ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skillz305]

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/s/85ae

For all of those who live in the Tampa/Bradenton/Sarasota area, I have found this site to quite informative
regarding storm surge impacts. It is interactive and you can zoom to neighborhood level.

Warning, it appears to project devastating impact to a broad area.

Is this the current track? Just waking up, looks similar to 11pm last night. But, I thought it was shifting south?

NHC will make cone shifts and advisory updates at 11am EST

[Jelmergraaff]

Ian’s extrapolated pressure has gone up another ~5mb this pass. The eye is about to move over water, so I think the pressure should stabilize around 960mb.

However, it did show an unflagged SFMR of 107/108kts.

[Cat5James]

With IAN already moving east of due north, I expect to see TS watches in Broward and Miami-Dade today.

[HurricaneBelle]

The air does feel a bit cooler and drier than last night in Tallahassee. I think the trough is right over us. The chances of a Panhandle landfall appear to be diminishing though I’m still watching closely.

I'm currently in your fair town (albeit at risk with a Gators plate) after fleein' Ian from Clearwater and am enjoying actual sub-70 dewpoints *and* temperatures. Looks like I won't have to be on the move again since the chance of the storm making a real impact up here is dwindling.

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

For folks who are already giving Tampa the clear, I have a question to ask: wouldn't the high likelihood that Ian ends up as a much larger system than, say, Charley, make Tampa still in the danger zone even if the hurricane doesn't like make landfall over the city directly?

No one put Tampa in the clear. It might have a better result as far as surge up the bay initially, but by going south this means Tampa gets a record amount of rainfall. Every wobble counts on the way in.

[Sanibel]

Sanibel residents should probably act like Ian is coming here directly and hope the NHC track holds...My eye is seeing a slight NNE trend in the track across Cuba, which suggests that we will get enough of a core edge to treat this as the real threat it is...We might even get a direct hit...This could be the "Big One" and the surge prediction might even be too low this time...


Going to full evacuation mode right now and if you live down here you should do the same...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[TheHurricaneGod]

What are the chances that the NHC puts hurricane watches for east coast central Florida at 11am? My job isn’t taking this storm seriously in St. Lucie County (boat manufacture)

Your chances are increasing by the hour and with that latest recon fix, we have east of north motion albeit probably short term, every mile matters, especially at this angle of approach. Also, the environment is much more conducive for hurricanes south of tampa. Key West could get scraped by the eyewall and as usual, they are ready. They aren't keen to evacuate in the keys for any storm but they know how to be prepared.

Might end up being TS warnings for palm beach county on southward and possibly hurricane warnings for martin county, st lucie county, and the lake okeechobee region.

[Jelmergraaff]

The eye is still very well in tact. Seems to clear out again as well.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MrJamesCosgrove/status/1574743603200806912

[Fancy1001]

Ian seems to be heading north east so he’s taking longer to get off of Cuba

[TheHurricaneGod]

Dewpoints are in the low 50s across northern Florida this morning. Rain is hitting a wall a little north of fort myers and lake okeechobee. not sure if this was supposed to happen yet.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like my job aren't taking this watch too seriously and we are at the very tip of TS Watches in Deerfield Beach.

[Blown Away]

What are the chances that the NHC puts hurricane watches for east coast central Florida at 11am? My job isn’t taking this storm seriously in St. Lucie County (boat manufacture)

Your chances are increasing by the hour and with that latest recon fix, we have east of north motion albeit probably short term, every mile matters, especially at this angle of approach. Also, the environment is much more conducive for hurricanes south of tampa. Key West could get scraped by the eyewall and as usual, they are ready. They aren't keen to evacuate in the keys for any storm but they know how to be prepared.

Ian continues moving slightly E of due N.

[tolakram]

Dewpoints are in the low 50s across northern Florida this morning. Rain is hitting a wall a little north of fort myers and lake okeechobee. not sure if this was supposed to happen yet.

Yep, there's a jet streak over head and a stalled / slow moving front. Classic setup to vent a hurricane.

[jdjaguar]

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/s/85ae

For all of those who live in the Tampa/Bradenton/Sarasota area, I have found this site to quite informative
regarding storm surge impacts. It is interactive and you can zoom to neighborhood level.

Warning, it appears to project devastating impact to a broad area.

Is this the current track? Just waking up, looks similar to 11pm last night. But, I thought it was shifting south?

NHC 17 data has now been posted. There is an Advisory/Track window on the top bar. Select that and scroll to latest data. Map will refresh.

[jdjaguar]

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/s/85ae

For all of those who live in the Tampa/Bradenton/Sarasota area, I have found this site to quite informative
regarding storm surge impacts. It is interactive and you can zoom to neighborhood level.

Warning, it appears to project devastating impact to a broad area.

Is this the current track? Just waking up, looks similar to 11pm last night. But, I thought it was shifting south?

NHC 17 data has now been posted. There is an Advisory/Track window on the top bar. Select that and scroll to latest data. Map will refresh.

Bradenton/Sarasota now. Tampa appears to avoid the devastating surge with the shift south as of 5 am update.

[Fancy1001]

What are the chances that the NHC puts hurricane watches for east coast central Florida at 11am? My job isn’t taking this storm seriously in St. Lucie County (boat manufacture)

Your chances are increasing by the hour and with that latest recon fix, we have east of north motion albeit probably short term, every mile matters, especially at this angle of approach. Also, the environment is much more conducive for hurricanes south of tampa. Key West could get scraped by the eyewall and as usual, they are ready. They aren't keen to evacuate in the keys for any storm but they know how to be prepared.

https://i.imgur.com/abCroa0.gif

Ian continues moving slightly E of due N.

The last few frames show it moving north east

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Incredibly enough, at least in terms of IR presentation, Ian appears to be looking more impressive now than it did a few hours ago.

[AutoPenalti]

For SE metro areas

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1574742007880318983