a cat 4 in 6 hours when in that vicinity-Granted that was August but as someone else mentioned intensity is still a major guess when it comes to these unpredictable water creatures

I've said before and I'll say it again. Never trust the Gulf.

Or the Caribbean, especially after Delta 2020.

[shah83]

The variance could be high. Like for example, a storm could overall be expected to have a certain strength, but if there's any kind of window, and some degree of RI happens, it will keep some of the structure accumulation when the disadvantageous overall situation reasserts itself. My feeling is that the models, aside from the coamps, is probably underdoing intensity at Cuba.

[Hurricaneman]

https://i.imgur.com/dc6tT3k.gif
Improving by the hour... @12N/67W

Coming together but still 35kts of NE shear but lessening since yesterday when there was 50kts+ of shear and should be about 20kts by morning maybe