ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

Yeah although it took a minor hit intensity wise crossing Cuba, the structure looks well intact and would assume it regains its initial intensity and then some over the next few hours. I am not one for wobble watching in the very short term (i.e. over the course of a couple hours) as they tend to cancel out over the scheme of things... but I do think some clear right (east) of track motion has been apparent for several hours now which could have a legit impact on the future track and primary impacts on the Florida Peninsula. Hopefully the folks in Fort Myers haven't been overly complacent... heck even Naples could have some issues if the trend continues further.

Edit: I saw after posting this initially they expanded the hurricane watches southward in SW Florida, and filled in the tropical storm watches for metro SE Florida... seems reasonable to me based on trends.

[Category6]

23.0N 83.5W is Ian's position as of the 11 am advisory

For reference, per last night's 11 pm advisory, Ian was forecasted to be at 22.8N 83.7W. He's definitely further north and east.

[underthwx]

11 am forecast track is essentially not too much different from the previous one?...and the 11am discussion mentions that the southwesterly shear is forecast to increase by tomorrow, but not enough to significantly weaken Ian prior to landfall. The point to remember is that Ian will be landfalling as an "extremely dangerous hurricane"(NHC) in Southwestern Florida, prepare accordingly my friends...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hurricane watch is in effect south from Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee. That is Lee and Collier Counties.

[Kazmit]

The wind field has increased significantly since before it crossed Cuba.

[eastcoastFL]

ADT is at 6.3

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2022 Time : 142020 UTC
Lat : 23:01:12 N Lon : 83:27:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 937mb / 122kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +11.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

It's too high, but the structure of this system is impressive.

Yup, Ian is going to continue to intensify on approach. At least for the next 12-24 hours.

[jlauderdal]

Amazing this NE movement, little burst of acceleration in last few frames.

Remember Irene?

[psyclone]

We're going to end up emptying out tampa bay rather overflowing it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Also on this path Ian will be crossing the highest temperature water in the GOM off the FL west coast. I said a little prayer of thanks this morning that my parents will not be going to Bonita Beach for the winter for another 2 weeks. Hopefully they will have somewhere to go to.

[eastcoastFL]

New watches and warnings

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the U.S. east coast from
Marineland Florida to the mouth of St. Mary's River including the
St. Johns River, and the Dry Tortugas. Along the Florida west
coast, a Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Suwanee River to
Anclote River.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the west coast of Florida from
south of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St.
Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the U.S. east coast has been
extended north to Altamaha Sound Georgia and south to Boca Raton
Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from south of Boca Raton to east
of Flamingo Florida, for the upper Florida Keys and Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to
South Santee River South Carolina.

[eastcoastFL]

[cycloneye]

Anyone has the closeup view of trayectory with the line?

[SFLcane]

I am offically under a TS warning!

[dpep4]

Anyone has the closeup view of trayectory with the line?

I just zoom in on the NHC interactive cone and make sure to have "track" checked. Now showing landfall just north of Venice.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents

[Category5Kaiju]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092022_3day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/100939_3day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

With a core that big, which will likely expand upon landfall, there’s little doubt that even if landfall is south of Tampa, that the city could unfortunately experience high winds and rain. This is not Charley 2.0. It’s much bigger.

[CourierPR]

https://i.imgur.com/Mcooqnp.gif
Amazing this NE movement, little burst of acceleration in last few frames.

Remember Irene?

I remember how we were told Irene would pass well to our west in the GOM, then suddenly it was headed toward the southern FL peninsula.

[edu2703]

Anyone has the closeup view of trayectory with the line?

[jdray]

NWS JAX updates

From Briefing PDF on 09/27/2022 06:00
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf



000
FXUS62 KJAX 271257
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
857 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

.UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday Night)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Wednesday into Thursday night, waves of showers with scattered
embedded storms will be on the increase from south to north
first over NE FL, then progress into SE GA by the late afternoon
to early evening hours as Hurricane Ian moves northward. As of
early this morning, the National Hurricane center is forecasting
the system to be a Major Hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
on Wednesday with a slowing trend as it approaches the west coast
of FL late Wednesday into Wednesday night. A plume of tropical
moisture will move ahead of the system and drive very heavy
rainfall rates both Wednesday over the southern half of the area
and into the day Thursday as the system is forecast to creep over
west central FL and the Weather Prediction center has a moderate
risk for excessive rainfall both days, first over NE FL areas from
I-10 southward and then over most of the area on Thursday as the
system weakens and slowly enters southern portions of the area by
Thursday night with about 3 to 5 inches of rain expected over the
highlighted moderate risk areas during the day. Winds on Wednesday
will become very breezy along the coast as high pressure builds
in from the northwest and then over southern portions of NE FL
areas as Hurricane Ian approaches from the southwest where
tropical Storm conditions will begin to develop. Tropical Storm
conditions will slowly translate northward towards the
Jacksonville area and along the FL/GA state line by late Wednesday
night into Thursday, then into SE GA areas by daytime Thursday as
high pressure builds north of the region. A threat for isolated
tornadoes will also be expected Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday, models have been shifting the track of Ian more east into
the central and northern FL peninsula while slowing it`s forward
speed and this will continue the heavy rainfall and flooding
threat into at least Friday as Ian weakens and lifts north through
our area. Despite Ian likely weakening a lot over land Friday,
tropical storm conditions will still be possible over most of
the area with only gradually improving conditions from south to
north by late Friday into Friday night as what`s left of the
circulation swirls northward.

Flash and Urban/low lying flooding impacts will be likely Wednesday
through Friday due to the succession of tropical rainbands crossing
over much of the area along with potential for river flooding as
well. The greatest wind impacts will come down to where Ian
ultimately tracks, though an isolated tornado threat is also
expected as our area will be on the right side of the storm track
though at least Friday.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1574753884542730240

[Iceresistance]

VDM at 963 mb

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022
A. 27/14:27:20Z
B. 22.93 deg N 083.50 deg W
C. 700 mb 2775 m
D. 963 mb
E. 150 deg 5 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C18
H. 75 kt
I. 050 deg 9 nm 14:24:30Z
J. 135 deg 89 kt
K. 047 deg 14 nm 14:23:00Z
L. 78 kt
M. 349 deg 8 nm 14:34:00Z
N. 093 deg 87 kt
O. 352 deg 12 nm 14:35:00Z
P. 8 C / 3061 m
Q. 14 C / 3055 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1.75 nm
U. AF302 2109A IAN OB 09 CCA
MAX FL WIND 94 KT 057 / 7 NM 13:03:30Z

Eye is smaller at 18 Nautical Miles Circular.