ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1565030667121053700

[ScottNAtlanta]

Something I noticed late last night was the ULL dropping down was supposed to tug this in a more northerly direction, it was to the NW of 91L. Today the ULL has flattened out slightly and it looks as if 91L is moving underneath it and will be SW of it soon. Also the snapshot of the dry air is pretty much the way it has been the last couple of days. They have been moving in tandem.
If you look at the water vapor loop you can see high pressure building in from the east that should move it along with the system above keeping it from moving much more northerly in the short term

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=91L&product=wv_mid

[MGC]

91L looks dang close to being a TC.....might already be one. Of course I've been fooled many times by an awesome satellite presentation......MGC

[IsabelaWeather]

91L looks dang close to being a TC.....might already be one. Of course I've been fooled many times by an awesome satellite presentation......MGC

Yes it actually looks remarkable right now. Im seeing curved banding setting up and everything.

Still looks to be moving due WEST

[aspen]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidb ... gr%5Etweet

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1565024699372908544?t=hsipK9vSa2ordEbIwS0_Bg&s=19

Is this an error? Is this for 91L or 93L?

[hipshot]

Starting to recover some convection, but there's still a lot going against it (WV helps see it)

https://i.imgur.com/YwLz2u1.gif

The dry air doesnt seem like a problem, the dry air has no way into the storm and its created a nice pocket of moist air.


Also looks like it's still moving due W to me.

It looks to me like the low level circulation is now under the northern blob on the west end at about 15N, I don't see any real low level circulation
under the southern "blob". But that is just my amateur opinion.

[drezee]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1565024699372908544?t=hsipK9vSa2ordEbIwS0_Bg&s=19

Is this an error? Is this for 91L or 93L?

Fixed it

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1564979759980986371

[cycloneye]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Data from a NOAA aircraft reconnaissance mission earlier today
showed little change in organization of the area of low pressure
located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive,
additional gradual development of this system is expected and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern
Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Teban54]

Looks like convection is starting to poof again

[IsabelaWeather]

Looks like convection is starting to poof again

This is typical with a developing TC

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like convection is starting to poof again

Until this becomes vertically stacked, convection will wax and wane.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any significant risk to the islands of the NE Caribbean. Should pass well to the north Fri-Sat. Nothing to keep it on a westerly track into the islands.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like convection is starting to poof again

Wouldn't it be funny if this thing opened up into a wave and never became a cyclone.

[Iceresistance]

Looks like convection is starting to poof again

Wouldn't it be funny if this thing opened up into a wave and never became a cyclone.

I would be basically like this: "All of this for nothing!?"

[zal0phus]

Looks like convection is starting to poof again

Wouldn't it be funny if this thing opened up into a wave and never became a cyclone.

This but unironically

[tolakram]

SLIDER proxy visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15830&y=7418&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[tolakram]

Current shear