12Z Euro (missing frames)
18Z GFS so far
ATL: FIONA - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models
Got busy, come back and everything has changed. I thought the Euro seemed to be driving Fiona into a building ridge, I wonder what changed to get it to correct the track. I still think this is mostly determined by early strengthening vs a particular upper air patter driving the track. Weak west, strong north kind of thing. Going to be some nervous days until the tracks are more in agreement.
12Z Euro (missing frames)
18Z GFS so far
12Z Euro (missing frames)
18Z GFS so far
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M a r k
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TheHurricaneGod
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models
As of 192 its trapped under a ridge, but a trough is moving in from the midwest. over western SD at 192. We'll see if it shows the trough capturing it and pushing it away from land.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models
Intensity guidance starting to go up after 5 days, I'm thinking there's a pretty good chance this becomes something fairly strong once it clears the islands, wherever that may be...
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skyline385
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models
skyline385 wrote:Still moving slowly NNW
Seems like that the Steering currents collapsed. It's heading towards South or North Carolina.
What a crazy run, jeez.
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models
18Z GFS headed to NC landfall?
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models
What a massive windshield wiper move to the W by the GFS. It feels icky because it’s soooo much closer to the latest CMC & Euro.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models
Model is down to 945mb. Gfs makes this a monster. Guess Fiona becomes an ogre this run 
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models
ElectricStorm wrote:Intensity guidance starting to go up after 5 days, I'm thinking there's a pretty good chance this becomes something fairly strong once it clears the islands, wherever that may be...
https://i.imgur.com/bY49XJ1.png
The environment seems to be good. Probably a matter of how shredded the storm gets by the islands.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models
It scrapes North Carolina as a Cat 4.
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skyline385
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models
Models seem to be pointing towards a weak, disorganized system getting entangled with Hispaniola thru the next 5 days... we've seen some pretty wild track shifts with these types of scenarios before. Not surprised to see models making such major shifts.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jlauderdal
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FIONA - Models
Imagine what the hwrf will do with it, 920 is possibleInfernoFlameCat wrote:Model is down to 945mb. Gfs makes this a monster. Guess Fiona becomes an ogre this run
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