ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif
Is it just me or is Ian currently a bit to the east of the NHC's track?

He stays east of the track. He doesn’t care if the NHC moves the track east either, he will just move over again.

[eastcoastFL]

Guess the bright side is the intensity models don’t really see this getting any higher than a high end cat 3 for the most part.

[ThunderForce]

According to the NHC, it seems that Ian is now moving NNE at 10 MPH.

[Poonwalker]

Reminds me of Katrina but on a west central Florida track. Stay safe people.

Katrina was freaking massive. Go look at the IR presentation at her peak in the gulf. The CDO was bigger than the Florida peninsula and her tropical storm force winds extended 230 miles from the center. Fortunately Ian is not nearly so large, with TS winds currently "only" as far as 140 miles.

Whoa. I looked like you said and you are right. Katrina at her peak was enormous before the last 50 miles. Hope Ian doesn’t explode like that.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Guess the bright side is the intensity models don’t really see this getting any higher than a high end cat 3 for the most part.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_latest.png

FYI - HWRF does show an intensification burst tonight. So does the NHC forecast.

[eastcoastFL]

According to the NHC, it seems that Ian is now moving NNE at 10 MPH.

Is that updated or the one from 8pm?

[setxsunshine]

I feel for all of you in Ian's path. I know many of you have been through this before and for newbies, hang in there. I have experience with Rita, Ike and Harvey so just know we understand and are praying for you.

[eastcoastFL]

Guess the bright side is the intensity models don’t really see this getting any higher than a high end cat 3 for the most part.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_latest.png

FYI - HWRF does show an intensification burst tonight. So does the NHC forecast.

I saw that HWRF run and that was terrifying. I hope that doesn’t verify.

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
900 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h). A
private weather station near Coco Plum Beach, near Marathon,
recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust to
47 mph (75 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 83.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

[eastcoastFL]

9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h). A
private weather station near Coco Plum Beach, near Marathon,
recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust to
47 mph (75 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 83.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

[ThunderForce]

According to the NHC, it seems that Ian is now moving NNE at 10 MPH.

Is that updated or the one from 8pm?

Yeah, it's the update they had at 8 P.M.

[eastcoastFL]

According to the NHC, it seems that Ian is now moving NNE at 10 MPH.

Is that updated or the one from 8pm?

Yeah, it's the update they had at 8 P.M.

9pm just came out, still same heading and speed.

[cheezyWXguy]

Reminds me of Katrina but on a west central Florida track. Stay safe people.

Katrina was freaking massive. Go look at the IR presentation at her peak in the gulf. The CDO was bigger than the Florida peninsula and her tropical storm force winds extended 230 miles from the center. Fortunately Ian is not nearly so large, with TS winds currently "only" as far as 140 miles.

Whoa. I looked like you said and you are right. Katrina at her peak was enormous before the last 50 miles. Hope Ian doesn’t explode like that.

No chance. Katrina was immensely larger, at one point having hurricane winds extending 100 miles from the center.

[meriland29]

Guess the bright side is the intensity models don’t really see this getting any higher than a high end cat 3 for the most part.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_latest.png

Hopefully this pans out. That being said, it really seems the intensity forecast on this thing has been notably far off this far. It's anyones guess how this will react in the coming hours with an almost finished EWRC, and nothing else in it's way.

[Hurricane Mike]

Is it possible that Ian makes a first landfall on the Dry Tortugas?

[Iceresistance]

AF302 is not turning back at all, they're booking it at 320 knots (368.25 mph)!

[eastcoastFL]

Guess the bright side is the intensity models don’t really see this getting any higher than a high end cat 3 for the most part.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_latest.png

Hopefully this pans out. That being said, it really seems the intensity forecast on this thing has been notably far off this far. It's anyones guess how this will react in the coming hours with an almost finished EWRC, and nothing else in it's way.

Ya, intensity is a tough one to figure out. So many potential variables that can change so fast.

[Rail Dawg]

My 3-legged dog Marley (now deceased) and I were in a parking lot garage in Naples, FL for Hurricane Irma. The eye passed right over us. 145mph winds?

First time in 16 hurricanes I heard and saw the Fists of God. Heard and saw them again in Michael. They are what destroy one tree but not another. One house but not the one next door. You have to see and feel them live to understand. Only in big big storms.

Cuomo on CNN was in his plush hotel room in Naples and I was with Marley the 3-legged dog down in the street when the eye passed over.

He (on live TV) tried to lecture me a bit from his perch above me. Asked me if my legal survival knife was big enough. It’s out there on You Tube somewhere but I made it clear I wasn’t too interested in being on camera. I just wanted to see downtown Naples before the opposite winds came.

It’s going to get very interesting very soon.

Chuck

[Beef Stew]

Is it possible that Ian makes a first landfall on the Dry Tortugas?

Certainly possible; it’ll be close.

[Iceresistance]

Tornado warning for Boca Raton, FL!