ATL: IAN - Models

[gatorcane]

Here is the error for Ian so far

AVNO is GFS

https://i.imgur.com/JOlQiFj.png

source: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

Wow the GFS is really bobbing out on this one. Remember when it had it hitting the panhandle?

[tolakram]

Here is the error for Ian so far

AVNO is GFS

https://i.imgur.com/JOlQiFj.png

source: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

Wow the GFS is really bobbing out on this one. Remember when it had it hitting the panhandle?

Overall the GFS has been closer to the actual position, but those actuals haven't occurred yet. So the way I read this is in 36 hours which current position estimate is going to be closest. The GFS has been killing it for under 48 hours.

[StormingB81]

Where does the Euro go after landfall?

[CronkPSU]

Where does the Euro go after landfall?

 https://twitter.com/EricBurrisWESH/status/1574832845209702402

[tolakram]

No reliable model has Ian going into the Atlantic ... until now.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro landfall

[tolakram]

[GeneratorPower]

12Z Euro landfall
https://i.imgur.com/1O5n9aY.png

Nightmare for Fort Myers. Specifically along the Caloosahatchee River in Fort Myers Shores.

[tolakram]

Euro trek across the state.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[tolakram]

Euro total precip

[Kohlecane]

12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/ofLd5fo.gif

Strong TS/Cat 1 into Savannah that would be rare

[skyline385]

12Z EPS




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[Bocadude85]

18z TVCN shifts southeast to Port Charlotte/Englewood

[LarryWx]

UK Met is a not a reliable model its an outlier. That would most definitely eff up my evec plans.
Please no.

The model has done well the last few days sniffing out this east trend, could have the best handle on the steering flow.

This is the key. For THIS storm rather than for all storms, the UKMET has been the best by a good margin. In general, it has done poorly in many cases just as has been the case for other models. But it has been stellar for Ian. For the last 11 runs dating back to the 0Z of Sunday, it has been south of Tampa. No other model has been close to doing that. The other models have been playing catchup. The UKMET has been ahead of these others for nearly 3 days!

[SFLcane]

Great post a Larry I to think the Ukmet might have this one nailed.

[NDG]

18z TVCN shifts southeast to Port Charlotte/Englewood

[skyline385]

UK Met is a not a reliable model its an outlier. That would most definitely eff up my evec plans.
Please no.

The model has done well the last few days sniffing out this east trend, could have the best handle on the steering flow.

This is the key. For THIS storm rather than for all storms, the UKMET has been the best by a good margin. In general, it has done poorly in many cases just as has been the case for other models. But it has been stellar for Ian. For the last 11 runs dating back to the 0Z of Sunday, it has been south of Tampa. No other model has been close to doing that. The other models have been playing catchup. The UKMET has been ahead of these others for nearly 3 days!

You can see the current model verification at

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/t ... /al092022/

GFS has been the best upto 48 hours followed by (weirdly enough) CMC with UKMET in second for 72 & 96 hours. Think folks are just noticing the UKMET more because it was always east biased and the storm is trending east now.




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[Beef Stew]

Not to sound the alarm, but- should these faster, southeastern trends continue, there would be a serious risk of coastal flooding along the northern coast of FL through GA and SC down the road.

[SouthernBreeze]

Not to sound the alarm, but- should these faster, southeastern trends continue, there would be a serious risk of coastal flooding along the northern coast of FL through GA and SC down the road.

Definitely. And would a more south trend allow Ian to get farther out into warmer Atlantic? It could definitely have more time over water before next landfall