WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1563982902152597509

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1563984845537439744

[aspen]

This has some huge potential. It’s organizing very fast, the HWRF is the most bullish it’s been in ages, and it has several days over 30-31C SSTs before slow forward motion and upwelling become problems. Even the name sounds like that of an extremely powerful storm.

[ElectricStorm]

This has a great chance to become the first super of the season. Seems like a pretty odd track for being that far north

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1563994226031214592

[Yellow Evan]

`TPPN13 PGTW 282100

A. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HINNAMNOR)

B. 28/2030Z

C. 27.28N

D. 145.98E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/21HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS

[Hayabusa]

12z multi

[doomhaMwx]

While JTWC is already expecting a category 4, all I'm seeing from JMA is a peak of 65kts/980mb in 5 days. What the heck are they looking at? JMA track is more in line with JTWC now though.

T2211(Hinnamnor)
Issued at 2022/08/28 21:45 UTC

Analysis at 08/28 21 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°25′ (27.4°)
E146°05′ (146.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE330 km (180 NM)
SW165 km (90 NM)

Forecast for 08/29 09 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°05′ (28.1°)
E143°35′ (143.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 75 km (40 NM)

Forecast for 08/29 21 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°30′ (28.5°)
E140°10′ (140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 105 km (57 NM)

Forecast for 08/30 18 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°40′ (28.7°)
E134°55′ (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (105 NM)

Forecast for 08/31 18 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°20′ (28.3°)
E131°55′ (131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 300 km (160 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 330 km (180 NM)

Forecast for 09/01 18 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°40′ (27.7°)
E129°25′ (129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 530 km (285 NM)

Forecast for 09/02 18 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°55′ (26.9°)
E127°20′ (127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slow
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (360 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 700 km (380 NM)

CMA makes more sense, with a typhoon later today.

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 282100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS HINNAMNOR 2211 (2211) INITIAL TIME 282100 UTC
00HR 27.4N 146.1E 982HPA 28M/S
30KTS WINDS 180KM NORTHEAST
220KM SOUTHEAST
180KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 30KM NORTHEAST
30KM SOUTHEAST
30KM SOUTHWEST
30KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 28KM/H
P+12HR 27.8N 142.8E 975HPA 33M/S
P+24HR 27.9N 138.9E 970HPA 35M/S
P+36HR 27.8N 136.5E 970HPA 35M/S
P+48HR 27.8N 134.0E 965HPA 38M/S
P+60HR 27.7N 132.4E 960HPA 40M/S
P+72HR 27.4N 130.9E 955HPA 42M/S
P+96HR 27.0N 129.6E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 26.2N 128.1E 945HPA 48M/S=
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

This has a great chance to become the first super of the season. Seems like a pretty odd track for being that far north

A lot of odd stuff can happen in the WPAC subtropics.

Lionrock 2016

Noru 2017

[ElectricStorm]

This has a great chance to become the first super of the season. Seems like a pretty odd track for being that far north

A lot of odd stuff can happen in the WPAC subtropics.

Lionrock 2016
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7c/Lionrock_2016_track.png/800px-Lionrock_2016_track.png
Noru 2017
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/05/Noru_2017_track.png/800px-Noru_2017_track.png

Yep I remember both of those, crazy stuff

[doomhaMwx]

Hinnamnor continues to look better organized. Latest microwave pass reveals tightly-curved banding wrapping nicely into the center of the compact storm. The system should be close to typhoon intensity, if not already. Might even see some pinhole eye action today.

[StormTracker89]

Hinnamnor continues to look better organized. Latest microwave pass reveals tightly-curved banding wrapping nicely into the center of the compact storm. The system should be close to typhoon intensity, if not already. Might even see some pinhole eye action today.

https://i.imgur.com/nJjPNy3.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/jBGbwIt.jpg

Already starting to pop an eye in the Enhanced IR imagery.

[aspen]

Oh boy, rotating hot towers. This is going to take off like crazy tonight. I won't be too surprised if I wake up to a major (or something close to MH intensity) tomorrow morning.

[Yellow Evan]

Microwave has a low level core complete. For once a tropical cyclone intensifying at an extremely fast rate.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN13 PGTW 290007

A. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HINNAMNOR)

B. 28/2330Z

C. 27.36N

D. 145.44E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS

[cycloneye]

12W HINNAMNOR 220829 0000 27.3N 145.3E WPAC 55 990

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/derrickherndon2/status/1564059125939687430

[Ed_2001]

Only a little more than a week ago it looked as if wpac would potentially stay quiet through the end of August and absolutely shatter records for inactivity. Then finally came Ma-On, Tokage and now we have this potential ACE mass producer. The Atlantic could be on the verge of awakening too. The climatological peak of NHEM cyclone season is finally starting to show itself.

[Hayabusa]

18Z EPS, ensembles are tracking as south as over the Batanes area

[USTropics]

This has got to be one of the most ridiculous modeled runs I've ever seen and hopefully just stays that way (modeled):