ATL: EARL - Models
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
EURO, CMC, Ukmet all take a weaker shallow system W and starts to strengthen near Bahamas. It’s certainly possible and the next few model runs will be interesting.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Blown Away wrote:EURO, CMC, Ukmet all take a weaker shallow system W and starts to strengthen near Bahamas. It’s certainly possible and the next few model runs will be interesting.
Until it has passed our latitude here in South Florida anything is possible. Certainly a situation where a weaker system ends up further west then blows up at the last minute is a way to maybe have this cause us an issue. Like you said, subsequent model runs will be interesting and since we are still maybe 8-10 days out, anything is possible.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Should have a few days tracking west under the ridge now that the TUTTS are weakening.
Will the environment be moist enough for development and if it does develop will there be a trough that breaks the ridge for a recurve before -73 west?
Will the environment be moist enough for development and if it does develop will there be a trough that breaks the ridge for a recurve before -73 west?
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Weak ICON 18Z run as well, think the possibility of 91L drifting westwards as a weak system is going up
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Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
skyline385 wrote:Weak ICON 18Z run as well, think the possibility of 91L drifting westwards as a weak system is going up
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Icon fully recurves before 70w even weak.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
CMC/GFS keep pushing back intensification and GFS has been trending downward as well over the last several runs. Aug 26 run had this as a 990mb TS/H now, Aug 30 run for 60h from now (when it's more conclusively a TS on the latest run) had 981mb, and at 100h where GFS brings it to hurricane now, Aug 31 run had 961.
Fittingly, the NAM (which develops literally everything) is the only one trending stronger.
Fittingly, the NAM (which develops literally everything) is the only one trending stronger.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
The 18z HWRF and HMON never loaded for 91L and only 91L. Weird.
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
18z Euro very similar to the 12z through 72 hours.
NCEP models are on their own so far.
We'll see if that changes at 00z.
NCEP models are on their own so far.
We'll see if that changes at 00z.
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
SFLcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Weak ICON 18Z run as well, think the possibility of 91L drifting westwards as a weak system is going up
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Icon fully recurves before 70w even weak.
Yes but it is a step in the direction of the Euro and CMC. 12Z ECMWF yesterday was a slow weak system which recurved, now today its drifting westwards. Models generally tend to gradually move towards a different solution.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Kingarabian wrote:18z Euro very similar to the 12z through 72 hours.
NCEP models are on their own so far.
We'll see if that changes at 00z.
Which model runs will incorporate the recon data, 00z or 06z?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Hammy wrote:Kingarabian wrote:18z Euro very similar to the 12z through 72 hours.
NCEP models are on their own so far.
We'll see if that changes at 00z.
Which model runs will incorporate the recon data, 00z or 06z?
Typically, the 00z/12z models suite incorporate the RECON/Bouy data.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
BobHarlem wrote:0z icon trending west again
(Trend over last 4 runs):
https://i.imgur.com/TPH9RDM.gif
Yeah major shift. Looks stalled out..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
blp wrote:BobHarlem wrote:0z icon trending west again
(Trend over last 4 runs):
https://i.imgur.com/TPH9RDM.gif
Yeah major shift. Looks stalled out..
Did start to recurve, but at the end of the run the 12z icon was at 56W, and 0z is at 68W, very large shift west on this run and moving at a snails pace.
Also the 0z GFS so far is notably shifting left also around 51 hours out, but seems to get more aligned with 18z a little later at 66 hours out and actually has it stronger than 18z.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:00 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
blp wrote:BobHarlem wrote:0z icon trending west again
(Trend over last 4 runs):
https://i.imgur.com/TPH9RDM.gif
Yeah major shift. Looks stalled out..
Way west and, more significantly, it wasn't totally caused by the system degenerating into a wave. We might be tracking this thing forever
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
I wonder if this has implications with the 9/6 wave coming off Africa.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
GFS actually trended stronger this run, 10mb stronger at 72h
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:I wonder if this has implications with the 9/6 wave coming off Africa.
just noticed your signature and I dont want to be that guy but its TVCN not TCVN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Hammy wrote:GFS actually trended stronger this run, 10mb stronger at 72h
My sense is that the GFS is going to stay the course on this run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
sma10 wrote:Hammy wrote:GFS actually trended stronger this run, 10mb stronger at 72h
My sense is that the GFS is going to stay the course on this run
GFS has been trending weaker over the last 10-15 runs or so so this is actually a notable change. CMC also has a discernable TD/TS by Saturday morning for the first time in 48 hours (it too has been trending weaker)
Seems this afternoon's organization may have pushed up any timeline some so the Euro run tonight will be telling.
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