ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 95 knots, MSLP 959 mb based on that last pass. I'd like to see flight level winds up a bit before going with MH but should be one in short order.

Same here. In the absence of additional data, I'd set it at 95 kt for the 2 am advisory.

[wx98]

That pass supports 110 mph/960 mbar. You could make a case to upgrade to Cat 3 though, since technically it starts at 111 mph.

[bob rulz]

The "tropical storm conditions possible" for Thursday has now updated by the local NWS office to "Hurricane conditions possible" here.

Guess it could get interesting here on the Space Coast.

Good thing they rolled SLS back.

[TheDreamTraveler]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1574595184804757505?s=20&t=xP41KgI-GjxjPrhWSN9vDw

It's still mind blowing to me that the biggest surge ever recorded in the Tampa Bay was 4 feet during the Storm of the Century in 1993. And yet Ian's forecast surge is going to be 6-10 feet at least. This just shows you how rare powerful major hurricane strikes like this are on this part of the west coast of Florida

[cheezyWXguy]

Should note the eye we’re seeing on IR is only the eastern half. The western half is still underneath convection, so that probably accounts for the discrepancy we’re seeing between IR and radar

Just use Key West radar. It’s in range.

Agreed, that’s what I used to see that there was a discrepancy

[FLpanhandle91]

Ian is currently 10-20mb stronger than almost every single model not named HWRF forecasted it to be at this point.

[Hurricane Mike]

Looking more and more like Ian will come ashore as a major.

[wx98]

If it continues NNW it’s about 45 miles from landfall. That part of Cuba is roughly 50 miles N to S, so it’s probably about 8-10 hours from emerging into the Gulf.

[tolakram]

[eastcoastFL]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1574595184804757505?s=20&t=xP41KgI-GjxjPrhWSN9vDw

It's still mind blowing to me that the biggest surge ever recorded in the Tampa Bay was 4 feet during the Storm of the Century in 1993. And yet Ian's forecast surge is going to be 6-10 feet at least. This just shows you how rare powerful major hurricane strikes like this are on this part of the west coast of Florida

If the GFS is right they could see nearly 4 feet of rain.

[tolakram]

[psyclone]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1574595184804757505?s=20&t=xP41KgI-GjxjPrhWSN9vDw

It's still mind blowing to me that the biggest surge ever recorded in the Tampa Bay was 4 feet during the Storm of the Century in 1993. And yet Ian's forecast surge is going to be 6-10 feet at least. This just shows you how rare powerful major hurricane strikes like this are on this part of the west coast of Florida

Low hurricane frequency was a factor in my decision to relocate here. having said that...going a century without a major is a remarkable luck streak. there's too many storms recurving from down south to not expect a biggie every 30 years or so.

[Teban54]

Ian is currently 10-20mb stronger than almost every single model not named HWRF forecasted it to be at this point.

For the past 3 days, HWRF consistently predicted its current intensity to be in the 950s or 960s, barring a few earlier runs.

Actual intensity right now (as per extrap): 959.6 mb. Wind likely 95 kt or 100 kt.

Looks like Ian is precisely on track.

[NDG]

[Knight85]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1574595184804757505?s=20&t=xP41KgI-GjxjPrhWSN9vDw

It's still mind blowing to me that the biggest surge ever recorded in the Tampa Bay was 4 feet during the Storm of the Century in 1993. And yet Ian's forecast surge is going to be 6-10 feet at least. This just shows you how rare powerful major hurricane strikes like this are on this part of the west coast of Florida

If the GFS is right they could see nearly 4 feet of rain.

The ground in the Tampa Bay area is waterlogged as it is. Driving along Bayshore in Safety Harbor, the drainage ditches are nearly topped already.

[Kazmit]

Ian is currently 10-20mb stronger than almost every single model not named HWRF forecasted it to be at this point.

For the past 3 days, HWRF consistently predicted its current intensity to be in the 950s or 960s, barring a few earlier runs.

Actual intensity right now (as per extrap): 959.6 mb. Wind likely 95 kt or 100 kt.
Looks like Ian is precisely on track.
https://i.postimg.cc/j2gctfwn/hwrf-mslp-wind-09-L-fh9-trend.gif

HWRF nails it a lot of the time.

[eastcoastFL]

It's still mind blowing to me that the biggest surge ever recorded in the Tampa Bay was 4 feet during the Storm of the Century in 1993. And yet Ian's forecast surge is going to be 6-10 feet at least. This just shows you how rare powerful major hurricane strikes like this are on this part of the west coast of Florida

If the GFS is right they could see nearly 4 feet of rain.

The ground in the Tampa Bay area is waterlogged as it is. Driving along Bayshore in Safety Harbor, the drainage ditches are nearly topped already.

This is an ugly set up all around for tampa area. I hope people are listening to the evacuation orders. One thing I like to stress is even if you get lucky and your home is fine you're still stuck. No power and roads are impassable for who knows how long. It's just not worth it to stay if you're in an evacuation area.

[Hurricane Mike]

Here's a midnight video update for my fellow night owls. Ian is strengthening faster than the videos can be uploaded! Crazy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4ButSWScuc

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Really looking mean tonight. CDO is a bit ragged, but that eye is definitely starting to pop.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like they upgraded the TS watch for Lake Okeechobee to a TS warning, the 11pm public advisory still said TS watch for Lake Okeechobee..

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Miami FL
1111 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

AMZ610-271115-
/O.UPG.KMFL.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KMFL.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Lake Okeechobee-
1111 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 60 kt and seas
up to 3 ft.

* WHERE...Lake Okeechobee.

* WHEN...Tropical Storm force winds possible from early
Wednesday morning until Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which
could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$