ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

I could see this hitting Texas but more like the McAllen to Brownsville area is the farthest north I could see this

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is emerging over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico and it continues to produce disorganized shower activity.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow development, and
a tropical depression could form while the system moves
northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late today or
on Saturday. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to
move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of
development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Sciencerocks]

[REDHurricane]

700mb vorticity



850mb vorticity



925mb vorticity



Looks like it's really ramped up the low level vorticity just in the last few hours, right as it's about to enter the warmest part of the Gulf. If this system can get 36+ hours over water like all of the models are predicting, it looks like the only things standing in the way of development into Danielle are a bit of wind shear and, most importantly, time. I'd say at this point there's a 50% chance this turns into a decent TS and a 50% chance this is a repeat of 98L, where if the system could have just stayed over the Gulf for a few more hours we'd finally have gotten another named storm. The models seem to have a good grasp on where this thing is headed, but because it's approaching land at such a sharp angle, any small deviation from its projected path could end up making all the difference here.

[Nimbus]

Convection in the BOC this morning may mark the center of the lowest surface pressure.
Front already digging south of Houston into the gulf this morning apparently not forecast to linger.
Upper air flow over the TD will remain from the south or southwest until that front moves east.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico and the Bay of Campeche is producing poorly organized shower
activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow
development, and a tropical depression could form late today or on
Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, by Saturday night, the system
is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end
its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1560606474191060993

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2022081912, , BEST, 0, 196N, 928W, 20, 1009, DB

[InfernoFlameCat]

Convection still seems aligned as a wave axis. However, the system looks promising. Now is when the wave will make or break.

[skyline385]

Looking pretty decent right now




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[BobHarlem]

Odds of a PTC advisory with this one, or will it depend on Recon, although if they wait for recon it could just start out as a TD? Looking at satellite, I'd venture to say the recon mission will happen.

[aspen]

When’s recon set to go out?

[Aric Dunn]

Recon should find our new TD.

[Sciencerocks]

[MississippiWx]

The Bay of Campeche is doing its thing. Looks like a small tropical cyclone in the making.

[BobHarlem]

When’s recon set to go out?

Scheduled for 18z fix. So around 15:15z (11:15am edt) its scheduled to leave, and should be near the system around 2pm EDT or least in time for a potential 5pm advisory. 99l recon thread will have the details.

[skyline385]

Models have been just so bad this year in the NATL, 99L going to just enforce that.


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[Category5Kaiju]

Models have been just so bad this year in the NATL, 99L going to just enforce that.


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Only this time, it seems to not be a ghost storm

[skyline385]

Models have been just so bad this year in the NATL, 99L going to just enforce that.


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Only this time, it seems to not be a ghost storm

Yea the GFS in particular kept flinging majors into the Caribbean and Gulf and then completely busts on 99L. Still let’s wait for the recon to confirm.


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