EPAC: DARBY - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952022 07/09/22 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 42 47 55 61 67 69 66 60 55 49 40 33 25 17
V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 42 47 55 61 67 69 66 60 55 49 40 33 25 17
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 40 41 44 47 48 45 40 33 26 20 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 5 5 1 11 11 4 6 11 15 26 29 27 30 32
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -2 2 1 4 -3 -5 -1 0 1 4 4 2 0 1 5
SHEAR DIR 310 292 290 285 271 20 66 55 13 292 280 241 234 252 269 251 241
SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.9 28.4 28.2 27.6 27.3 26.4 25.2 24.7 24.8 24.3 24.1 24.5 24.6 25.0
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 145 150 148 141 138 128 116 111 112 107 105 109 110 114
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 -55.1 -55.7
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5
700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 72 72 74 74 73 68 65 62 58 52 45 40 36 35
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 11 13 13 16 17 17 16 15 15 12 10 8 5
850 MB ENV VOR 1 -2 -10 -20 -14 0 0 2 -4 2 -4 10 15 21 10 3 -12
200 MB DIV 0 -1 18 11 29 60 25 33 40 49 44 35 4 -6 -2 33 21
700-850 TADV 5 2 -1 0 4 4 3 0 0 0 2 7 7 16 8 9 10
LAND (KM) 1011 1047 1108 1216 1337 1538 1761 1941 2060 2201 2188 1885 1572 1259 963 669 397
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 112.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 15 15 14 13 11 11 12 14 14 14 14 13 13 12
HEAT CONTENT 15 24 23 13 25 14 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 24. 22. 21. 20. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 17. 25. 31. 37. 39. 36. 30. 25. 19. 10. 3. -5. -13.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 112.8

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952022 INVEST 07/09/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 5.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 4.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 25.9% 20.8% 19.3% 0.0% 20.3% 17.2% 15.2%
Logistic: 49.7% 76.0% 61.0% 53.3% 30.5% 56.7% 13.6% 18.2%
Bayesian: 1.8% 42.8% 4.9% 1.9% 1.3% 13.1% 4.7% 0.0%
Consensus: 21.0% 48.2% 28.9% 24.8% 10.6% 30.0% 11.8% 11.2%
DTOPS: 2.0% 12.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 13.0% 24.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952022 INVEST 07/09/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[weeniepatrol]

Hmmm... probably classifiable...

[aspen]

Hmmm... probably classifiable...

https://imgur.com/G3aDu2R

Bruh there’s an eye. If they don’t pull the trigger at 5, then the NHC is entering IMB territory with 94E. Maybe if they wait long enough, 94E will be the first ever system to go straight from an invest to a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Loop of TCG.

[MississippiWx]

Ummm, an eye is forming on this and it’s an invest? Could you imagine the uproar if this was in the Atlantic?

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1545861094698360832

[aspen]

Looks like there’s a developing eyewall on a 14z microwave pass.

[zzh]

EP052022 - Tropical Depression FIVE

[cycloneye]

EP, 05, 2022070918, 01, CARQ, 0, 142N, 1128W, 30, 1008, TD

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like there’s a developing eyewall on a 14z microwave pass.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2022ep95/amsusr89/2022ep95_amsusr89_202207091436.gif

Cyan ring here around 9z may have been a warning sign.

[skyline385]

We are way past the TD stage here lol

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1545863981671321609

[aspen]

EP052022 - Tropical Depression FIVE

Better than nothing, but this is probably 6-12 hours late and as much as 30-35 kt underestimated.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1545865464911482882

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1545869515392782336

[aspen]

"Tropical Depression 5"


If it's already on the cusp of becoming a hurricane now, and with something like 84-96 hours left until it passes into sub-27C waters, this could surpass Bonnie's peak very soon.

EDIT: upgraded to TS Darby as I was posting this

[zzh]

EP, 05, 2022070918, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1128W, 35, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 20, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DARBY, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, TRANSITIONED, epA52022 to ep052022,

[cycloneye]

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY...

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY...

Monday is an interesting way to say by tomorrow morning, if not tonight given current trends. Talk about being caught off-guard by rapid TCG.

Interesting to see the forecast only top out at 80kt regardless despite the good forecasted environment for the next 3-4 days, and with the well-organized structure in place, I don't see a reason for this to not surpass that forecast peak by Monday evening, if not sooner. Really feels like they weren't anticipating the current development well and are going to need a few advisories to catch up, so to speak.

Definitely something for reanalysis to dive into after the season.

[skyline385]

Probably going to be capped, especially after it starts turning north