ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Ian is probably at 105 kts. Definitely strengthening now.

[NDG]

I can imagine the panic that is developing on the Florida coast.

Part of me wants to head into it. You see people at their best… and absolute worst.

200-mile traffic jams are not your friend. I’ll bet they are starting to form now.

I’ve bailed on storms that turned away at the last moment. 6 hours before a storm there ain’t no traffic on the highways. Everyone is gone. But you risk closed bridges and such.

Speaking only for myself and because I’m comfortable with risk I’d leave later rather than sooner. I don’t like being a part of the evacuation. But that is only me.

There are many in the path without the resources to leave.

Chuck

Eastbound 4 is absolutely jammed. 2.5 hours to get from Tampa to Orlando right now.

I told my sister to wait until late tonight to leave St Pete and to take I-75 to SR 50 to come to Orlando.

[MarioProtVI]

VHTs developing again on the N and S eyewalls. Also apparent on radar. This coupled with the quick drop in pressure again means it’s about to take off again and a high end C4 peak is likely. Probably 130-135 kt. If trough interaction works favorably that C5 isn’t out of the question (and then it’s literally the “Hurricane Phoenix” scenario imagined a decade ago)

[Fancy1001]

VHTs developing again on the N and S eyewalls. Also apparent on radar. This coupled with the quick drop in pressure again means it’s about to take off again and a high end C4 peak is likely. Probably 130-135 kt. If trough interaction works favorably that C5 isn’t out of the question (and then it’s literally the “Hurricane Phoenix” scenario imagined a decade ago)

Not really, hurricane Phoenix is a direct hit into the Tampa bay.

[Meteorcane]

NHC not expecting Ian to weaken much prior to landfall. From the 11am discussion:

The hurricane should remain in a favorable environment for
restrengthening over the next day or so while it moves over the warm
waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in light-shear
conditions. While the shear should increase by tomorrow, it isn't
expected to be enough to significantly weaken the hurricane before
landfall. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this
scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for an
extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida.

The further south and/or sooner it comes onshore the less weakening would be expected before landfall. As if tracks NErly relatively quickly its motion will be briefly aligned with the SWrly shear vector (good for outflow), it would experience less intrusion of the dry air to its north, and simply by making landfall sooner would by definition have less time to weaken. Now if it ends up being left behind and drifts north slowly while still offshore that would result in the weakest landfall.

[MGC]

When I evacuated for Katrina we took the back roads and didn't have any problems. I-10 was gridlocked to Mobile.....MGC

[Beef Stew]

One thing that keeps crossing my mind with Ian is the timeframe we’re dealing with regards to RI and possible EWRC’s. Storms such as Ida, Laura, Michael, Charley, etc that intensified right up to land underwent the bulk of their RI upon reaching peak environmental conditions within the last 12 hours leading up to landfall. They didn’t have time to initiate a full on EWRC (although some, like Ida, were well on their way to starting one), and the result was a stronger storm with a somewhat smaller wind field. Here with Ian, we still have over 24 hours remaining, give or take, until landfall- it’s quite reasonable that we could see a RI phase terminating with an EWRC, with a fair share of time left over water after completion. Re-intensification then would be a possibility, and you’d end up with the worst of both worlds- an expanded wind field and an intensifying storm.

This is by no means a prediction, and I realize I’ve taken some liberties and made some assumptions here to simplify this thought. At the end of the day, EWRC’s are a bit of a wild card, and there are far more variables at play here- but I can’t help but think Ian might just have enough of a window for two bouts of intensification.

[GCANE]

Eye drop 35 min ago has 84% RH at 850mb
Beginning to dry out.
Looks like we'll get a ERWC soon.

[aspen]

The other AF plane is turning around just outside of Ian for some reason. Maybe an instrument broke and it’s heading back to base, or it’s re-adjusting its flight trajectory relative to the first AF plane, or they’re going to rescue a sinking boat like what happened during Lorenzo.

[zal0phus]

VHTs developing again on the N and S eyewalls. Also apparent on radar. This coupled with the quick drop in pressure again means it’s about to take off again and a high end C4 peak is likely. Probably 130-135 kt. If trough interaction works favorably that C5 isn’t out of the question (and then it’s literally the “Hurricane Phoenix” scenario imagined a decade ago)

Not really, hurricane Phoenix is a direct hit into the Tampa bay.

Unfortunately we don't quite know if that's entirely off the table yet. Nobody in Tampa should be letting their guards down here

[Rail Dawg]

Guys Hurricane Michael hit Panama City with 185mph gusts at landfall when 8 hrs earlier the NHC had it landfalling as a Cat 2. That wasn’t too long ago.

Chuck

[Fancy1001]

Eye drop 35 min ago has 84% RH at 850mb
Beginning to dry out.
Looks like we'll get a ERWC soon.

The later it starts the better.

[Fancy1001]

Guys Hurricane Michael hit Panama City with 185mph gusts at landfall when 8 hrs earlier the NHC had it landfalling as a Cat 2. That wasn’t too long ago.

Chuck

Just out of curiosity, why do you keep ending all of your messages with Chuck?

[chargurl]

Question: As I watch models pass Florida's water inlets and harbors of W. coast, I'm wondering if tide times affect hurricanes and can add in changing direction. ie. Would low tide pull it closer to land and high tide push away from land?

[weeniepatrol]

Unfortunately, seeing equatorward outflow increase

[aspen]

Eye drop 35 min ago has 84% RH at 850mb
Beginning to dry out.
Looks like we'll get a ERWC soon.

Now the question is how long it’ll take for the EWRC to start. Radar imagery doesn’t really have a true outer eyewall yet, just strong bands trying to form the beginning of one, and there isn’t much of a double wind maxima either. Just some small wind spikes correlating with those bands. A correctly timed EWRC with increasing shear could cause a significant weakening phase before Ian makes landfall.

[cycloneye]

Down to 957 mbs.

951
URNT12 KNHC 271749
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022
A. 27/17:07:10Z
B. 23.36 deg N 083.38 deg W
C. 700 mb 2713 m
D. 957 mb
E. 115 deg 21 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C18
H. 101 kt
I. 059 deg 6 nm 17:05:00Z
J. 146 deg 101 kt
K. 052 deg 9 nm 17:04:00Z
L. 96 kt
M. 105 deg 9 nm 17:11:00Z
N. 199 deg 109 kt
O. 102 deg 11 nm 17:11:30Z
P. 9 C / 3056 m
Q. 18 C / 3038 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1.25 nm
U. AF302 2109A IAN OB 25
MAX FL WIND 109 KT 102 / 11 NM 17:11:30Z

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1574819876253810689

[eastcoastFL]

Guys Hurricane Michael hit Panama City with 185mph gusts at landfall when 8 hrs earlier the NHC had it landfalling as a Cat 2. That wasn’t too long ago.

Chuck

Just out of curiosity, why do you keep ending all of your messages with Chuck?

His name is Chuck.

[NDG]

When I evacuated for Katrina we took the back roads and didn't have any problems. I-10 was gridlocked to Mobile.....MGC

I lived in Nola during Katrina, we waited until 11 PM 36 hrs before landfall to head for Baton Rouge on I-10, it was almost non stop, we were there in no time.
It never fails that most people all want to evacuate during the middle of the day, which is what causes the huge jams.